Extremely underestimated SaaS leader, why did Inspur International's share price suddenly soar?

source ： Hong Kong Stock Investment Institute

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From consumer Internet to industrial Internet , Then to the Internet of things , Everything produces data . Data is the greatest productivity in the future , Cloud computing is the infrastructure of data computing , It is also one of the fastest growing industries in the world . meanwhile , Data is all pervasive , Data security has risen to the national strategy , Ants were stopped before they went on the market , After that, Didi was severely punished for listing overseas , And the latest news , Didi is considering privatization . There are indications that , The state attaches great importance to data security . Cloud computing is at the core of data computing , Localization of cloud computing is imperative .

SaaS The service involves enterprise core data confidentiality , Especially those involving the core departments of each enterprise ERP SaaS and HCM SaaS, It also needs data security assurance , Localization SaaS There is a lot of room for service development . There are so many in China SaaS In the enterprise , Inspur international is the only state-owned holding company . In the future, under the trend of strict supervision of core data and nationalization of core data , Inspur international is SaaS The importance of position in service is increasing .

Stock price volatility , Out of the air

In recent years, China's major SaaS The market value of listed companies has risen sharply , Inspur international, as a senior with domestic background ERP SaaS The top three enterprises , The company's share price fluctuated sharply in the past two years , Stay at the bottom for a long time . Why , In fact, there are frequent changes with company executives 、 It is blacklisted by the United States in the financial market and related to performance fluctuations .

2020 end of the year , Sun Pishu, the core figure of Inspur Group, the parent company of Inspur international, resigned as the chairman of the company 、 CEO position . Sun Pishu is known as “ The father of Chinese servers ”, It has great influence in the whole wave system . And then , Li Wenguang, executive director of Inspur international, submitted his resignation , Zhang Yuxin takes over as executive director . Then 1 month 29 Japanese and foreign media reported that the FTSE index will not blacklist Inspur international for the time being , Price of stock 2 Start the continuous soaring mode at the beginning of the month . But then the company reported a decline in revenue , A substantial loss in performance , Share price at 2 month 16 After the sun peaked, it began to fall sharply . Performance loss , US financial blacklist , Changes in senior management , Three Damocles swords linger over Inspur International , This is the main factor to suppress the international stock price of Inspur .

But the recent wave of international stock prices suddenly soared again , The reason behind this is the gradual improvement of the company's fundamentals , The bad news has been basically cleared .5 month , The new executive director of the company 、 The CFO determines , Wang Yusen took office .6 month ,MSCI Announced that it would stop the process of removing Inspur international from the index .7 month 15 Japan , The company forecasts medium-term results to turn losses into profits , The company is expected to achieve at least... In the first half of the year 1500 Net profit of HK $10000 . And then , Citic securities issued a long Research Report , Covering Inspur international for the first time , Give a buy rating , Share prices have continued to rise . After more than half a year's sharp shock , Is it possible for Inspur international to start a long-term rising model ？

domestic ERP SaaS TOP3

SaaS Flexible deployment with standardization 、 Easy to iterate 、 Pay as you need and other features have gradually penetrated into the field of enterprise software . In the future, domestic SaaS It will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend .

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According to the research data of Haibi Institute , China SaaS The scale of the market has steadily increased ,2020 In China SaaS The market scale is 498.2 One hundred million yuan , Year on year 2019 An increase of 31.6%, Expect to 2021 In China SaaS The market scale is 666 One hundred million yuan .

SaaS There are many market segments , Among them cloud ERP（ Enterprise resource plan ） Is one of the core directions . Due to the late digital development of domestic enterprises , The current cloud ERP The permeability is very low . The report released by Zhiyan consulting shows that ,2016-2021 The tradition of our country ERP Software growth is maintained at 7% within , cloud ERP The growth rate remains at 40% The above high growth rate ,2016-2021 In, the compound growth rate of the latter was... Of the former 10 times .

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At present, the domestic cloud ERP The industry presents an oligarchic competition pattern , Participants mainly include international ERP giant SAP、Oracle as well as Domestic manufacturers TOP3： UFIDA network 、 Wave international 、 Kingdee International . According to data from prospective industry Research Institute ,2019 UFIDA 、 Kingdee 、 The market shares of Inspur are 33%、13%、12%. In the high-end ERP Look at the market , The position of the big three in China is weak , In the future, there will be more room for medium and high-end domestic substitutes .

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The advantages of large state-owned customers are obvious

Inspur International's main business includes traditional software management 、 Cloud services and Internet of things solutions ,2020 The proportion of the revenue of the three businesses in was 63.28%、19.8%、16.91%. Company from 2017 In, it began to transform and focus on the development of cloud service products , The past three years have achieved remarkable results .

First of all, from the perspective of product construction , The company launches different cloud products for different customer groups , Launch... For large enterprises GSCloud platform ,2020 In, the company provided a new generation of digital platform GSCloud3.0, With GSCloud Core applications + field SaaS Service mode , Provide manpower cloud HCMCloud、 Four public cloud services of collaborative cloud , At the same time, create a hybrid cloud solution ; For growth enterprises , The company provides a new generation of open source cloud ERP product inSuite、 Human resource management products HCMCloudSE etc. . In the face of small, medium and micro enterprises , The company also provides cloud accounting products , Provide one-stop fiscal, taxation and financial solutions .

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From a performance perspective , Wave international 2017 The focus cloud strategy began in ,2018 In, the company's cloud product business revenue was 1.85 Million Hong Kong dollars , The ratio to total revenue is about 7.6%,2020 In, the company's cloud product revenue reached 5.06 Million Hong Kong dollars , The ratio to total revenue is about 19.8%. Average growth in two years 86.8%, Cloud products have become the core of the company's performance growth , The future growth of the company's cloud products will determine the company's share price .

The largest shareholder of Inspur international is Inspur Group , Inspur Group is a leading cloud computing company in China 、 Big data service providers , It has Inspur information 、 Inspur software 、 Three listed companies of Inspur International . The parent company Inspur Group has rich high-quality customer resources , Inspur international is the only state-owned asset in China SaaS Enterprises , Also won the trust of key customers of state-owned enterprises . In terms of customer structure , The company is mainly state-owned enterprises and major customers , At present, the number of large enterprise customers of the company's cloud products exceeds 1200 home , Permeability about 11%. And the penetration space of key customer products is large , High customization requirements , There are many maintenance services after delivery , In the future, the service value of the company in key customer enterprises will increase steadily , Large enterprise customers ARPU There is more room to rise , Provide guarantee for the company's long-term growth .

meanwhile , The company focuses on developing growth customers , This is the hard bone that the company needs to focus on , Because there are so many growth companies , And the bargaining power is relatively lower than that of large state-owned enterprises , But the competition is also more intense . The company needs to have the ability of channel construction and management , The company currently cooperates with distributors in 500 about , Future plans continue to improve , This part is also one of the main growth directions of the company's cloud products in the future .

Extremely underestimated , There's a lot of room for imagination

Backed by major shareholders ,SaaS Core track ERP SaaS The top three enterprises , How low the valuation can be ？ And cloud ERP Two other giants in the industry （ UFIDA network 、 Kingdee International ） Valuation comparison will find , Inspur International's valuation is too low to describe . The following table lists the domestic cloud ERP Three giants 2020 Annual revenue and market value （ end 7 month 30 Japan ） contrast ：

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UFIDA network 、 Kingdee International 、 Inspur international is domestic ERPSaaS The top three enterprises , Among them, Inspur international is a little late because of its business to cloud , Not known to the market . At the same time, coupled with the executive shock in recent years , Performance fluctuations and blacklist Events , It is the rare opportunity of Inspur International . Pictured above , The total revenue volume and market value of the three are the largest of UFIDA network , The total revenue of Inspur international is one quarter of that of UFIDA network , But the market value is only about one-fifth of that of UFIDA . Kingdee International, which is also in the Hong Kong stock market , The difference in total revenue between the two is less than double , The market value of Kingdee International is about that of Inspur international 25 times ！ Reaction to valuation （ Market share PS） By contrast , Maybe more intuitive , end 7 month 30 Daily market value , UFIDA network PS by 13.7 times , Kingdee International is 20.7 times , Inspur international has only about 1.2 times .

Inspur international, as an important subsidiary of Inspur Group , There is no problem with the company's qualification . In addition, it can be noted that , The gross profit margin of the company's products is low , Only half of the other two . And the proportion of cloud is relatively low , Kingdee International cloud products account for more than 50%, UFIDA network has also reached 40% Cloud scale . Hong Kong stocks another vertical in the real estate industry SaaS ERP Enterprise Mingyuan cloud related cloud product business also accounts for more than 50%, And the gross profit margin is as high as 71%. relatively speaking , At present, the cloud products of Inspur international account for 19.8%, The company's gross margin is zero 29.3%, The market must have doubts about this .

But in fact, careful analysis , The company has gradually transformed the traditional software service business into cloud products and services , It needs to pay a certain performance price in the early stage . But as cloud product business performance grows , The proportion of cloud product business has gradually increased . I believe the gross profit margin of the company will be greatly improved . According to the company's performance, it will be revealed that , The company expects 2023 The annual cloud service revenue will be the same as that of management software business , The three-year compound growth rate is expected to reach 47%~60%, expect 2023 In, the company's cloud product revenue will reach 50% above .

With the growth and proportion of cloud products business of the company , The company's valuation is expected to be in line with other peers . You can look forward to , If the revenue of Inspur international cloud products business reaches 15 Million Hong Kong dollars , The proportion in total revenue is 50%~60%. At that time, if you give Inspur International 10 times PS The valuation , The market value of cloud product business can be estimated to reach 150 Million Hong Kong dollars , Plus the valuation of traditional software service business , Inspur international may reach 200 Market value of more than HK $100 million . Compared with now, it is not enough 30 With a market value of HK $100 million , Huge potential for growth .

Step back , Even if the market only gives the tide 5 times PS Underestimated value of , Relative to now 1.1 times PS The valuation , There is also great room for improvement . so to speak , The valuation of Inspur has been underestimated , There is a very large margin of safety . With the bad out , Turn loss into profit , The gross profit margin of cloud products will increase in the future , Performance and valuation of the company , The probability is very high . so to speak , Inspur international is a small risk , But the income may be a great weight .

Share only as information , Does not constitute investment advice .