current position:Home>In the era of the new national standard of milk powder, who is in charge of the ups and downs of Feihe, JUNLEBAO and Mengniu?

In the era of the new national standard of milk powder, who is in charge of the ups and downs of Feihe, JUNLEBAO and Mengniu?

2022-05-07 13:20:3636kr

2022 year , It is destined to be an important milestone year for the development of domestic milk powder industry .

This year, the milk powder market has entered the key time node of the second registration and upgrading of formula , In addition, the new national standard is about to be officially implemented ( The transition period is less than one year ), When the two are superimposed , Milk powder enterprises need to propose product formula registration according to the new national standard ( Including changes 、 continue ) apply , After registration, organize production according to the new national standard , It has brought new great changes to the milk powder Market .

In recent days, ,“ The first ” The list of infant formula milk powder conforming to the new national standard was officially released , Six series of Yili and JUNLEBAO brands appear in them , It means that the market transition period officially opens , Industry shock is coming quietly .

Look at marketing in the short term , Look at the policy in the medium term , Look at the population in the long run

After studying the development logic of milk powder industry , Xiangshan finance and economics has such a judgment : Look at marketing in the short term , Look at the policy in the medium term , Look at the population in the long run . These three points determine our view on the future of a milk powder enterprise .

First , Milk powder is still FMCG in essence , Follow the development logic of FMCG category . Marketing has always been the most favorable weapon for FMCG enterprises , Milk powder is no exception . In the short term , Marketing has the most significant impact on milk powder enterprises , Marketing investment determines the position of the brand in the user's mind , The more input, the stronger the mental occupation , It can quickly enhance the popularity of milk powder enterprises 、 Brand influence and other factors .

Among the domestic milk powder enterprises today, Feihe has a high market share , A very important part of the reason is marketing . It showed a profit , The sales and distribution expenses of China flying crane are from 2020 Year of 52.3 One hundred million yuan growth 27.9% to 2021 Year of 67.29 One hundred million yuan , But it should be noted that , The government has been vigilant about the marketing of the milk powder industry . In the last year , Xinhua News Agency once issued a document 《 Experts warn against the impact of formula marketing on breastfeeding 》, It is pointed out in the article that , Infant formula marketing campaigns have a negative impact on breastfeeding , Dairy stocks also suffered a setback .

According to the Check the inner eye pro APP Show , This year, 3 month 30 Japan , The market supervision bureau of Huangpu District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province reported , Yashili International Infant Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd ( Hereinafter referred to as Yashili company ) Publishing illegal advertisements , Be punished by administration 20 Ten thousand yuan . The reason includes Pro milk publicity .

The second registration of this recipe , The supervision of marketing is also more strict . For example, on label identification details that are easy to be ignored , For the tank top in the product packaging 、 Box top 、 Tag 、 Labeling is included in the label of infant formula milk powder , It is necessary to prepare and declare in the sample . Increase publicity for tank bodies that are common in the market 、 Strictly regulate marketing and other phenomena .

secondly , There is no doubt about the degree of attention and impact of the policy on the milk powder industry , Determines the performance of milk powder enterprises in medium and long-term cycles . Milk powder enterprises need to constantly track policies , Research policy trends , Policy oriented , At least it won't deviate .

2016 year 《 Infant formula milk powder product formula registration management method 》 a , go by the name of “ The strictest milk powder new deal in history ”. The infant formula registration has a 5 Year term ,2021 Year is now 5 The last year of the year term , It means that the milk formula is registered again “ Gate opening ”.

in addition ,2021 year 3 month , The new national standard issued by the National Health Commission has entered a three-year period 2 The transitional period of , It's less than a year now . Compared with the last milk powder standard release , Twelve years apart , This is also a big policy cycle change . According to the new national standard , The domestic requirements for infant milk powder have really reached the highest standard in the world ,2 paragraph 、3 This milk powder will have its own independent national standards , Moreover, the regulations on the content of various nutrients are more strict .

Coupled with the external epidemic environment , The pressure on milk powder enterprises under superposition is self-evident . It is reported that , The total cost of a recipe series is 1000 Ten thousand yuan or so , The whole process may take one and a half to two years , According to a factory, you can register 3 Recipe series , Time and capital costs are high . It's another knockout for small and medium-sized enterprises , For milk powder giants , Enterprises that register successfully first will have more first mover advantages .

Last , Population is the absolute influencing factor for the milk powder industry . It depends on whether the newborn population in the main market of milk powder enterprises is increasing or decreasing , This determines the ceiling of milk powder enterprises .

At present, the increase of newborn population is not optimistic , Affected by the newborn population , The growth rate of mother and baby categories is also declining . Opportunities still exist , The key is that milk powder enterprises should learn to flow with the new born population . such as , Due to the great pressure of life in first tier cities , Baoma often raises her children in second and third tier cities ; In addition, the population growth of the three provinces in the Yangtze River Delta depends more on the migration of foreign population , The population growth of Guangdong Province mainly depends on the fertility rate , Then Guangdong Province is the market that needs to be taken care of .

in general , For milk powder enterprises , Three questions need to be asked : How about the marketing investment ? Whether it conforms to the trend of national policy ? Whether we can catch the increase of neonatal population ? These three problems determine the development potential of this milk powder enterprise .

After the new deal , How the industry pattern evolves ?

Next, let's look at the impact of this policy on the milk powder industry .

Many milk powder enterprises believe that the new national standard and the secondary registration of formula have brought a more severe test . actually , The domestic milk powder industry can achieve rebirth , What we should be most grateful for is the country's strict control and relevant policies and measures .

Think about it , without 2016 Implementation of the annual formula registration system , Can there be a prosperous situation in the domestic milk powder industry ? It is difficult to . According to Xiang shancai's judgment , In the industry environment after this policy , There is a high probability that domestic milk powder enterprises will have milk powder giants that can go global .

This can be seen from the development path of Japan's semiconductor industry .

stay 20 century 80 In the semiconductor industry competition between the United States and Japan in the S , Japan has completed the anti surpassing of global market share with the trend of destroying the withered and decaying . Toshiba corp. 、 SONY 、 These brands of Panasonic are in the most brilliant time , Capture countless believers around the world , Created... In the world “Made In Japan” The myth of quality .

But the first “ Made in Japan ” But it's not like that , Sony founder Akio Morita wrote in his memoirs :“ We used to be synonymous with counterfeiting and inferior quality , Anything printed with ‘ Made in Japan ’ All the goods left the impression of poor quality . So , We often have to print this line as small as possible .”

The turning point is that the Japanese government recognizes that inferior products 、 Bad reputation hinders the development of products in the international market , Set about establishing relevant laws and regulations . single 1949 In, it was successively promulgated 《 Industrial standardization law 》《 On industrial rationalization 》, Issued the first industrial standard , This massive quality reform movement also gave birth to Toshiba 、 Sony and other world-famous brands .

The development path of the domestic milk powder industry is very similar to that of the semiconductor industry in Japan . From the early chaos of inferior milk powder to the government's vigorous control , Nowadays, the quality of domestic milk powder products has exceeded the level of other western countries .

For example, the second registration of milk powder formula , For production 、 R & D capability certification materials are more detailed , process 、 equipment 、 Key monitoring points are more rigorous , The dimension of raw material qualification control has been widened and deepened . Regulatory requirements for overall supply chain resources , Quality related problems have been deeply rooted to the source .

in addition , The new national standard for protein in milk powder 、 fat 、 Vitamins, minerals and other nutrients set a stricter content range . therefore , Some media are also worried about the homogenization of the milk powder industry . In the view of Xiangshan finance and Economics , Milk powder giants are capable of differentiated development of milk powder products , The key is whether there is enough motivation or pressure to do it , The new national standard has become a catalyst for the differentiated development of the milk powder industry .

Heavy marketing is common in domestic milk powder industry , The phenomenon of light research and development , A lot of times , The scientific research attribute of milk powder enterprises only exists in oral marketing promotion , Even the dragon head flying crane is not immune to vulgarity ,2021 The R & D cost of flying crane in is only 4.26 One hundred million yuan .

2020 year , Leng Youbin, chairman of Feihe, is in Sina 《 At least an hour 》 In an interview, he said :“ Our R & D is absolutely the first in the world .” If we just talk about R & D achievements , Every family has its strengths , There is no way to compare . If only from the R & D investment at that time , Flying crane's R & D investment may not be the first in the absolute sense . stay 2019 year , The R & D investment of Feihe is 1.71 One hundred million yuan , The R & D expenses of Yili, a comprehensive dairy enterprise, reached 5.42 One hundred million yuan .

if , Previously, for many milk powder giants , Scientific research is just a topic to choose . Now with the release of the new national standard , Scientific research investment will become a must answer .

One side , Domestic milk powder products have the characteristics of high gross profit , Milk powder enterprises have the capital conditions for scientific research investment . Still take the flying crane as an example , Leng Youbin, chairman of Feihe dairy, said in an interview , When asked “ Your current product ( Price ), It should be lower than that of foreign capital ?” Leng Youbin, chairman of Feihe, once replied :“ It's more expensive than foreign capital ! Converted into kilogram , Flying crane is ‘ The most expensive in the world ’.” next , He said :“ The perception of consumers is that good is equal to expensive , That's what the Chinese ancients said. It's so expensive , Good is expensive .”

Liu Senmiao, vice president of JUNLEBAO, was at the 20 It was also said at the pregnancy, baby and child industry summit that , Domestic milk powder is too expensive , Tens of dollars cost four or five hundred 、 Five or six hundred , But some people still buy .

In this regard, Jiang Zhengzhen, general manager of Aozi milk powder, once pointed out , Enterprises educate consumers through marketing , For consumers , Due to the lack of knowledge accumulation in milk powder , It's easy to be guided by the industry , Thus, consumers tend to have the commonness of high priced milk powder .

On the other hand , The end of milk powder is breast milk . according to the understanding of , There are thousands of amino acids and active substances in breast milk , But only a few of these active substances have been found , The number of practical applications is also very small . in other words , There is still a big gap between milk powder and breast milk . Although there is less and less room for enterprises to play in the basic nutrients of milk powder . meanwhile , The significance of enterprises' scientific research and innovation on new nutrients will also be more and more significant .

For the milk powder industry , Today's scientific research may just be synonymous with marketing . But in the future, it will become the embodiment of the real hard power of milk powder enterprises .

It should be noted that , When all brands go high-end , In the future, there may be new market gaps in the middle and low end . First of all, we need to understand why the price of domestic milk powder is so high ? In fact, the quality and safety of milk powder has long been a problem , It's more about parents' parenting 、 Chicken baby's anxiety , The so-called super high-end milk powder is sold more because of the anxiety of parents .

however , With the safety line of milk powder getting higher and higher , Even the middle and low-end milk powder also has high quality , Parents' anxiety is slowly alleviated by the sense of security given by the government . in addition , As information becomes more transparent , Consumers also gradually understand the cost of a can of milk powder , The consumption of milk powder will also become more rational .

If we rank the benefits of this new national standard : Domestic brands > Foreign brands > Small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) . SMEs are constrained by costs , Will further clear , Foreign milk powder enterprises are limited by the level of localization , Affect the efficiency of secondary registration of its formula .

Affected by the melamine incident , The market share of domestic milk powder enterprises has increased from 60% The above drops steeply to 30%, After that, the formula registration system slowly recovered to the original level . With the second registration of the formula and the release and implementation of the new national standard , What height will domestic milk powder enterprises reach in the future , We'll see .

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Xiangshan Finance ”(ID:IPOxscj), author : Xiangshan Finance ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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