The second Ruixing coffee? Is it tenable for muddy water to short shells
2022-02-02 23:58:27 【TechWeb】
TechWeb writing / Old meow
yesterday , A short report on muddy water , Let the Chinese stock market rise again .“ This is a huge scam , Just like Ruixing coffee ”, In the report , Muddy water lists shells one by one “ Falsification ” Some data and evidence .
And the shell's response is also very fast and tough , Issued a statement at the first time saying ： Ensure the authenticity and standardization of financial reporting data , All kinds of investigations are welcome , But we will resolutely resist the malicious short selling of any institution .
Questions about muddy water , The shell will give the answer and fight back . however , Short the report , You will find that this muddy water seems to “ Failure level ”, Lack of understanding of the Chinese market , In addition, the sample data is not persuasive , It may make muddy water short this time .
GTV、 The number of stores is fake Is the muddy water investigation tenable ？
As a professional short agency , Every short report of muddy water will attract the attention of the market . This short of shells , Muddy water also showed the same confidence as shorting Ruixing coffee , Direct reference “ This is a huge scam ”.
In the report , Some questions raised by muddy water , The shell does have to give an explanation . however , Muddy water listed some survey data and samples in the report , There are also some questions , It is inevitable to doubt its reliability .
First of all , Muddy water claims that shells fake the number of stores , There are a lot of things that don't actually exist “ Ghost shop ” and “ Clone store ”. also , Muddy water also produced evidence in the report , I found it in Langfang 51 Home chain, home store , Yes 19 Home is “ Ghost shop ”.
however , Muddy water is based on the data of Langfang , To question shell's exaggeration of the number of stores 59%, Some are untenable . One side , The samples selected for muddy water are not representative , Langfang is close to Beijing , But it's still just a third tier city , The capacity of the real estate market is low , Nor can it represent the actual situation of shell stores . Whenever muddy water is sampled from first tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai , It will also be more convincing .
second , Muddy water questioned the number of shell brokers for fraud . Muddy water points out in the report that , Shell claims to have... In Shanghai 2.1 10000 intermediaries , But third-party data show that , Its intermediary company in Shanghai is only 9998 Employees . as everyone knows , In China's real estate brokerage industry , High personnel mobility , And there will be a probation period for newcomers , Therefore, due to time deviation , The information is not updated in time , It may lead to the problem of statistical caliber .
meanwhile ,Yipit Data Also pointed out , The way muddy water counts the number of brokers may only represent some cities 50% The total number of brokers , The number of stores based on this may also be incomplete . therefore , Muddy water also risks underestimating the real data based on the relevant values calculated by these stores .
Third , It's muddy water questioning GTV Counterfeiting , The total transaction volume of shell new house sales （GTV） Exaggerated about 126% above , And exaggerated the commission income in the second and third quarters by about 77-96%, Stock housing transaction volume is exaggerated 33%.
According to the latest financial report data released by shell , In the third quarter, its second-hand house GTV by 3782 One hundred million yuan , fell 34.3%, Bridal chamber GTV by 4101 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year decline in 2.5%.
From the official data alone , Under the influence of epidemic situation and Policy , Shell has indeed encountered difficulties in business , But muddy water's doubts about shell income , It may be because I don't understand the particularity of China's real estate market transactions . For example, the difference between the actual transaction price and the record price , If only public data is used as a reference , This doubt is that there is a certain amount of water .
Yipit Data Also said , After checking the information collection method of muddy water , We believe that the analysis method of using store level sales volume as the underlying data is very risky . in addition ,Sandalwood Think , It is very likely that muddy water did not use the correct information when collecting information API, Lead to GTV Serious deviation from . Muddy water collects data only in cities with public transaction records , And use this to estimate the transaction volume of other cities , May lead to wrong conclusions .
After muddy water shorting The market reaction was relatively stable
In this short report , Muddy water compares the financial fraud of shell and Ruixing coffee . however , In terms of market reaction , The muddy water hasn't stirred up too much waves yet . On the futu platform , About muddy water's short this time , Yes 80% Of netizens think it's muddy water touching porcelain .
meanwhile , Short report on muddy water , Some institutions at home and abroad have also expressed doubts . In addition to the doubts mentioned by the data institutions mentioned above , In view of the muddy water accusing the shell of falsely increasing the scale of housing transactions , CITIC reports that it is much more difficult than falsely increasing the transaction records of general consumer goods , Because the housing transaction involves complex property certificate application and the payment of housing transaction taxes .
also , CITIC has also made a number of reports on muddy water “ charge ” To refute ： The new housing channel business itself is open to small and medium-sized intermediaries , Therefore, we can't calculate the transaction volume of new houses by counting stores ; Port application and website query , Nor can it be used to speculate on the number of brokers ; Langfang, whose property market has been shrinking for a long time, is completely unrepresentative of the national property market .
Citic securities analysts believe that , Understand the company's business data and financial data , It should be clear about the true definition of corporate income , The real definition of a broker , We also need a comprehensive understanding of the data system of China's second-hand housing transactions 、 Trading rules and huge market differences between different cities . Maintain shell buy rating , Target price 30 dollar .
Yesterday, , After the muddy water report is released , Shell US stocks opened lower and went higher , It fell in front of the market, but soon rebounded , Once in a while 15%. As of the close , Shell shares fell slightly 1.98%, After hours slight rise 0.05%.
Multi empty game Waiting for the shell to hit back
After being short by muddy water , Shell also gave a tough response for the first time , Ensure the authenticity and standardization of financial reporting data , And directly pointed out that muddy water does not understand China's real estate market , Lack of basic knowledge of shell business and correct interpretation of the three statements .
Talking about the short report of muddy water , Yan yuejin, research director of the think tank center of e-house research institute, agrees , For the current overseas capital , Their understanding of the shell business model is not in place , I don't understand the real estate market opportunity under the opportunity of China's new urbanization , Malicious shorting , In fact, it is a rough and arbitrary judgment based on financial data , For such malicious short selling operations, we need to be vigilant .
Just from the short report of muddy water , Although the evidence is ostensibly conclusive , However, the selection of samples and the lack of understanding of China's real estate market , It may make the muddy water empty this time . After all , There is still a big difference between buying a house and buying coffee , Muddy water's survey is different from Ruixing coffee in credibility .
Of course , As for whether to fake , We still need to wait for Shell's further response . The market welcomes the disclosure of counterfeiting companies by institutions , But more disgusted with malicious shorting .
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