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The chief technology officer of Amazon predicts five major technology trends in 2022 and the future
2022-02-02 17:48:35 【TechWeb】
【TechWeb】12 month 17 Daily news , Amazon CTO Werner Vogels noting ：“ We have entered a ‘ Inflection point ’.2022 It will be a more exciting year in scientific and technological progress , Technology will further promote human 、 And our earth moving forward .” meanwhile , He gave it. 2022 Five major technology trends in the year and in the future .
The following is a Werner Vogels Prediction of five major technology trends ：
Forecast one ： Artificial intelligence （AI） Supported software development is on the stage
Software development is a creative process , But there is also a lot of repetitive work .2022 year , Machine learning will begin to play an important role in enhancing the workflow of software developers , Help developers create more secure 、 More reliable code .
Since the cloud appeared , We have seen companies around the world bring innovation to their customers on a large scale at an unprecedented speed . However , Even if product delivery speeds up , People still spend too much time on software development .
Although the programming language 、 Software development kit （SDK） And other development efficiency tools have been significantly improved , But these are small evolutions , At present, we have not seen such a significant leap to other technologies . In the past few years , We have begun to lay a foundation for future software development Some basic . I think it's like Amazon DevOps Guru、Amazon CodeGuru、GitHub Copilot and GPT-3 And other tools are the first step towards future development , Machine learning is used for code development and software operation workflow , Help developers improve efficiency . Over the next few years , I believe that the capacity in this field will grow explosively .
machine learning （ML） It will make developers from code review and troubleshooting 、 Free from indiscriminate work , So that they can focus more on creating . These machine learning technologies will also help us write complex systems at an unprecedented speed , And open the door for a new class of developers in many ways . Imagine a scene , Developers just need to describe how they want the application to run , Then various tools are processed through natural language , Explain their request , And return the fully functional code . On the back end , Machine learning technology will also check for software errors , Constantly verify that the software has done what it should do . This kind of software development supported by machine learning will reshape the rules of the game , It can enable more people throughout the organization to help define and build software and software driven products . In the long run , The same machine learning method will liberate us , To create more possibilities for a variety of other areas , Such as media creation . We'll see the generative AI technology （generative AI） More and more used to create films 、 Music and Literature . Equally important , In a similar way ,AI/ML Technology will also begin to detect false content 、 Fraud plays a role .2022 The year will be AI/ML A year that has played an important role in the work and life of developers .
Forecast 2 ： The clouds are boundless , Unlimited expansion
The cloud will be extended to every site through dedicated devices and dedicated solutions . To 2022 year , We'll see these solutions leverage the full power of the cloud , Transform the warehouse 、 The restaurant 、 Retail store 、 Farm, etc .
In the field of supply chain and logistics , We call the last part of the journey “ Last mile ”, That's the last part of the journey before you get home . In e-commerce, this is a challenging part of the whole journey , Because of different positions , There are many variables . for example , Delivering packages to customers on the busy and crowded streets of Tokyo is very different from delivering packages on rural roads in the United States . In Amazon , utilize Amazon Scout（ An all electric automatic delivery equipment ） Innovative technology , We are developing special solutions for the delivery of the last kilometer . Cloud in “ Last mile ” I have my own challenges , I predict that there will be several innovations to help solve this problem .
In the past 15 In the year , We have built extensive global infrastructure , Expand to the world 25 Geographical regions and 81 Usable area , cover 310 Multiple access points , To exceed 245 Countries and regions provide services . But now , We see that cloud services are going beyond the boundaries of the traditional Amazon cloud technology region , Extend to the edge of the network , Or as e-commerce calls it “ Last mile ”.
We have witnessed “ Clouds are almost everywhere ” Reality . We are 2022 The transformation that will be seen in is , The cloud becomes highly specialized at the edge of the network . In order to be in the workshop and warehouse 、 Restaurants and retail stores or remote areas fully realize the advantages of the cloud , Must build a tailored solution at the edge . With... In the cloud Amazon Scout be similar , Amazon Monitron and Amazon Panorama Bring specific devices to the edge of the cloud to complete such work . They bring the high security of the cloud 、 Advanced functionality and delivery speed , And can be placed almost anywhere in the world . These devices are not isolated boxes in a corner , But to become a true extension of the cloud , It can connect all the core functions of the cloud .
We will be in 2022 Even in the next few years , The cloud is accelerating beyond the traditional centralized infrastructure model into unexpected 、 In an environment that requires specialized build technology . Clouds will appear in your car 、 Teapot and TV , Clouds will appear on trucks traveling on the road 、 In everything from ships and planes that carry goods . The cloud will be distributed all over the world , Connected to almost all digital devices or systems on earth and even in space .
Forecast 3 ： The rise of intellectual space , Especially in the field of elderly care
2022 year , Home and building will become better assistants and more intimate partners , Really help us meet the most humanized needs . In the next few years , The biggest beneficiaries will be the elderly .
One of the biggest inspirations brought to me by technology , It is the role it plays in solving the real problems of mankind . After years of meeting with customers around the world who use cloud computing to achieve this goal , We had an idea , That is, start through a named “Now Go Build” To record their stories . We introduced an inspiring customer in the program , It's a Japanese company called Z-Works The company . The company focuses on improving care for the elderly , And help expand the scale of this activity through technology .
Z-Works The problem is that with fewer and fewer people engaged in elderly care , How to provide intelligent and thoughtful care for the elderly in Japan . The company's solution is to arrange sensors on the bed and the whole room of the nursing home , And connect all sensors to the cloud for continuous data analysis . These sensor arrays are more than just monitoring vital signs . Because these sensors run machine learning models trained in the cloud , Therefore, they can also judge whether the old man went to the bathroom and didn't return in time . In that case , The system can inform the personnel on duty to check the condition of the relevant elderly . essentially , This is a highly humanized response brought by a highly intelligent space . If people realize the need , They will do the same . under these circumstances , Is provided by private and secure data streams ML Model , Send signals to people through intelligent actions . We are approaching a node , That's environmental computing 、 Internet of things sensor collection 、 long-range / Mobile data collection and edge processing , And things like Amazon Alexa Such smart devices will have a really positive impact as we have always expected .
Over the next few years , We will see smart spaces emerge in many environments , But the field of elderly care will bear the brunt . These may be a combination of some simple tasks ： From dimming the lights , To lock the door , Deal with the oven that you forgot to turn off , To a scene closer to the life of the elderly 、 More proactive things , For example, ask questions when there is a deviation from the normal lifestyle , And implement common sense solutions when necessary . This will enable people to be better taken care of , In the case of an aging population , This means that we will create a new family category , So that people can really stay at home .
Forecast 4 ： Sustainable development will have an exclusive framework
2022 year , Developers will begin to make meaningful changes to the systems and applications they build “ sustainable development ” Conscious decision making . They will look for new approaches to Cloud Architecture , To meet and optimize the needs of protecting the earth and end users at the same time .
As a developer , We are trained for safety 、 performance 、 Optimize the architecture by factors such as reliability and cost . stay 2022 year , Sustainable development will become a new consideration . We will begin to see in the next few years , Developers play an active role in building a sustainable architecture . They will not only consider the problems being solved , Also consider the sustainable development of the earth .
As a consumer , We have long hoped that video and music can have higher sound and picture quality , Web pages load faster , Can store more and more photos , But people are also beginning to realize , This convenience may have a negative impact on the environment . Whether consumers really need to download as quickly as possible ？ Can we help them make smarter decisions , That is, when the download speed is slightly affected , For more “ Carbon friendly ” To store data assets ？ Can we offer something better than 4K A slightly lower quality video stream to reduce the carbon footprint , And through large-scale practice , So as to have a positive impact on the earth ？ The sustainability framework will incorporate these factors into the decision-making process .
Developers will play an active role in reducing the carbon footprint of their applications . This will happen in all areas ： For example, they will choose where the application will run to take advantage of green energy in the power grid , Or consider the time it takes to process a task , Even specify the use of special chipsets . When we use Web Scale runtime , Even small savings can have a huge impact . We'll also see developers think further “ Turn off the ” The power of resources .“ Always online ” It is the mantra and expectation of many people , But there is a price . in consideration of “ Always online ” Architecture needs to take up resources when it's free , We may start to see a new trend , namely “ The most environmentally friendly energy is the energy we don't use ”. This does not mean that we do not do high availability architecture design , This just means that we will be more aware of sustainable development in our architectural decisions .
We need to be clear about this ： Technology requires the use of energy , At Amazon cloud , We are committed to making informed infrastructure choices . We are expected to be in 2025 Years of implementation 100% Using renewable energy , This is better than what we originally set up 2030 The annual target is five years ahead of schedule . however , Amazon cloud technology makes clouds in wind energy 、 Run on solar or hydroelectric energy , It is only part of the responsibility of developers and company operators for sustainable development . Customer 、 Employees and potential employees will increasingly be asked to face common responsibilities , And make a real effort .
Forecast 5 ： The era of LEO satellites will produce new types of applications （ A new wave of network connectivity , New category of applications ）
Low earth orbit （LEO） Satellites will bring affordable broadband to every corner of the earth . This will change the lives of billions of people —— Teachers' 、 Student 、 Small business owners , Almost anyone can surf the Internet .
In the next five years , More than 20000 satellites will fan out in low orbit above the earth . There will be about 1500 One from Amazon Project Kuiper project , The project is a satellite network , The goal is to provide quick access to underserved and underserved communities around the world 、 Affordable Broadband （ The first satellites are scheduled for 2022 It entered orbit in the autumn of ）. With this “ The size of the earth （planet-scale）” Broadband coverage is beginning to , There will be a whole new class of applications to benefit from .
today , Most digital applications are limited by existing networks , These are designed for low bit rate or intermittent network connections . In some usage scenarios, digital applications and systems are designed to operate offline , However, compared with similar products connected in real time, it usually expires quickly or has limited functions , Like traditional GPS Navigator and mobile phone App This is the case with navigation . When people are no longer connected by the Internet 、 What happens when bandwidth or latency is limited ？ When these places cover the Internet that everyone can afford , A world full of untapped possibilities becomes a reality , We will enter LEO The new pattern brought by satellites .
With ubiquitous Internet connectivity , We will begin to unlock scenes that are simply impossible to achieve today . Just imagine ： Every child can use the same learning tools ; SMEs have mastered the digital tools they need to win more customers , Their business is growing , Create jobs in rural and remote communities around the world . We can more easily monitor afforestation in remote areas , Can better track disasters such as fires and floods , To act faster . Have, for example, solar facilities 、 Large enterprises with heavy equipment or remote assets covering vast buildings can better optimize the use and maintenance of these assets . Logistics transportation companies can use their vehicles 、 During the operation of aircraft and ships, data is continuously uploaded to the cloud for access , And regularly to the ground 、 Ships and air vehicles, etc . Ubiquitous Internet connection will upgrade us from smart space to smart city 、 Smart country , Finally to the world of wisdom .
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