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Viewpoint | how long can the waist and tail of the new forces of building cars last?

2021-08-31 16:05:42 Heart of machine

In the near future , Yan Yan, a famous investor, said , The collapse of the new forces of car making will not be far away , Most of them will die , Only a few oligarchs survived .
sweep , When an industry goes through the early stages of savage growth , Stepping into the fast lane of mature development , The intensification of differentiation between brands will be inevitable , The head aggregation effect of resources will become more and more obvious , So is the new energy track .
Market competition is speeding up ,「 Wei Xiaoli 」 The pattern of firmly ranking the first echelon of new forces in domestic car making has taken shape , These three auto companies are taking advantage of the trend of new energy to reap the imagination space of becoming mainstream brands in the market .
In a turbulent environment , How many opportunities are left for other echelons ?
Joys and sorrows of different new forces
Sales performance is the best reference to measure the status of auto enterprises , Published by China Automobile Association 2020 year 7 In the monthly sales list of new forces brands , We can find that the interior of the second echelon of newly built vehicles has 「 Fire and ice are two days 」.


Nezha and zero Pao were elated , More than the 2020 Weima, which ranked fourth in new car sales in , Among them, Nezha Yi 6253 The car's performance won the sales pole of the second echelon , Xiaopeng is only... Away from the third place 1479 The gap between cars .

The corresponding is Gaohe 、 Horizon 、 Sailux 、 The sales of Jihu are 1000 Less than , Aichi failed to make the list .
Nezha's success in sales benefits from accurately filling the gap in the new energy market . About the development of new energy market , The consensus in the automotive industry is that the early market will become 「 Dumbbell type 」, That is, micro electric vehicles and high-end electric vehicles are the main force in the early market , Wuling macro light MINI EV And Tesla Model 3 That is the boundary , Between the two, there is a large market gap .
However, in the turbulent new energy market , This route is actually not very competitive . It is different from that which has been firmly rooted 「 Wei Xiaoli 」, The second echelon headed by Nezha , Mainly through penetration pricing strategy 、 Avoid competition with mainstream products , To capture the gaps in the stock market 「 Leak collection 」 Behavior , Rather than the real advantage of the product or marketing level .


Which zha V To surpass Hongguang MINI EV Of 5.99-7.69 All price , Provide consumers with larger four door electric vehicles , It has opened up a fertile land for survival in the market gap . It was Nezha V Driven by the power of , Nezha is 7 The sales volume reached a new high in January , Monthly sales breakthrough for the first time 6000 car . The market strategy of zero running is similar to that of Nezha , Its main sales force T03 The price is 5.98-7.58 Ten thousand yuan , I also ate 5-8 Bonus of 10000 yuan market segment .

But the potential of the new energy vehicle market is well known , It is not only the development focus of the industry layout for many years , Internet 、 Real estate, etc 「 Layman 」 Also compete to get in first . 「 Dumbbell type 」 The structure is difficult to sustain in this environment , If you want to tap the profit space in the blue ocean market, it may narrow rapidly .


Weima is a special one , This early player of newly built cars who was favored by capital , He has also achieved the highest monthly sales of new forces , But now 「 Commit to 」 In the second tier .

Goodway 1-7 The cumulative monthly sales reached 19806 car , The overall performance is OK , But more than half B End travel market launch , The gold content of Weima's sales is greatly reduced . In addition, the main models W6 The monthly sales of less than 1000 vehicles , It also led to the slowdown of Weima brand's upward and plans to improve bicycle profits , It hinders the progress of entering the positive cycle of more efficient research, production and marketing . But Weima is thankful ,Ta Still on the card table of the electric car , There is still a chance to play cards .


by comparison , The situation of other brands is more difficult and dangerous .

Design orientation and Wei Lai ES6 Quite a skyline ME7 , Missed the market dividend period due to repeated ticket flipping , The delayed launch also reduces the product power and dissemination in a disguised form , When the selling price is lowered to 30 Within ten thousand yuan , Has yet to stir up market ripples .
A new force of car building 「 A pioneer at sea 」 Love Chi is the thunder, the rain is small ,「 Raise high and fight high 」 It is hard to be optimistic about the market prospect of Gaohe .
There are wolves in front , After that, there are tigers !
Building a car is a very high threshold project , It costs a lot of money . Wei Lai automobile CEO Li Bin said 「 No, 200 Don't try to build a car 」, And in Xiaopeng car CEO According to he Xiaopeng ,「 If a car is built from 0 To 1 Your entry needs 200 Billion , Next, develop 、 Globalization 、 Organizational structure expansion requires at least 300 One hundred million yuan 」.
「 Wei Xiaoli 」 In the first echelon of newly built cars in China , And in 2020 After the U.S. stock market was fully listed in , We are still actively promoting the listing of Hong Kong stocks . among , Wei Lai this year 4 In June, it was announced that it planned to go to Hong Kong for secondary listing , The selection process of ideal and Xiaopeng is more complex 、 Limit more dual listings , We have to catch up with 7 The Hong Kong stock market was completed in June IPO, And does not rule out the future in A The possibility of listing shares .


Wei xiaolizhadui Hong Kong stocks IPO, The reason behind this is that at present, new energy is in the tuyere period , Through the Hong Kong stock market, we can further connect with mainland capital , And Chinese stocks are in the United States An increasingly difficult survival situation , And further pushing the backflow process . The deeper driving force is to go public to raise funds as soon as possible , Stockpile ammunition for the next round of competition .

The ideal car is in 2 In the internal staff letter in June, it was mentioned that , Reference resources 2020 China's smartphone market share in , The top five brands occupy 96.5% Market share .2030 The market competition and share of intelligent electric vehicles in will be very similar , Only get 25% More than 100% of the global market share , Only then can we have the opportunity to become the leading enterprise in the global intelligent electric vehicle industry .
Based on this , The ideal was announced 2025 year 160 Sales target of 10000 new energy vehicles , And announce in the Hong Kong stock prospectus that it will start from 2023 Since, at least two high-voltage pure electric models have been launched every year . Wei Lai also announced at the second quarter earnings conference just in the past based on NT 2.0 Three models of the platform . Xiaopeng's next generation platform and the second phase of Zhaoqing factory have also been started .


「 Wei Xiaoli 」 It's speeding up , Tesla and traditional fuel vehicle giants are also making .

Tesla starts at as low as 27.6 Ten thousand yuan Model Y Soon after the new model caused the rim vibration , Standard endurance upgrade Model 3 Due to the localization of the motor, the selling price was reduced to 23.59 Ten thousand yuan , Or for 「Model 2」 More entry-level models are also on the road , The leader is compressing the living space of other brands .
The public brings MEB The platform and ID. series , And this year, we will hold power days and release 2030「NEW AUTO」 strategic . Toyota also launched e-TNGA Pure electric exclusive architecture , Start embracing electrification .
A fact on the table is , The first echelon of new cars, which is already leading, is accelerating , Tesla and traditional fuel vehicle giants are also entering the game , Competition in the new energy market is intensifying .
「 The hourglass of the times 」 How many are left? ?
Although there are many challenges ahead , But opportunities also accompany them .
New energy is opening the best era , stay 2020 Sales in the global auto market fell in 20% In a big environment , New energy electric vehicles have bucked the trend , Sales growth 41%.2021 year 7 month , The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles has broken through 9%, And China has reached 14.8%.


meanwhile , according to IHS Markit The forecast ,2030 The sales volume of China's new energy market is expected to exceed 1300 Thousands of cars , and 15-20 The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainstream market of 10000 yuan will also be significantly improved , The new energy market structure will gradually change from 「 Dumbbell type 」 towards 「 Spinning cone type 」 shift .


For the past few years planning 了 2022-2023 Car companies that launched heavy models in , This round of industry dividends are waving to them . So far , In the second echelon of newly built cars, only Nezha 、 Zero run and Weima have such potential .

Nezha got 360 The group 30 One hundred million yuan D Round of funding , Plus before 6 Round of funding , Accumulated obtained 112.5 A hundred million yuan injection . More importantly, Nezha is building its own brand gene , adopt 360 In big data 、 Cloud computing 、AI Artificial intelligence 、 Network security and other support , make 10-20 A cheap intelligent model with a price of 10000 yuan ,「 Bring experience equality with equal rights in science and Technology 」 The strategy of , Will make Nezha break away from 「 Leak collection 」 Survival dilemma , Enter a more potential development path .


Zero run won Zhejiang Dahua in the Internet of things 、 While providing technical support in image recognition and other fields , Will launch 15.98-19.98 A Zero run of 10000 yuan C11 , be based on C Platform to build , Equipped with self-developed Lexus 01 chip , Dual chip computing power 8.4TOPS Calculate the force , Can achieve L3 Autopilot assistance ,NEDC life 600km, Performance version 100 km acceleration 4.8s.

Configuration and parameters at this price , If you can avoid ticket skipping , Guarantee OTA Experience of function unlocking ,C11 Will have a good attraction .


As for Wima , After all, back to Baidu , In the fourth quarter OTA upgrade PAVP( With the support of high-precision maps , It can bypass obstacles independently in a specific parking lot environment 、 Cross level cruise and automatic parking ), And constantly enrich the use scenarios ,W6 The user experience will be improved .

It is reported that , Wilma will still be 2021 The first car product was launched at the end of the year M7.
「 New forces in the tail 」 Is accelerating the elimination of ?
Squeeze under layers , Shuffling is inevitable , Edge brands are destined to be the first to be affected in the second echelon of newly built cars , Gao He 、 Horizon 、 Aichi bears the brunt .
In the eyes of consumers , Electric cars are actually a completely new thing , Technology and industry are not yet mature , Mainly reflected in mileage anxiety and high cost . Electric vehicles will challenge the century old hegemony of fuel vehicles , So that consumers are willing to pay a higher price on the same grade models , And accept the unsatisfactory mileage and energy supplement , Need to tap new extra powers .


Perhaps the acceleration pleasure and smoothness brought by the motor output characteristics are the highlights of electric vehicles , But this alone is not enough to influence consumers' purchase decisions .

meanwhile , For electric vehicles , High horsepower is gradually 「 Decentralization 」 Populism , Become the standard of electric vehicles , The added benefit to the brand is weakening , It's no longer a differentiated selling point . One of the most striking examples is that we only need to spend 33 Ten thousand yuan can get an acceleration 3.2 s The performance version of Model 3.
An electric vehicle needs to find a new product power bonus point in addition to the gradually generalized horsepower parameters , We can see 「 Wei Xiaoli 」 how .
Wei Lai chooses to launch NIO life, Provide unexpected Services , Committed to becoming the company with the highest user satisfaction in the world .
Xiaopeng chooses to turn intelligence into a moat , Firmly bind Xiaopeng with intelligent tags , Occupy the minds of consumers .
Ideals are carried out 「 Home and distance 」 Our user Philosophy , Will be ideal ONE Make it a daddy cart , Who would have thought that after many years, what really benchmarked hannanda was an extended range tram of new forces , The green card is more like icing on the cake .


Gao He 、 Horizon 、 It seems that Aichi didn't think about this at the beginning of the car building , Their original intention seems to be to build an electric car .

besides , These brands have a more fatal rhythm problem .
for example , The first model of skyline ME7 Early publicity benchmarking ES8, But under the background of the rapid development of electric vehicle technology by leaps and bounds, until 2020 year 9 Officially launched in January , Product force is determined by time 「 Dilution 」 Be unavoidable , And the market attention has been occupied by early friends , So even if the price is reduced to 30 Ten thousand yuan of the following ,ME7 Few people are still interested in .


Love Chi's problem is somewhat similar to the horizon , stay 2018 In, it brought the first model Aichi U5 after , Aichi is too late to wait for the second model , This may be related to the fact that Aichi has no strong partners .

Love Chi in 2016 In, it signed a new energy project cooperation agreement with Shangrao City, Jiangxi Province , But Shangrao is neither the provincial capital , Nor is it a strong regional economic city . Weilai has Hefei, Anhui , Xiaopeng has Zhaoqing, Guangdong , The ideal is Changzhou, Jiangsu , Weima has Zhejiang Wenzhou , Even in the sky, there are Hunan, Changsha , by comparison , Shangrao can give Aichi's resource preference, which is bound to have no advantage .


As for Gaohe automobile , A word can be a little transparent , The worrying situation shows that : Consumers are still skeptical about the super high price electric vehicles of a new car brand , What's more, unlike Weilai, Gaohe has many Internet and financial leaders endorsing the brand .

In the last round of fuel truck building tide , geely 、 BYD and other national brands have risen successfully . Compared with once , Domestic manufacturers can actually get more help , On the one hand, China is already the world's largest auto market , It is also the largest new energy market , The market environment is more mature , On the other hand, China's industrial chain is more perfect , Better than Tesla, it also depends on the domestic mature flat wire winding supply chain to replace more advanced flat wire motors .

In this wave of electric intelligent transformation , The soil for the birth of new trendsetters is more fertile , The stage of the second echelon of newly built cars is very big , Of course, the premise is to master the sense of rhythm , At the right time, come up with moving products .

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