current position:Home>Nucleic acid testing, "make rich" which companies?

Nucleic acid testing, "make rich" which companies?

2022-05-07 14:52:06Parity

 picture source @ Vision China

picture source @ Vision China

writing | Parity

Just past 4 month , As a Wuhan , I did a total of 16 Secondary nucleic acid detection , Far more than any previous month .

4 month 10 Japan , Wuhan issued an announcement , Said that from that day on, taking Wuhan Rail Transit not only needs “ Health Code Green Code ”, It also needs to be 48 Hour nucleic acid negative certificate . This policy was soon popularized to office buildings 、 The mall 、 The supermarket 、 Restaurants and other public areas , This means that as long as every Wuhan man wants to step out of his home , You have to do a nucleic acid test every two days .

Almost at the same time , The same measures have been applied to Shanghai 、 Shenzhen 、 Guangzhou 、 Jilin and other areas where the epidemic has occurred . Such measures lasted for a month , Wuhan, which has not been added for many days, finally announced , take 48 The time limit for hour negativity is changed to 72 Hours .

But at the same time , Beijing , Hangzhou and other places have successively announced the normalization of nucleic acid testing , Although there is no clear notice , But in the past two years, there has been no need for nucleic acid testing without an epidemic , If there is no accident, it will be far away , And doing nucleic acid every few days will be the new normal .

2020 Nucleic acid detection was considered difficult to sustain in , And so on 2022 Year again “ The lives ”, Show lasting vitality . As the nucleic acid detection cycle is greatly shortened , The arrival of normalization of nucleic acid detection , Let the enterprises that have blown up in the past two years , Seems to be making money again .

therefore , At a time when the epidemic is blooming again , We decided to turn our attention to the nucleic acid detection market which is hot again with the increase of frequency . And try to pass the following questions , To analyze the current nucleic acid detection industry :

1. After two years of development , What are the overall characteristics of the nucleic acid detection market ?

2. What is the development status of leading companies in the market , How much money did you make ?

3. Normalization of nucleic acid detection , Is it really more profitable for these companies ?

The market growth rate is lower than expected , The golden age is over ?

4 month 16 Japan , Li Jinming, deputy director of clinical examination of the National Health Commission, said :“ Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic , China has completed about 115 100 million nucleic acid tests .”

And since 2020 year 5 In January, Wuhan completed about 990 Since the first large-scale nucleic acid test of 10000 people , As the most important criterion for the diagnosis of COVID-19 , Nucleic acid screening has become an important means to deal with sporadic epidemics all over the country . Over the past two years, the evolution of different strains has led to multiple outbreaks , Further created 115 Millions of people have been tested .

however , Not quite as expected , Although the COVID-19 has greatly increased the number of people tested , And it has brought great opportunities to the nucleic acid detection market , But the overall size of the nucleic acid testing market , In the past two years , For a long time, there has been no more significant growth .

The report of China Business Industry Research Institute shows that ,2018-2021 year , The market scale of nucleic acid detection in China is 90 Billion ,106 Billion ,121 Eva 132 Billion ,2022 The year is expected to be 146 Billion . In terms of growth rate ,2021 Compared with the previous two years, the growth amount in has decreased , And the growth rate is also falling all the way .

The size of China's nucleic acid Market chart / China Business Industry Research Institute

In many links covered by the nucleic acid detection market , The most obvious growth is the scale of nucleic acid sample retention reagent , Pre epidemic 2018 Years and 2019 year , The market scale of nucleic acid sample retention reagent is 10 and 12 One hundred million yuan , and 2020 Direct growth in 108%, achieve 24.7 One hundred million yuan .

However, this growth rate has not continued to 2021 year ,2021 The scale of sample retention reagent in is only 28 One hundred million yuan , The growth rate dropped sharply to 12%.

From this view , The year when the COVID-19 promoted the growth of nucleic acid detection market was the year when the epidemic broke out 2020 year , This kind of growth , Nor does it only depend on the huge number of people brought by the whole city , After all, from the first general screening of the whole city to the end of the year , There's only seven months to make a full calculation , The high price in the early stage of nucleic acid detection of novel coronavirus may be another driving force .

According to public information ,2020 year 5 In June, Wuhan carried out the first general screening in China , Cost more than 9 One hundred million yuan , The population covered is 990 ten thousand people , The per capita cost of nucleic acid is 90 yuan . Burning finance in 2020 year 7 According to a report released in June , At that time, a medical Internet platform carried out nucleic acid testing in Beijing , The single charge is at 200 element .

thereafter , The cost of nucleic acid testing has fallen all the way ,2021 year 10 month 26 Japan , The price of single nucleic acid test in Beijing has increased from... In the first half of the year 80 Yuan fell further to 58 element , And clearly stipulate that this price is the highest guiding price , No floating .

Even because Delta Causes of isovariant strains ,2021 In, large-scale nucleic acid screening measures were adopted to prevent and control the epidemic , comparison 2020 There was a significant increase in , But the overall growth rate of the market is still slowing down . And in the 2022 year 4 month , The cost of nucleic acid detection for single person and single test is further reduced to no more than per person 28 element .

besides , Number of enterprises related to approved reagents for nucleic acid testing , Nor has it increased significantly in the past two years .2020 year 6 When the month , The State Food and drug administration has approved 42 Novel coronavirus detection reagent , come from 27 companies , Among them is 12 Listed companies ; here we are 2022 Beginning of the year , Although the nucleic acid detection reagents approved for marketing have increased to 68 individual , But the distributed enterprises are 34 home , The number of listed companies is 14 home .

On the whole , After two years of development , By the beginning of this year , At present, the price of nucleic acid detection market is constantly decreasing , The growth rate of scale has slowed down , The characteristics of the reduction in the number of participating enterprises , The golden age of nucleic acid detection is almost over .

However , With this year 2 From the beginning of the month, many places are due to Omicron Sporadic outbreaks caused by the virus strain , There is another upsurge of nucleic acid detection in China . This may also turn the nucleic acid testing market around 2020 After taking off with high profits in , A period of decline .

A large number of nucleic acid testing companies , Those who joined the Bureau earlier have achieved the myth of making wealth in the past two years , When the tuyere is blown up again , How much did these companies make in the boom before and after ?

Nucleic acid testing company , How much money to make ?

According to the China Commercial Industry Research Institute in 2021 Statistics for the fourth quarter of the year ,2021 First three quarters , The five listed testing companies with the highest revenue are Dean diagnosed Jin Yu medicine Daan gene , Shengxiang biology 、 Mike Biology . Great creatures , Kemp biology , Mingde creatures and Zhijiang creatures followed . In terms of nucleic acid detection and brand index , The first three are the same Jin Yu medicine , Dean diagnosed and Daan gene , Just changed seats with each other .

that , We use Dean diagnosed Jin Yu medicine Daan gene 、 Great creatures 、 Kemp biology 、 Six Mingde biological families as samples , Explore the past quarter and 2021 Annual earnings .

Dean diagnosed stay 4 month 27 Its first quarterly report has just been disclosed on the th , First quarter Dean diagnosed Revenue achieved 46.5 Billion , Year-on-year growth 52.1%, Net profit 7.5 Billion , Year-on-year increase 122.6%.

Dean diagnosed Express , The main diagnostic service business in the overall business , The first quarter's revenue is 28.49 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 103%, Excluding the income from Xinguan business, the income from diagnostic services is only 9.68 One hundred million yuan , The year-on-year growth rate is only 20.6%, This means that in revenue 18.81 100 million yuan comes from the business income of Xinguan , It can be seen that the new crown test promotes its revenue .

The price of nucleic acid testing has fallen , The frequency has not increased significantly 2021 year , Dean diagnosed It has also realized the whole year 130.83 Billion yuan of revenue , Just year-on-year growth 22.9% The amplitude of is relatively inferior , Net profit for the year 11.63 One hundred million yuan , Less than double the profit in the first quarter of this year .

And in the 4 month , Jin Yu medicine Also released its 2022 The first quarter of the year and 2021 Annual report . The first quarter report shows ,2022 First quarter of 2009 Jin Yu medicine Revenue 42.51 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year increase 58.7%, Net profit 8.5 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 62.4%.

Although the first quarterly report did not mention the income of the new crown test in detail , But its predictions ,2022 In the first quarter of the year, the revenue of Xinguan testing was about 24 One hundred million yuan , Accounting for the proportion of the company's revenue 56%.

2021 In the year , Jin Yu medicine Total revenue of 119.4 Billion , Net income of 22.2 One hundred million yuan . The revenue of third-party medical diagnostic services is 113 Billion , Almost support all the company's revenue .

Specific to the new crown detection ,2021 year Jin Yu medicine Only large-scale new crown screening will generate revenue 18 Billion , The annual revenue of new crown testing reached 47 One hundred million yuan , Accounting for more than... Of the revenue of medical diagnostic services 40%.

however , Jin Yu medicine It is also mentioned in the annual report , After deducting the new crown income , The tumor of the company 、 Hematopathy 、 The proportion of special inspection business represented by neuroimmunity and other fields is still 50.5%.

Daan gene Of 2022 The first quarterly report of the year shows , Daan gene The quarter's revenue was 33.62 Billion , Net profit is 16.8 Billion , however , Daan gene In the first quarterly report, it did not mention the revenue and profit brought by Xinguan testing business . therefore , We turn to its 2021 Annual report for the whole year .

Daan gene 2021 The annual report of ,2021 In the year , Its revenue is 76.64 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 43.5%, Net income of 36.18 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 47.7%. Among them, the sales of novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection kit has brought 48.94 Billions of revenue , Year-on-year growth 64.5%, Deduct its 5.56 Billion in operating costs , The operating profit of nucleic acid detection kit is amazing 43.38 One hundred million yuan .

Released by Mingde Biology 2022 The first quarter report of , The company achieved revenue in the first quarter 24.87 One hundred million yuan ; Deduct non net profit 13.85 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 307.04%. The non net profit deducted for the whole year last year was 14.03 One hundred million yuan , The profits in the first quarter of this year are catching up with the profits of last year .

however , Minder creatures also don't mention their 2022 Revenue and profit from nucleic acid testing in the first quarter of 2013 , And according to the company 2021 According to the data in the annual report , The novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection kit is in 2021 The year brought 20.22 Billions of revenue , Deduct its 2.65 Billion in operating costs , The annual operating profit from nucleic acid testing is as high as 17.57 One hundred million yuan .

Released by Kemp Biology 2022 The first quarterly report shows ,2022 In the first quarter of the year, the company realized operating revenue 15.11 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 147.9%; Net profit 5 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 190.6%; Zhongtai securities estimates that ,2022 In the first quarter of the year, the contribution of Xinguan testing revenue to the company's revenue reached 10 More than one hundred million yuan .

Kaipu biological novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection kit   source : Official website

Shuoshi biology also achieved good results in the first quarter of this year . According to the company's first quarter report ,2022 Operating revenue in the first quarter of 15.22 One hundred million yuan , Higher than the overall income in the first half of last year 3.91 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 77.7%; Net profit 6.31 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 62.9%.

Also in 2021 In the annual report , Shuoshi biology mentioned its 2021 Revenue of new crown nucleic acid detection reagent in , Annual report disclosure ,2021 In, the revenue of shuoshi biological Xinguan nucleic acid detection reagent was 10.39 One hundred million yuan , The revenue of other conventional diagnostic reagents is only 2.85 One hundred million yuan . The revenue of diagnostic instruments is 6.8 One hundred million yuan . It also means that 2021 In, the income of nucleic acid detection for shuoshi biology exceeded the total income of other reagents and instruments .

Revenue of six listed nucleic acid testing enterprises in the first quarter Parity mapping

From the above six 2022 A quarterly report and 2021 Read the annual report , Disclosed 2022 Of nucleic acid testing revenue in the first quarter Dean diagnosed and Jin Yu medicine , The revenue scale of nucleic acid testing is 20 Billion yuan . The revenue of nucleic acid detection of Kemp biology in the first quarter is also estimated to be 10 More than one hundred million yuan . The gross profit margin of nucleic acid detection products is mostly 80% above , Its profits should be considerable .

undisclosed 2022 The other three listed companies with nucleic acid detection revenue in the first quarter ,2021 The annual income from nucleic acid testing is also 10 More than one hundred million yuan , From the growth rate of each company's revenue , First quarter Daan gene The revenue from nucleic acid testing may be in 10 More than one hundred million yuan , Mingde creatures and shuoshi creatures are difficult to estimate accurately , But it is expected to exceed 5 One hundred million yuan , The profits are also considerable .

After normalization , There is little profit margin left ?

At this juncture of the overall economic downturn , The above nucleic acid testing enterprises made such high profits in the first quarter of this year , Especially let other industry companies envy . But will nucleic acid testing related businesses continue to pay dividends in the future ? Can we continue to maintain rapid growth ? We also have to analyze the current situation of the industry .

2020 year 4 month , Hubei took the lead in launching the collection of novel coronavirus detection kits , The lowest bid price is 16.78 element 、 Up to 24.99 element . And 2020 year 3 Compared with the average purchase price of the whole province at the end of the month , The price drop has reached 81%. Although the price has been greatly reduced this time , But this is only the beginning of the price reduction of centralized purchase of nucleic acid testing .

Up to now , There are already 30 Provinces have issued documents to reduce government guidance prices .

hunan 、 Jiangxi, etc 23 Provinces reduced the number of mixed inspections to one per person 8 element , Shandong 、 Guangdong, etc. 5 Provinces reduced to per capita 6 element , Xinjiang has even lowered the price of centralized collection of nucleic acids to one share per person 3.5 element . thus , The trend of price reduction is not over yet .

5 month 1 Japan , The price of Henan mixed inspection items fell again , from 8 Yuan down to 4 element ;5 month 2 Japan , Beijing also issued a notice to cut the price of nucleic acid testing , from 5.9 Yuan to 3.4 element , Temporarily the lowest in the country .

source : The official website of Beijing Medical Security Bureau

A researcher in the field of medical and health calculated that , The average production cost of each nucleic acid kit is 3 Yuan to 5 Yuan between . It can be seen that , Now the gross profit of nucleic acid detection has reached zero .

When the profit space of nucleic acid detection continues to be compressed , With the intensification of industry competition and the reduction of product prices , The profits of some enterprises can no longer be maintained at a high level , Even the profits of some companies began to decline .

Like Mike Biology 2022 The data of the first quarter report shows that , Company revenue 9.25 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year decline in 13.5%, Net profit attributable to the parent 2.02 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year decline in 35.6%. The explanation in the financial report is that the sales price of Xinguan molecular products has decreased , The year-on-year decline in revenue .

BGI disclosed 2022 The first quarter report of , The company realized operating revenue in the first quarter 14.3 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year decline in 8.52%; Net profit attributable to the parent 3.30 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year decline in 37.06%. The reasons for the decline in performance , BGI says , The market competition of Xinguan's business has intensified , The unit price of new crown nucleic acid reagent and detection decreased , As a result, the profits related to Xinguan decreased compared with last year .

Zhijiang biological disclosure 2022 First quarter report of , During the reporting period, the company realized revenue 8.1 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 23.4%; however , Net profit attributable to the parent 2.75 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year decline in 12.9%; Deduct non net profit 2.75 One hundred million yuan , It also decreased year-on-year 13.1%.

Zhijiang biology explained in the financial report , The cost of sales in the industry has risen sharply , Decrease in gross profit margin , It is mainly due to the full recovery of production capacity of manufacturers and raw material suppliers , Make the supply of new crown testing products sufficient 、 The industry competition is fierce , In addition, many places across the country have implemented price reduction and centralized purchase of Xinguan test kit , Promote the sharp price reduction of nucleic acid detection kits .

besides , In this year 3 month 11 Japan , To further optimize COVID-19 detection strategy , Issued by the national health and Health Commission 《 Application of COVID-19 antigen detection ( On a trial basis )》, Antigen detection began to be implemented in China . at present , In Shanghai, 、 Guangzhou, Jilin and other places have begun to use antigen detection reagents .

source : Medical administration, Hospital Authority

Although the accuracy of antigen detection is slightly lower than that of nucleic acid detection , But it also has many advantages . such as ,15 To 30 You can get results in minutes , Nucleic acid detection often requires 6 To 16 Hours . And the antigen detection process is simple , No professional instruments are required . Implementation of antigen detection , To a certain extent, it will also compress the market space of nucleic acid detection .

The nucleic acid detection reagent is actually somewhat similar to the new coronavirus vaccine , They are mainly government procurement . Most of them are provided free of charge by the government to the public . So when the production capacity is stable , Neither the intermediate fee rate nor the gross profit margin will be too high , It is also logical that relevant enterprises begin to see a decline in profits .

At the end

Changes in nucleic acid detection , In different stages, they have created different myths of making wealth .

Early stage of epidemic , There are few enterprises with nucleic acid detection ability . So as long as the company has capacity , There is a market , The profit of early products is high , Although the amount of detection has not increased , But it's still easy to bring benefits to the company .

But with the development of the epidemic , Dozens of domestic companies have the ability to produce nucleic acid detection products . Enterprises compete with each other , As a result, the sales price has almost dropped to the cost price range , The profit is minimal . The industry has entered the stage of capacity competition 、 The stage of putting together the production cost . here , The high profit model of relying on a single product is no longer feasible .

Although this year , With Omicron Caused by repeated outbreaks , There is a trend to normalize nucleic acid detection in various places , This makes in the context of low profit space , Nucleic acid testing companies are expected to get a large number of people 2021 Higher annual returns , It's just 48 Hours and 72 The hour rule also means , The frequency and quantity of nucleic acid detection have basically reached the peak .

When profits continue to decline , When there is almost no room for improvement in frequency , The performance of nucleic acid testing companies soared in the first quarter of this year , Perhaps it will also be the last Carnival of the whole industry .

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