current position:Home>Reflections on the fourth anniversary of Hong Kong stock 18a

Reflections on the fourth anniversary of Hong Kong stock 18a

2022-05-07 14:52:02100 million euros

 picture source @ Vision China

picture source @ Vision China

Titanium media injection : This article is from the official account of WeChat Yiou is talkative (ID:EO-Healthcare), author | Green lacquer leaves , edit  | Liu Cong , Authorized release of titanium media .

Final , In less than C The issue price of the round financing cost ——7.13 The Hong Kong dollar / stocks , Lepu biology, which submitted its prospectus twice, is in 2 month 23 Complete the listing and trading on the th , After breaking the market of Sano Pharmaceutical 、 Hong Kong 18A Two months of silence , It also becomes the help of 18A Policy success IPO Of the 49 Unprofitable biotech companies .

The debut after listing is not too bad , After all, it's better than breaking all the way on the first day of listing “ predecessors ” People ,7.14 The closing price of Hong Kong dollar 、 Slight inflation 0.14% The result is pretty good . But LEP biology hasn't maintained this momentum for long , The next day it fell below the issue price , Since then, the stock price has been 6.5 The Hong Kong dollar hovers —— And this has become almost all 18A The epitome of the company .

18A policy , Derived from 2017 end of the year , HKEx opens 24 The biggest reform of the listing system in recent years . The following year 4 month , new 《 Listing rules 》 In force ,“ No income is allowed 、 Unprofitable biotechnology companies submit listing applications ” Of the 18A Chapter becomes the biggest attraction .

At the time , As the scientific innovation board has not been opened yet , A company without profit will never land A The possibility of the stock market , U.S. stocks on the other side of the Pacific as the only option , Also because of the differences between cultural habits and market cognition , Not for all Chinese companies .

thus , Hong Kong 18A Once launched, it has become the first choice for many unprofitable biotechnology companies to go public , The HKEx has also repeatedly said , “ We have confidence in , Hong Kong will become one of the most important medical and biotechnology centers in the world ”.

The truth seemed like this for a time , In especial 2020 Driven by the COVID-19 , The biomedical sector has become an absolute C position , Baiji Shenzhou 、 A number of star pharmaceutical stocks such as Cinda biology have been on the stage one after another ,18A The company has earned enough market attention .

Then , On the fourth anniversary of this policy , The boundless strongest winter came across unexpectedly . The superimposed impact of various macro factors , Coupled with the structural problems faced by the pharmaceutical sector itself , A the 18A The company cast a shadow , Ninety percent of enterprises have fallen below the issue price , Enterprises still waiting in line can only wait , Or bite your teeth and go on sale like the LEP creature at the beginning .

Under the changing situation ,18A Does the company still have the value of investment , How much benefit can innovative medicine and equipment bring , Can it even bring benefits , It has become a hot topic and the biggest worry between investors and business leaders .

01、 from 0 To 1 Exploration

2018 year 4 month 30 Japan , The first 18A Chapter listing rules come into force , achieve “ At least one core product has passed the concept stage ”“ The expected market value is no less than 15 Million Hong Kong dollars ” Upon request , Relevant biotechnology companies are qualified for listing . Add... After the stock abbreviation of such listed companies “B”, To remind investors of risks . 

At the time , With China's new drug approval system 、 Reform of the medical insurance system , And the return of a large number of overseas talents , China's innovative drug industry is developing rapidly .18A The launch of the Listing Rules coincides with the time , It opened the door of capital market for innovative drug enterprises in time , It also set off an investment boom in the secondary market .

Meng Yi, general manager and vice chairman of HSBC Global Bank in China, is a metaphor ,18A The introduction of the policy is like a catalyst , For the development of innovative medicine and equipment, it is known as “10 Annual grinding sword ” Tough track , Inserted into the wind and fire wheel of capital , Solved a problem from 0 To 1、 A problem from scratch .

Self singing ritual medicine has become the first enterprise to eat crabs , For the past four years , share 50 A biotechnology company is based on 18A The rules of relevant chapters are listed in Hong Kong , The total raised funds exceed 1100 Million Hong Kong dollars .

among ,2018 year 、2019 year 、2020 year 、2021 year ,18A The listed companies are 5 home 、9 home 、14 home 、20 home , Showing a steady trend of listing year by year .

And the annual raised funds reached 185 Billion 、161 Billion 、404 Billion 、377 Million Hong Kong dollars , among ,2018 year 8 month 8 Baiji Shenzhou, which went public on the th, can be called “ The fundraiser ”,70.85 The fund-raising amount of HK $billion “ Ride a dust storm ”, The minimum raised capital is 4.79 Million Hong Kong dollars , by 2019 year 10 month 28 Yasheng medicine, which went on sale on the th .

Look at the track , this 50 Home company , Pharmaceutical enterprises have a total of 37 home , Of the total 74%, Covering tumors 、 Autoimmune diseases 、 Ophthalmology Department 、 The vaccine 、 Cell therapy 、 diabetes 、 Infectious Diseases 、 Respiratory diseases and rare diseases 9 Large area ; Medical device companies have 13 home , Occupy 26%, Focus on vascular intervention 、 Neurosurgery 、 Molecular diagnostics 、 Diagnosis and treatment equipment, etc .

According to the regulation , The annual income is more than 5 Million Hong Kong dollars , The market value is greater than 40 A company with a condition of HK $100 million , May be removed with the approval of the stock exchange “B” Mark , That is, it is equivalent to listing on the main board of the stock exchange under the general rules . at present , Baiji Shenzhou 、 Xinda biology 、 Real creatures 、 Fuhong Hanlin 4 The company has removed “B” Mark .

Besides , It is worth mentioning that , actually , stay 18A One year after the policy was launched , The fifth set of listing standards of domestic science and technology innovation board also began to release unprofitable biotechnology companies . by comparison , Although the Hong Kong stock market is relatively weak A Shares are undervalued , But more mature and stable , Connect with international mainstream institutional investors , Refinancing has obvious advantages , And the lifting rules after listing are more relaxed .

For the specific selection and comparison of dual listing , Fuhong Hanlin CFO Li Xinlei once said at a live broadcast that , The regulatory environment and regulatory requirements on both sides have their own characteristics , In terms of refinancing speed, Hong Kong stocks have more advantages , But from a valuation perspective A Shares have more advantages , Therefore, we should combine the business characteristics of the enterprise 、 Shareholder structure 、 Future strategic development requires an overall consideration of this matter .

Where to go public may be more a matter for enterprises to choose , However, the adjustment and change of the detailed rules of the science and innovation board itself is of great significance to 18A There will be a force . A typical such as 2021 Beginning of the year , The wind that the audit of science and innovation board is becoming stricter 、 And the scientific innovation board “ Standard five ” The of innovative medical device enterprises is noncommittal , It further triggered almost all innovative medical device enterprises to list in Hong Kong as their first choice , It also forms 2021 Hong Kong stock market 18A A wave crest of the number of listed medical device enterprises .

02、18A When the company wakes up

In a sense , Hong Kong 18A The policy overturned the past investment strategy of capital market on biotechnology companies , While releasing market liquidity in advance , Put the biotechnology investment with high professional threshold in front of the open market and stand the test of the market . As four years passed , More and more companies are accommodated ,18A The market is also experiencing “ Exploration period - Frenzy - Adjustment period ” The stage change of .

Three or four years ago , A group of new drug R & D companies with two or three clinical I The pipeline that hasn't been completed in the period , And a few BD The incoming pipeline runs to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange , The market value of the issue is often doubled , Subscription is also very popular .

2020 In the year , Including kangfang Biology 、 Yongtai Biology 、 Develop the pharmaceutical industry 、 Jiahe Biology 14 An unprofitable biotechnology company is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange , The average increase of these companies on the first day of listing is about 26%, The average cumulative increase in the whole year reached 36.1%. To 2021 Nuohui health, which was listed on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in , More directly created 18A The first day of the company's listing was the highest .

Now , This lively situation has dissipated , Whether in terms of the number of listed companies or the year-on-year performance of stock prices, it is not satisfactory . 

2022 The first four months of the year are almost over , This year's 18A The company only uses Lepu Biology 、 Reco biology , No more... Every month before 1、2 The frequency of home . At this release speed , All year round 18A Whether the number of listed companies can reach double digits is a suspense .

And from last year 8 Month begins ,18A New shares have basically fallen into the dilemma of breaking the last one , Including Xinwei Medical 、 Chuangsheng group 、 Kunbo Medical 、 Heyu 、 Hokkaido Kangcheng 、 Clover biology, etc. broke on the first day of listing .

Even scheduled for 11 month 26 This is also the case with baixin'an, which was listed on the 20th : Due to the lack of cornerstone investors , Unable to complete the fundraising , It had to take the initiative to stop on the eve of listing , Cancellation of sale 、 Delay the offering plan , And return the application share money to the investor .

In the end, Bai Xinan is still 12 month 23 Successfully listed on the 1st , But the situation was once very reluctant , Not only are cornerstone investors still “ leave a blank ”, The issue price is the lower limit of the predetermined range , Subscription multiples are only 1.56 times , Break at the opening , On the first day of listing, when the stock price was the lowest, it was once lower than the issue price 13.78%.

New shares “ Stressed out ”, earlier “ Go ashore ” My company is also having a hard time . according to 4 month 25 Daily closing price calculation ,50 home 18A Nearly 90% of the company has fallen below the issue price , 70% of the company's share price has halved by more than half . One investor said frankly , Some stock prices have fallen to the original B The wheel is even A The valuation of round financing .

Once upon a time License-in The famous zaiding medicine , Now the share price is less than the issue price 1/10, And the first to pass 18A In addition to the first day of listing, the song ritual drugs that landed in Hong Kong stocks , Never exceeded the issue price , Kunbo medical, which belongs to the track of interventional medical devices 、 Serenade Medical 、 Xinwei medical 、 Guichuangtong bridge fell by nearly 80% .

meanwhile , The problem of insufficient liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is also 18A The company is full of . With 4 month 11 Daily data as an example ,23 The turnover of this company is less than 1000 Million Hong Kong dollars , among 9 The turnover of this company is less than 100 Million Hong Kong dollars .

however , It is worth noting that , stay 18A When the company is green , Junshi creatures rely on 169.1% The gains “ stand head and shoulders above others ”, This is mainly its new crown oral medicine VV116 Bring expectations , at present VV116 In the international Multi Center III Phase I clinical research stage . The expectation of the market is ,VV116 If approved successfully , As a help to control the COVID-19 、 One of the options for normalization , Will have great domestic 、 Global market potential .

It's easy to understand that the concept of Xinguan anti epidemic has led to the rise of monarch and real creatures , The sudden counter attack of the once dramatic release of baixinan was more or less unexpected .

Carefully combed and found , The rise of busentan is also driven by the new progress of two products : One is the second generation Iberis Renal nerve blocking system , The product was first clinically approved in Europe , Then the clinical trial patients were enrolled and the work was completed ; The second is the fist product of baixinan —— Degradable heart stent ,2 month 16 Japan , The product completes the clinical patient enrollment .

03、 Return and proof of value

actually , The secondary market is like an arena , Listed companies are among them PK Who can win the favor of investors , As the number of listed companies increases 、 Investors' optional targets become rich , The polarization of stock prices is understandable , However, the situation of continuous and complete general decline is rare .

For this situation , Many investors said , This is the result of the joint action of internal and external factors .

Cao Jian, founder of Shiyu capital, made a specific analysis : One side , The whole international environment 、 Changes in global liquidity , Many international investors have continuously reduced the allocation of Chinese , Institutions that used to have pricing power in the Hong Kong market are also selling Hong Kong assets , It has a great impact on the overall market ; On the other hand , After the outbreak, the whole medical field had a big foam , And value needs to rely on the success of commercialization to prove , Now part of it is also returning to the normal value curve .

before , Puyin international has issued Research Report tips : Under the impact of many overseas risks , At present, a rare signal has emerged in Hong Kong stocks , Investors should attach great importance to .

“ among , From a technical point of view , Heng Seng Index 30 For the first time in years 250 The long-term support of the monthly average , And the current high retreat range is close to 2018 year ; And in terms of capital , The current capital outflow rate of Hong Kong stocks is the same as 2008 The financial crisis in was quite , Second only to 1998 The outflow range during the Asian financial crisis in .” The research report specifically wrote .

Perhaps the signal of market loss is as early as 2021 Years have emerged ——2021 When the world's major indexes showed a positive growth trend in , Only the Hang Seng Index, as a barometer of the Hong Kong stock market, fell significantly .

The turbulent market environment and the current complex situation have intensified the transmission pressure on the capital market , meanwhile , We should also consider the particularity of the biotechnology industry itself .

The biotechnology industry has always been known for its high risk , The whole R & D process costs a lot , so to speak , The import and export of capital is threatening the fate of the whole industry . Over the past few years , A number of biotechnology companies have tasted the sweetness in the first wave of listing , Reaped dividends , Also raised expectations , Make the re entrants have the illusion that they can make money while lying down .

A year ago. , A senior investor once reviewed in an interview with yiouda health 2020 Year market , For example, the blood vessel intervention that was very hot at that time 、 Nerve intervention , The valuations of many popular projects rise again and again , Not only higher than their acceptance , It has even far exceeded the upper limit of market space prediction of the whole track .

What bothered him more was , Some biotech companies with no revenue Pre-IPO The round of valuation itself may not be worth the price , But it has a high probability of going public , After listing, the market value is likely to double directly to 80~100 Billion ,“ Whether you vote or not at this time ? It is a great test for one's own investment values .”

When the price deviates from the value , The accumulation of foam began to suppress risks . And the current situation , It also verifies the investor's judgment : With the enterprise financing money , When it comes to the secondary market, it slowly begins to divide , When the organization that invested in bad projects didn't make money in the end , The bubble is broken. , Investors pay for lessons .

Cao Jian emphasized :“ Finally, the key is to return to the product understanding , Are the products you make really different ? Is there any innovation ?” With more and more products or homogenization 、 Or enter the clinical discovery data is not good , Or has been approved for listing, but far less than expected , The market tends to return to rational thinking more and more .

This trend is not only reflected in Hong Kong stocks 18A The liquidation of the company , The entire Hong Kong stock pharmaceutical sector 、A The biomedical sector is entering the process of valuation rebalancing . data display ,2021 year A Pharmaceutical biological index ( all ) fall 6.14%, Valuations have shrunk 24.4%; The valuation of the pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong stocks shrank by 41%.

Li kechun, partner of Yuansheng venture capital, also said ,“ Not just Hong Kong stocks 18A The general decline of the company , Including NASDAQ and other stock indexes are falling , This may also be an economic cycle , The degree of internationalization of Hong Kong stocks is still relatively high ”, And in his opinion , Falling is not necessarily a bad thing ,“ Falling is normal , It's also because the past was too crazy , Now it's time to return value , And falling to this level is just a better chance , In the long run , It will still rise ”.

04、 Bet on what kind of future ?

Rising may be inevitable , But the aforementioned senior investors admitted , The strength and duration of the cold of Hong Kong stocks , Is far more than he expected . So , At the moment , Everyone is asking , When will this cycle end ? When will the biotechnology sector fight back ?

Zhou chaoze, chief analyst of Minsheng securities pharmaceutical industry, once pointed out , The market dominated by foreign capital must be greatly affected by the geopolitical environment , Now we are concerned about several geopolitical factors , It may directly determine the current situation of Hong Kong stocks 、 It is not just the rebound time opportunity of Hong Kong stock biomedicine or Hong Kong stock as a whole .

“ On the one hand, the time when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ended , Second, the relationship between China and the United States is moving towards , Third, the pharmaceutical industry itself , The biggest attraction of Chinese enterprises in Hong Kong stock biomedicine is internationalization , Whether the path of internationalization can go through .” Specifically speaking .

Geopolitical factors are elusive , And in this unpredictable cold winter , The first question these biotech companies have to answer is how to survive .

Cao Jian said , The response of the secondary market is relatively rapid , But the adjustment of the primary market has just begun , No more effects have been forced . But one visible sign is , Many institutional investment projects are moving forward in the early stage , “ They just want to push some angel wheels 、A、B Round of projects .” a FA According to institutional sources .

Follow this trend , Cao Jian predicted that , Maybe by the fourth quarter of this year 、 Around the beginning of next year , A number of companies will go bankrupt one after another ,“ Some melt into C、D Even listed companies will go bankrupt , Generally speaking, corporate finance 2~3 The money for , The wave of the epidemic has melted money, and now ,Q4 Or may not be able to endure early next year ”.

throughout 2021 Annual financial report , It's profitable 18A There are few companies , Concord creatures 、 Rongchang biology is the only two of them —— The former benefited from the launch of the new coronavirus vaccine , The profit during the year reached 19.07 One hundred million yuan , Turn a loss into a profit ; The latter mainly comes from the global licensing of the core product vidicizumab , To obtain the 2 $100 million down payment .

These two cases of turning losses also represent the current 18A The company's revenue structure : First, the sales revenue from the listing of their own products , Second, product licensing revenue from partners . If there is neither , Then considering the duration becomes the most important 、 The most practical question , The direct indicator is the cash balance reserve .

And now , Part of the company's ” Surplus food “ It's not enough . Many industry analyses have been based on 18A company 2021 Statistics have been made in the latest annual report of , Yes 8 home biotech The cash is not enough to maintain more than two and a half years of R & D investment , among 4 I can't make it at home 2 R & D investment in .

Archimedes, a senior person in the pharmaceutical industry, believes that , At least it can support 2 R & D expenditure of more than years , To survive the cold winter . It means , This year there are already 4 Hong Kong stocks 18A The company is in danger of running out of cash , At the same time, about 30% Hong Kong 18A The company in 2024 Facing the situation of running out of cash in .

Really wait until then , Cao Jian believes that , Maybe we can refer to 2000 When the Internet Foam Burst in , After all, the logic of biotechnology companies in this round is so similar to that of Internet enterprises at that time , There is no final commercial realization as a support ,“ There are two ways to die , Some companies can't raise money 、 Things can't be sold , On the survival of the fittest, natural death , Some companies may have money , But lost expectations , Will also be forced to death .”

Total outcome , The dead are those uncompetitive companies , Only those who survive can successfully cross the cycle , Especially for companies that really have core competitiveness , This inevitable process of scouring the sand by waves is preparing for its growth .

Reference material :

  • Sullivan Jerry ( Shenzhen ) Cloud Technology Co., Ltd ,《 Hong Kong 18A Biotechnology companies issue investment reports 》
  • Boshui online video live broadcast ,《18A Three years after the new rules , Current situation and challenges of biomedical companies 》
  • Guoyuan securities ,《 Innovative medicine weekly : Hong Kong stock innovative pharmaceutical enterprises 2021 Annual report performance inventory 》
  • CAIJIAN road ,《 Life and death of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises 》
  • Yinhua Fund “ finger ” Point maze 24 period ,《 Minsheng securities Zhou chaoze : Whether Hong Kong stock biomedicine can fight back ?》
  • Ed Securities Futures ,《18A Research Report on biomedical industry stocks 》
  • The first finance and economics, ,《 Biotechnology Enterprises “ Overwintering ”: From relying on external financing to accelerating commercialization 》
  • Pharmaceutical investment tribe ,《 Hong Kong stocks do not believe in tears : Heaven left ,18A towards the right 》
  • Liu Xiaolan, managing director of CITIC Securities ,《 Innovative drugs and innovative medical devices choose science and technology innovation board or Hong Kong stocks 18A Comparison of listed companies 》
  • Wait and see biomedicine ,2021 Hong Kong stock market 18A reflection ( One ): A few happy and a few sad 、2021 Hong Kong stock market 18A reflection ( Two ): NASDAQ biotech Apocalypse

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