current position:Home>Is pinduoduo's second quarter earnings too weak?

Is pinduoduo's second quarter earnings too weak?

2021-08-31 20:59:20 TechWeb

Branding and community group buying are two important growth paths for pinduoduo , At the moment when e-commerce exists objectively , The bottom advantage will ensure long-term competitiveness .

1

Agriculture , It seems to be a lot of spelling (PDD.US) The eternal topic of financial reporting ,Q2 Quarterly results show , Pinduoduo invested in agriculture again 100 Billion .

8 month 24 Sunday night , Pinduoduo released 2021 Second quarter results of , Just look at the revenue , Pinduoduo's second quarter profit ( Not for the first time ) Is the biggest highlight , But at the same time, the revenue did not meet market expectations , Users are still growing , But the growth rate is gradually slowing down .

On the day of the financial report , Pinduoduo was officially established 100 100 million yuan of agricultural science and technology project , abbreviation “ Ten billion agricultural research projects ”, By the chairman and CEO Chen Lei holds the position No. 1 , Then the share price soared 22.25%.

Different from the official firmness of pinduoduo , The market has different views on this arrangement ,“ The performance meeting became an agricultural Lecture ”、“ I don't understand this 100 Use of billion ”、“ When will pinduoduo's agricultural dream come true ” The sound of .

But anyway , Head executives lead the team, which means the greatest inclination of resources , Put forward by pinduoduo , Possible profits for this quarter and future quarters , Will give priority to “ Ten billion Agricultural Research Institute ” project , Until you are satisfied 100 Billion total .

In the development of pinduoduo , The rising star of this e-commerce industry , Has always had its own rhythm , In the past, pinduoduo's innovative shopping model led it to ring the bell for US stocks , Next, bet on agriculture , Can you still be favored by the goddess of luck again ?

01、 Pinduoduo, who is slowing down

This financial report , Maybe it's pinduoduo running on the highway , The slowest time .

From the camp most concerned by the public , The total revenue of pinduoduo during the reporting period was 35.69 Billion dollars , renminbi 230.46 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 89%; Before the earnings release , Wall Street analysts predict pinduoduo's revenue to be 267 One hundred million yuan , Year on year growth of about 117%, There is a certain gap between pinduoduo's final achievements and expectations .

actually , Analysts' predictions are not just lip service .

Sorting out pinduoduo's financial reports in recent three years can find , remove 2019 year Q4 to 2020 year Q3 Period of time , Pinduoduo's revenue growth in the rest of the quarter has been maintained at more than 100% The high . After a period of adjustment , Pinduoduo's revenue growth is 2020 year Q4 Then it rebounded , The year-on-year growth rate of operating revenue in the past two quarters was 146% and 239%, This has greatly boosted the confidence of the outside world in pinduoduo .

Tiger securities analysts believe that :“ To some extent , The important logic to support the market's optimistic about pinduoduo is the rapid growth of its business , Whether this rapid growth can be sustained , That is the key to measuring the change of stock price .”

From the number of active users , The number is still increasing , The growth rate has slowed down . Results show that , By 2021 year 6 month 30 Japan , The number of active buyers in pinduoduo reached 8.50 Billion , One season new 2610 ten thousand . Compared with the same period last year , The number of active buyers has increased over the years 24%, Lower than last quarter 31% The growth of .

Of course , Pinduoduo's financial report still reveals highlights worthy of attention . After a long loss in the past , Pinduoduo's quarter finally ushered in a positive profit . According to US GAAP , A lot of spelling 2021 year Q2 Operating profit is 20 One hundred million yuan , The net profit attributable to common shareholders is 24 One hundred million yuan .

In contrast, it represents the monthly life of users / Annual active buyer data , Pinduoduo's index has been maintained well , from 2020 In the first quarter 78% Growth to 2021 In the first quarter 88%. According to earnings data , A lot of spelling APP The average number of monthly active users in this quarter reached 7.385 Billion , In the number of active buyers in the year 87%, In the case of a significant reduction in marketing costs , User stickiness remains unchanged .

Ma Jing, vice president of pinduoduo finance, proposed at the telephone conference :“ The driving force of pinduoduo comes from two , One is the growth of users , The other is user stickiness . Now our number of users has reached 8 Billion 5 Ten million , This growth rate will inevitably decline , Therefore, our focus needs to shift to how to provide better services to customers , Strengthen users' stickiness to the platform .”

After the announcement of financial statements , Capital markets that will never cheat , Give your own answer immediately , Pinduoduo's share price soared on the same day 22.25%. 

02、 The new report card of Chen Lei era

The second quarter financial report is a new report card of Chen Lei's era , If the first quarter results represent a debut , The requirements of the market may be amazing , Then the second quarter results represent a level test , The requirements of the market have accordingly become to stabilize the fundamentals , Give full play to your advantages .

After all, pinduoduo's revenue shrank in this quarter , It has something to do with the adjustment of expenditure proportion . Refer to the financial report data , During the reporting period , Pinduoduo's expenses for sales and marketing are 104 One hundred million yuan , a 2020 In the same period of 91 One hundred million yuan growth 14%, Mainly spent on coupons , That is, what consumers are familiar with “ Ten billion subsidies ”.

Ten billion subsidies look scary , But for now , Pinduoduo's marketing expenses decreased by nearly... Compared with the previous quarter 30 One hundred million yuan , The proportion has reached a new low . Sales expenses are used to get customers , Expenses pull profits , Data comparison is applied to pinduoduo ,14% The growth rate of promotion expenditure is lower than 24% The growth rate of users , Also below 89% The growth rate of revenue , It can be said that money is spent on the blade .

《2021 China digital marketing trend report 》 Show ,47% Advertisers predict 2021 In, China's overall marketing investment will increase ,12% Think it will increase significantly ,35% Think it will increase slightly , The overall confidence of China's marketing investment is positive . The reason is very simple , The Internet age is “ The smell of wine is afraid of the deep lane ” Era , Promotion is placed in a more important position by business owners .

according to “ Attention economy ” principle , Enterprises and marketing methods are increasing , It becomes more difficult to grab the attention of consumers , The decision to reduce marketing spending will also be more difficult . This is especially true for pinduoduo , The 10 billion subsidy is the ability to fight for a better future , It's not realistic to suddenly reduce coupons , For all that , Chen Lei is carrying out his marketing 、 I have never been soft when I re invest in strategy .

In terms of marketing cost , Pinduoduo's marketing expenses this quarter have been reduced to 103 One hundred million yuan , Compared to the previous quarter , The expenditure of marketing expenses has been reduced by nearly 30 One hundred million yuan .

2

Income is constant , The place to spend money is not just to attract new customers , Research and development 、 Administration, warehousing and logistics are big money burners , This is the opposite of that , Pinduoduo's past losses appear to be active , Today, after reducing expenditure, it turns out to be profitable .

Become pinduoduo CEO before , Chen Lei has been working as pinduoduo CTO Position .2019 year , Chen Lei, chief technology officer of pinduoduo, said in a public speech , Technology is the first productivity , Spell more needs to think “ How to use the latest technology to serve consumers , Provide more matching service patterns , Find new growth points .” Now let's see , The biggest change he brought to pinduoduo also comes from R & D investment .

According to the data disclosed in the financial report , Pinduoduo's R & D expenses in this quarter are 23.29 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 40%, The increase is mainly due to the recruitment of more senior R & D personnel , And the increase in the cost of R & D cloud services . in fact , from 2017 So far this year , Pinduoduo's R & D expenses are always rising , In addition to scientific research investment , Pinduoduo has also increased its support for cold chain logistics of agricultural products 、 Construction of supply chain system such as warehousing and distribution .

All enterprises in the e-commerce industry are investing in new businesses , Because the user bonus of the Internet has peaked , Who can connect online sales and offline real economy faster , Who can take the lead on the track . Results show that , Pinduoduo's operating cost in this quarter reached 79 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 197%, Part of the input mainly comes from the increase of distribution and storage costs . at present , Based on long-term investment in agricultural infrastructure , Pinduoduo through route planning technology and network solutions , A set of efficient agricultural products logistics system has been preliminarily created , Straight ahead of 1000 An agricultural area , And drive super 1600 Million farmers participate in the digital economy . 

03、 What does agriculture mean for e-commerce ?

Refer to the opinions of CITIC Securities , Branding and community group buying are two important growth paths for pinduoduo , At the moment when e-commerce exists objectively , The bottom advantage will ensure long-term competitiveness .

according to CNNIC The latest release of 47 Time 《 Statistical report on Internet development in China 》, By 2020 year 12 month , The number of Internet users in China has reached 9.89 Billion , The scale of mobile Internet users 9.86 Billion , Compare and spell a lot of 8.50 It is not difficult for 100 million users to draw a conclusion , The flow market is about to peak , Pinduoduo's high-speed growth for imagination space stage will also end , There are two things to do next , First, strengthen the entry of brand businesses , promote ARPU value ; Second, heavy warehouse agriculture , Promote agricultural digitization .

The former is easy to explain , Brand merchants represent high customer unit price , When pinduoduo has traffic , Quality 、 Famous brand products can encourage consumers to increase their order budget , Effective improvement GMV. Ma Jing answered analysts' questions about ARPU The question of , He said :“ Pinduoduo broadens the breadth and depth of product selection in all product categories , Involving a variety of price ranges . I think as long as we continue to provide users with more choices , Meet their needs ,ARPU It will grow naturally .”

The investment in agricultural projects is not difficult to understand . Written according to brick's agricultural big data 《2020 China fresh food industry report 》, Fresh food is a trillion market , At present, the penetration rate of fresh online consumption is not high ,2019 Years old 7.9%, Far lower than social commodity e-commerce, close to 30% Permeability level .

And under the impact of the epidemic , Social and economic losses , Fresh e-commerce has experienced explosive growth ,Fastdata Pole data display ,2020 Transaction volume of fresh e-commerce reached 1821.2 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 137.6%, Has more than 2019 In the year . According to brick analysts , The high frequency and stickiness of fresh consumption is an important way for major e-commerce to supplement traffic in the era of stock management . This is also the reason why pinduoduo and other Internet enterprises have arranged their vegetable shopping business .

But for pinduoduo now , Community group buying, horse racing and enclosure is not the focus of business , Chen Lei said at the telephone conference :“ Our team is now focusing on how to make the service better , Improve what we are not doing well now , Instead of competing with other businesses .” The opposite is , Spell more in smart agriculture 、 A lot of investment has been made in agricultural research and Technology .

according to the understanding of , Pinduoduo's latest release “ Ten billion agricultural research ” Special projects do not aim at commercial value and profit , It aims to meet the major needs of agriculture and rural areas , Not for commercial value and profit , Committed to promoting the progress of agricultural science and Technology , Technology inclusive , The goal is for agricultural scientific and technological workers and workers to further have motivation and sense of gain .

The official statement of pinduoduo executives on the earnings call confirms this statement , Ma Jing pointed out :“ Of the 10 billion agricultural research projects , Profit and business KPI, It's not what we're considering . We are still at a very early stage , But we are determined to invest , And invest in this field for a long time .”

8 month 9 Japan , Pinduoduo just joined up with China Agricultural University 、 Zhejiang University launched the second “ More agricultural research and technology competition ”. At the first competition last year , From all over the world 17 An agricultural scientific research team to explore AI Grow strawberries , The winning team carries out commercial operation , Put technology into practice .

Li Daoliang, a professor at China Agricultural University, judged , future 30 During the year , Great changes will take place in China's Agriculture , It will also realize the leap from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture .“ Duoduo agricultural research science and technology competition explores the problem of artificial intelligence improving production efficiency , Next, we should encourage more social forces 、 Scientific research institutions join , Come and study 、 Tackling key problems , Really push the industry forward .”

04、 Space is more important than growth

in fact , Today's Collage is huge , But it can't satisfy the appetite of the market , The market is always looking forward to higher 、 faster 、 stronger . But calm down and think about it , The conclusion that the Internet has entered the second half is no longer proved , The pursuit of unlimited proliferation of cells , There is only one way to canceration .

The e-commerce industry has developed so far , Incremental slowdown , Stock increase is a normal trend , Compared with the temporary rapid growth , Healthy performance composition and stable development trend are more important . Take community group buying as an example , Enterprises have adopted the method of burning money to subsidize the division of territory, which is quite effective , But the overweight of government regulation forces players who have been on the table to reverse their traditional thinking , Strengthen the ability to perform the contract .

Competitive low prices may bring growth for some time , But look far away , No one is willing to bear the consequences of losing both sides , And no one can stand it . Whether active or passive , Changing the way you play is inevitable , Pinduoduo actively adjusts its strategy , Although reducing performance growth , But it's also moving towards more certainty 、 A more secure future .

From the opinions of pinduoduo executives, it is not difficult to see , The adjustment of operation focus will be a problem that all families need to face for a long time in the future , Pinduoduo has a plan for this . Try to change the concept of consumers instead of just seeking a high number of customers , Rely on R & D to open up upstream, downstream and even offline businesses to provide high-quality services , Build a good trust relationship with quality to enhance stickiness , It's important to fight , It's also hard to defend the country .

On this issue , Pinduoduo's solution is to seek a new breakthrough in robustness , Instead of blindly buying new business , Horse racing, enclosure and market grabbing . From the perspective of the industry as a whole , E-commerce is still just needed , It's worth looking forward to 、 A long-term industry , The second half of the competition , It takes time to explode , Enterprises and capital markets need ambition , More patience .

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