current position:Home>Li Ning, shuyishaoxiancao and China Post have poured across the border, and the coffee war has kicked off?

Li Ning, shuyishaoxiancao and China Post have poured across the border, and the coffee war has kicked off?

2022-05-07 13:21:2236kr

2017-2018 Around the year , Tea brand ( Like tea 、 Naixue's tea 、 Answer tea 、 Lujiao Lane 、 Lele tea, etc ) Rookies are born in the tea category , Consumers in first tier cities are overwhelmed by the rise of tea rookies , They are either waiting in line at Xi tea or at Naixue tea and other brands , On tea consumption , Consumers have no so-called Loyalty , But multi consumption also made these new brands have unlimited scenery at that time , And how did you expect it 2022 year , The voice of other tea brands instantly lost momentum , Mostly left out in front of the door , Even the share price of Naixue tea, which is the top stream, also fell , Xi tea has also been exposed to the news of layoffs recently . 

The brands that have attracted much attention are so , Those unknown stores are even more difficult to find a way out , Or say , The drastic changes in the development of these brands all illustrate a trend that the public has to pay attention to : The big play of new tea drinking has come to an end . 

The problem lies in : New tea goes backstage , Which category will guide the trend of drinks ? As one of the world's beverages, will coffee take this stick ? It's worth thinking about . 

We set our sights on coffee , From the latest financial report of Starbucks , Starbucks' latest same store sales in the Chinese market 、 The average customer unit price has declined to a certain extent , Although there are fluctuations in the epidemic , But it can not be ignored , It seems that the world-class brand of coffee is not easy . 

Some practitioners clearly pointed out that , There is really nothing to see in the tea play , The future of new consumer drinks will also depend on coffee . 

Coffee and new tea are both new consumer drinks at present , They were inseparable earlier , And why should the spotlight on drinks turn to coffee ? 

Milk tea 、 New tea 、 The three categories of coffee taste similar , The development trend and logic are different

2017 year , With the new tea drinks coming onto the stage , The category of milk tea also retreated behind the scenes , But based on a certain development context , New tea drinks must contain the connotation of milk tea category . Of course , Today we talk about milk tea , It actually refers to the new tea . 

In contrast, coffee , Although it has a history of hundreds of years , But it has only been 20 or 30 years since it became popular in China . For Chinese people , New tea and coffee are actually new creatures . 

stay Chopsticks play thinking (www.kwthink.cn) It seems , For coffee, the 20-30-year starting history can be ignored , What we need to figure out is , Why milk tea / The drama of new tea has come to an end ? What is the difference between new tea and coffee ? 

Let's start with milk tea , Speaking of milk tea or new tea , This category is usually mixed with Chinese tea , Most of the market will also graft the culture of Chinese tea onto milk tea by mistake , But with a little research , We can find Chinese tea and milk tea 、 New tea is not the same species at all , To be clear is : Chinese tea is just milk tea 、 Just one of the raw materials of the new tea . 

For example, trees are one of the main raw materials of physical books , But the value of a book does not attach much importance to the variety of wood , So of course we can't mix Chinese tea with milk tea , Besides, their customers 、 How to drink 、 Catering connotation 、 Applicable scenario 、 Cultural memory is different . 

Specifically , Milk tea is a kind of sweet tea 、 Milk flavored retail tea drinks , New tea drink is to add fresh fruits and other new raw materials to the logic of milk tea ( Including upgrading the milk source ), Objectively speaking , In the moment of paying attention to quality , The era of milk tea is over , And under the logic of new tea , It takes its craft 、 The process is becoming more personalized 、 complicate , For example, most new tea brands have special fruit processing posts , Cover peeling grapes 、 Mash strawberries, etc . 

The era of milk tea is over , The main reason is the Qualitative Restriction of milk tea , With the addition of new tea and fruit , The fruit flavor of milk tea is eliminated , It naturally decays into milk + tea + This single product of the prototype of sugar . Have to say , Milk tea gives the aura of diversified products to new tea drinks , Give the new tea a chance to live , The new tea drink is homeopathic through a variety of fruits 、 Coconut Juice 、 The addition of soymilk and other raw materials has triggered a certain degree of diversification . 

But this also makes the process of new tea more and more complicated , This leads to a higher and higher degree of handcraft , Labor costs also drive up consumption costs , In the current new tea drinks , Its price is often 20 Yuan up and down . 

New tea drinks are becoming more and more voluminous , At present, it has gradually evolved into fruit tea , In Beijing Xiaoman tea field For example , It mainly uses twelve cherries to make a cup of milk tea , Then launched a strawberry bomb made of 16 strawberries , The unit price has reached 39 element . Let's look at Wang Ning, the main lemon , It uses good tea and lemon , Sold a cup of lemon tea to 20 Yuan up and down . 

The market potential of milk tea has come to an end , This seems indisputable , And the new tea is about the pricing route 、 Ingredients upgrade 、 The operation ceiling of playing method upgrading has also appeared , Even the previous grand scene of queuing is rare today . 

Why milk tea 、 New tea will turn to coffee ? From the perspective of taste type , The cultural heritage of coffee is more long-term , In terms of production , Its process is more standardized , It can even be produced directly ( Like American ), Even lattes and other dairy coffee , Its products are also more convenient than new tea , also , Coffee can be made into various flavors , Seasoning is not limited to “ sugar ” This flavor , More deadly , Coffee can make a similar taste to milk tea , And it can sell better than milk tea 、 New tea is more expensive . 

Smoke everywhere, but also full of vitality , New elements of coffee category development are quietly brewing

People always want something to drink , I'm tired of drinking milk tea 、 After the new tea , Coffee may be the only remaining substitute . 

We found that , Most new tea brands also try coffee products early or all the time , Trying to use coffee as an antidote to the development of new tea . 

Take Wang Ning as an example , The price of Wang Ning's lemon tea is 18-21 Yuan between , The launch of lemon coffee has raised the price 26-28 element , Added coffee , This has an indispensable charm for the price playing method of Wang Ning . 

Hi tea has also launched 16-25 A latte series of about yuan , Although the price is relatively “ populist ”, However, it can be seen from the major platforms that the acceptance of tea loving and coffee selling is not high , Maybe the genes of tea brands making coffee do conflict , But Xi tea has already started B plan , Boutique chain coffee brand Seesaw The list of shareholders has a place for Xi tea . 

More sensitive to smell Snow Ice City Before 2017 Created a sub brand in “ Lucky guy ”, It takes the low-cost route of honey snow ice city , A cup of freshly ground coffee costs only 5 Yuan can buy it . 

Lucky coffee sells a cup of coffee 5 element ,%Arabica But sold a cup of coffee to 65 element , And in the whole coffee category ,65 Yuan is not the ceiling ,50-60 Yuan a cup of coffee is just mass consumption . Consumers have a high tolerance for coffee consumption , This may also be one of the reasons why beverage owners like coffee . 

Coffee has a broader future than new tea , This is also because coffee is a world-class category , American 、 Italian style 、 Japanese style is a popular drinking method in China's coffee market , We also note that , At present, Vietnam's coffee consumption is also gradually becoming popular in China , All kinds of Vietnamese restaurants 、 Vietnamese coffee can also be seen in Southeast Asian restaurants . 

Besides , We also found a new category : The rise of Chinese coffee , With Seesaw For example , In addition to regular coffee products , Other coffees also add fruit 、 Dry Fruits 、 flower 、 Five grains 、 Cheese 、 Tea and other raw materials , This move has two connotations : First, the new tea drinking of coffee , This allows tea drinkers to switch directly to Seesaw; Second, tea is mixed into the camp of coffee as a raw material , This makes us seem to see a new way from milk tea to new tea —— Into the new tea , The new Chinese coffee has completed the systematic play upgrade . 

The reason why it is named Chinese coffee , It's because we saw Yunnan coffee in boutique coffee shops all over the country , This is a new product brought by the localization and maturity of high-quality coffee beans , With the addition of local raw materials and local products , Then add the production of new Chinese tea Product play Law , The logic of new Chinese coffee has been systematized . 

We also noticed the sinking of boutique coffee shops , Some small coffee shops in third and fourth tier cities not only have more expensive coffee machines than chain stores , Even pay more attention to the delicate flavor of beans than chain stores , But judging from the public comments , The sinking of boutique coffee in third and fourth tier cities is not smooth , Most brands do business in general , Perhaps the sinking of coffee category still needs some heat . 

Don't be superstitious , The protracted war on coffee has just begun

The reason why coffee can sell at a good price , It is inseparable from the support of category Technology . Consumers want a cup of freshly ground coffee , In addition to going to the coffee shop to buy or take out , In addition, you can only buy your own coffee beans and coffee equipment ,2C The price of a better coffee machine is as high as 100000 yuan ,2B Better coffee machines range from more than 100000 to hundreds of thousands . 

Choosing a coffee machine is also a technical job , The American coffee machine is simple and easy to use , Siphon pots and hand washing pots need some technology , It's usually coffee lovers who start , The espresso machine needs not only craft and hobbies , More need petty bourgeoisie . 

So strictly speaking , Freshly ground coffee is not close to the people , The development history of coffee is actually the civilian development process of noble drinks ( So is Chinese tea , But the popularization and development of Chinese tea has a certain cultural buffer , It's far from coffee “ cruel ”), Not to mention honey snow ice city and lucky coffee , In today's fast food market , McDonald's 、 KFC also sold freshly ground coffee 10 yuan . 

Cheap good coffee is a trend , On e-commerce platform , Just coffee capsule This category has 7 ten thousand + goods , starbucks 、 Nestle 、 Delong and other brands compete among them , With Three and a half For example , It's in JD.COM The single product evaluation of the platform exceeds 20 ten thousand +, The price of a single item is 8 yuan , Although the price is more expensive than lucky coffee , But it broke into the family 、 Office and outdoor scenes . 

From the perspective of channels , The tentacles of coffee are extremely rich , Consumers can buy coffee drinks on various platforms 、 Instant coffee powder 、 Freeze dried coffee 、 Coffee concentrate 、 Coffee powder , Even fresh coffee extract , The price of these items is 4-10 yuan ;10-25 Coffee consumption in the yuan range is CoCo、 Tea shops like Xi tea and freshly ground products of brands such as Mai coffee occupy ;25-60 Coffee consumption in the yuan range is controlled by Starbucks 、%Arabica、O.P.S.CAFÉ And other professional coffee brands ; High end coffee is more common in Western restaurants or bars 、 Hotel, etc . 

It can be seen that the consumption logic of coffee category is very clear : 

① Convenience floor : high frequency 、 Convenience consumption 、 Item 4-10 element

about 10 Coffee less than yuan , Users are willing to add their own milk 、 sugar 、 Alcohol 、 water , In essence, it is a kind of consumer demand available everywhere . What's interesting is that , There are also many coffee lovers who consume capsule coffee , Because heavy coffee lovers obviously can't go to Starbucks for a drink every day ( Not just the price , It's the cost of time ), At present, as high-quality coffee beans become ubiquitous , Many quality coffee audiences have also entered this range . 

And with the development of big competition , The quality and convenience of convenience coffee will also be upgraded , Convenience coffee will gradually cover 10-15 The coffee consumption range of yuan . 

② The store is now ground : Mass consumption 、 Item 10-25 element

Such consumers may not be particularly fond of coffee , I'm too lazy to make it myself , So spend a few more yuan to Ruixing 、CoCo This kind of store is very convenient to buy , This kind of consumption is mainly milk coffee , What consumers want is refreshing and taste 、 I don't care much about the original taste of coffee . Of course , Some coffee lovers will also go to the store to buy a cup . 

③ Fine coffee / Professional coffee layer : Retail consumption of petty bourgeoisie 、 Item 25-60 element

The price of a drink exceeds 20 element , Consumers should see the necessity of consumption , It needs to be supported by the professionalism of the store , These stores usually have professional baristas , Consumers in this range will gradually pay attention to the taste of coffee 、 Category of coffee beans 、 The professionalism of the barista's preparation, etc . 

For per capita 40 A boutique coffee brand of about yuan , Some stores also sell coffee beans to customers , It can even provide grinding and repacking services for beans . In this consumption range , coffee + Alcohol 、 Fruit and other novel play methods are also normal products . major + Good drink + Taste curiosity + Cost performance is the most important point for consumers in this range . 

④ Coffee dining floor : Petty bourgeoisie leisure consumption 、 Per capita 100 About yuan and above

stay 60 Coffee consumption of about yuan and above , We see that most of them are accompanied by catering , Consumers are no longer standing when they come to drink coffee 、 No longer take away , They can sit in the shop and slowly taste 、 Experience . This section is mostly seen in five-star hotels 、 Medium and high-end Western restaurants, etc . 

Go back to the category itself , After milk tea and new tea , Whether the air outlet of coffee products has come ? From the above four levels , Even if coffee consumption does have a lot of room , But the market is full , Big competition in the coffee industry , It's just the beginning . 

Conclusion

From the release of 《 Shanghai coffee consumption index 》 Look at ,2021 In, there were... In Shanghai 6913 A cafe , Its number far exceeds that of New York 、 In Paris, 、 London 、 International cities such as Tokyo, Japan , Shanghai can be said to be the city with the largest number of cafes in the world . It means , The current development of coffee in China also depends on the category . 

This makes us more sure , Coffee category in the current tuyere is actually a shuffle storm , Or there is no coffee outlet , Some are just the sudden global reshuffle of categories . In the past 2021 Year as an example , This year, there are a total of... Coffee categories in China 24 A financing event , In addition to regular financing , Among them is 5 Pen Angel round financing ( Including seed wheel )、6 Strategic financing , New brands enter the market hand in hand with capital , This will inevitably accelerate the competition efficiency and difficulty of coffee products . 

Since it's so cruel , Then why is the new story of coffee just beginning ? 

Looking back ,2010 About years ago , Milk tea shops are blooming everywhere in our country , here we are 2020 About years ago , Milk tea shops have been incorporated into new tea drinks , Traditional milk tea shops have completely disappeared in first tier cities , Even honey snow ice city , It is also the logic of new tea . here we are 2022 year , We have seen the new logical evolution of coffee category , The coffee category also got the baton handed over by the new tea drink , At this time, the coffee category is not just tea , It also shows us the emerging trend of this new category of new Chinese coffee . 

And in the future , New Chinese coffee may not only erode the existing market of new Chinese tea , It will put the traditional way of playing coffee in the cold . Besides , Coffee and new tea didn't kill each other , They chose to merge 、 Created a new category . 

Chopsticks play thinking prediction , The new Chinese coffee may just be a transition , The future trend of drinks may be to complete the ultimate upgrade of new Chinese drinks , It's for coffee and tea “ New era ”, And this future , Who will complete , Is it the step of new Chinese coffee or the development and reconstruction of new Chinese tea ? This will naturally have an answer in a few years .

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Chopsticks play thinking ”(ID:kwthink), author : Wang Yingli ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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