current position:Home>Middle aged men drinking Maotai began to buy blind boxes

Middle aged men drinking Maotai began to buy blind boxes

2022-05-07 16:15:2736kr

“ buy Molly People who invest in bubble Mart , Can you understand each other ?”

This question is like a personal signature printed on the title page of bubble Mart Company , But whether you understand it or not ,18-24 Both female consumers and middle-aged male investors are Molly Crazy with bubble Mart , Just when the market value of this company rushes up 1500 HK $100 million .

But that was a year ago , The later bubble Mart seems to be more popular with news commentators , They said in earnest to the company that had been fined repeatedly : The blind box cannot blind the heart .

With the negative tone of the media , In the past year, the market value of bubble Mart has dropped by 100 billion , But this year , The people who buy bubble mart and the people who invest in this company have one thing in common : Witness the admission of newcomers .

Consumer groups are breaking the circle , Bubble mart is 2021 The number of newly registered members in is 1218 ten thousand people , This is more than 2017-2020 The total number of members in the four years of ; Institutional investors are buying , Zhang Kun quietly bought bubble Mart in his management of e fund blue chip selection 13 position , At the same time, in the first quarter, e Fund Asia selected increased its positions significantly , Into the top ten heavyweight stocks . Xiao Nan also bought bubble Mart in the high-quality strict election of e-fund 10 Heavy warehouse .

Look at the names of these two bases ,“ Blue chip selection ”、“ High quality and strict selection ”, As a typical new consumption ,Z Generation consumption , How to be worthy of such a name ? You know, these people used to buy Moutai in Guizhou 、 China Merchants Bank 、 tencent Meituan This kind of company .

Look back at bubble Mart 2021 Performance in , Revenue grew by nearly 79%, This level is at the forefront of several listed new consumer companies . what's more , Compared with the over dependence in previous years Molly comparison , Now there are 7 individual IP Revenue exceeds 100 million , For example, the year-on-year growth of revenue exceeded 1423% Of SKULLPANDA(5.95 One hundred million yuan ) And growth super 458% Sweet Peas (1.62 One hundred million yuan ).

The veteran is in the front , Good performance after , But why did bubble Mart evaporate hundreds of billions of market value in the secondary market in the past year ? Before understanding this phenomenon , Let's go back to the time before bubble Mart went public .

01 From level one to level two : Bubble mart's valuation is upside down

The last round of financing before paopaomat submitted the form to the Hong Kong stock exchange took place in 2020 year 4 month , The leading investment institutions are Huaxing new economic fund and zhengxingu capital , The amount exceeds 1 Billion dollars . Bubble mart's post investment valuation reached 25 Billion dollars .

This is the last moment for bubble mart to open its financing door to the primary market ,“ Almost all large mid and late stage funds 、 Ali and even Li Zekai's family office ” All participated in the snatch of the last ticket [1].

but 2018 Years ago , Bubble mart is a sideline project in the primary market , Because first-class investors are also interested in it “ To express doubt ”[2]. The amount of financing and institutions can also be seen , stay 2018 Years ago , The maximum financing amount of bubble mart is only 3000 Ten thousand yuan , And it was disassembled into 3 The pen is enough , I didn't see any Sequoia Hillhouse and so on “ Better make a mistake than let go ” New institutions appear , And the financing history of domestic tide play companies also began in 2018 year .

From not understanding to competing to invest , What kind of understanding has primary investors experienced on bubble Mart ?

The last one on the table China Renaissance Bao Fan said ,“ The essence of investment and consumption is to invest in intergenerational people ”, face 25 A short-term premium of $100 million valuation , The reason why Bao fan can accept is that he thinks bubble Mart can represent “Z generation ” Our consumer goods . He Yu, an earlier black ant capital, believes that , Bubble Mart has the potential to build an entertainment empire , Just like Disney and Japan Wandai “ After seizing the channel , Upstream IP And content naturally gathered to them , The platform will realize the accumulation of scale and Loyalty ”[1].

And as a strong supporter , Almost involved in bubble Mart Pre-IPO Fengqiao capital Tu Zheng of each round of financing before , What he is sure of is :“ Offline consumption must have opportunities [2]”.

Intergenerational people 、 Industry leader 、 Consumption scenario , Although investors differ in their perception of bubble Mart , but Bring up The cognitive cornerstone of this investment feast is actually :2018 year ,Molly Potential energy explosion , The blind box playing method makes the performance growth trend of bubble Mart clear , The year-on-year growth of revenue exceeded 220%.

In other words, behind the high valuation of bubble Mart at the first level , The supporting core logic is Blind box play , The pursuit of the mood has been extended to the company's listing .

2020 year 12 month 11 Japan , Bubble Mart landed in Hong Kong stocks , There are more than 356 Times the popularity, hit the new front , The opening price rose sharply compared with the issue price 100%. The heat is the following year 2 month 17 The sun peaked , The closing price of bubble Mart on that day reached... Per share 105 The Hong Kong dollar , The total market value is close to 1500 Million Hong Kong dollars .

The short-term trend of IPO can be said to be the spread of primary market sentiment , Until it exceeds the load of the company's actual profitability .

2021 year 2 month 17 After the day's high , Bubble mart's market value has been falling all the way in the shock , Now it is less than one-third of the high point . Shortly after the fall began ,2021 year 3 month 26 Japan , Bubble Mart released 2020 Annual financial report , The year-on-year growth rate of revenue has plummeted :49.3%.

This market value story of high opening and low going is just a sketch of the difference between primary and secondary investors : The primary and secondary valuations are upside down . ocean The other shore Of Wework、 New tea Naixue's tea Have met , There are many reasons : High quality projects in the primary market are scarce ,“ Survivor effect ” As a result, the head project can often get disproportionate large amount of financing ; The primary market has low transaction frequency and high market opacity , Causing the valuation callback speed to lag behind the secondary market and so on [3].

But the valuation of bubble mart is upside down , The analysis of Huang Hai, the primary investor of the new consumer brand, is more appropriate : In China, , Many listed companies release the profit space of the secondary market in the primary market , In contrast, Starbucks has only 100 Yu family store 、0.93 It went public with a revenue of $100 million , What is told is 100 To 10000 The story of [4], Analogy to bubble Matt , Maybe the year after listing is 100 To 101.

For bubble Mart , The valuation of the primary market tells the final story , such “ Emotional valuation ” Overdrawn the company's future in advance 3-5 Annual growth . And in the secondary market , The increase in the number of institutional holdings and the proportion of institutional holdings of bubble Mart happened just after the decline , namely “ Profit margin ” After gradually appearing .

But the past year , Bubble Matt didn't make a circle 1500 The story of the market value of HK $billion , Especially trendy IP There is also a difficult circle in our business .

02 From broken circles to IP supply : Bubble mart's business challenges

The key word of bubble mart's revenue prospect has always been breaking the circle , It's just a broken circle on the premise that the commercial value is diluted .

Looking at the company's financial reports over the years, we can see , Bubble mart is more than 90% All revenue is contributed by registered members , And in the 2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 year , The number of members of bubble mart is 30 ten thousand 、70 ten thousand 、220 ten thousand . Combined with the growth rate of revenue , Bubble mart is 2018 In the past years 133% The growth rate of members has achieved 225% The growth rate of revenue ,2019 The year is more rapid ,214% The growth rate of members has achieved 227% The growth rate of revenue .

The breaking of registered members is basically synchronized with the expansion of revenue scale , But then it was this ( Revenue growth ) Eliminate the other ( Membership growth ) Long .

stay 2020 Years and 2021 year , The number of registered members of bubble mart is 740 ten thousand ( Year-on-year growth 236%) and 1958 ten thousand (165%), But revenue growth was only recorded 49.3% and 78.7%.

The growth rate of revenue is much lower than that of the number of registered members , so to speak , The rapid growth in the number of registered members of bubble mart is actually a large number of “ Inefficient users ” An increase in , The value of a single user is declining .

This is from 30 Ten thousand broken circles to 2000 The necessary process of ten thousand , The favorable conditions for its formation include... Under the scale effect , The cost of sales of a single commodity can be amortized down . But to break the circle , The company's sales rate presents V Word trend , It can be seen that registered members from 30 Ten thousand to nearly ten million , Until then 2000 ten thousand , The difficulty of breaking the circle is different ,2019 The increase in sales rates after the year is mainly due to the expansion of sales personnel and the increase of advertising and marketing expenses .

In short , Every blind box is the same as it was three years ago “ difficult ” sell .

The focus of breaking the circle is the transformation of potential male users . According to the 《2019 Chinese salary report 》, Our monthly salary exceeds 1 The young group of 10000 yuan has 3917 ten thousand people , This group can basically be regarded as potential users of bubble Mart , But the 2026 ten thousand people (52%) All men [5]. If the proportion of male users of bubble Mart disclosed before this 25% Calculation , The current number of male registered members is only about 490 ten thousand , Therefore, the key point of bubble mart's breaking circle is that the proportion of male users has increased significantly , But we haven't seen yet .

The turning point happened here : The overestimation of the primary market is based on the savage growth of the blind box market , The difficulty of breaking the circle is its valuation ceiling , When bubble mart is about to touch the ceiling , It's on the market .

And what bubble Mart told after listing , But one. IP The business model of operation , Why is this a more suitable model for the secondary market , Because it's more concrete 、 Easier to understand 、 Can build higher barriers 、 It's easier to measure its value .

Or say , Bubble mart's new consumption from a blind box that no one can understand , Into a long discussed rotten IP operating .

The most intuitive phenomenon is that bubble Mart began to directly sell hand-made products of specific styles .

This series does not need to open the blind box , If you win the lottery, you can win

But this brings up the problems that most pleasant sheep and bears have encountered . First , Hot style IP Cultivation is not easy .2017-2020H1, The design and authorization cost shared by a single commodity of bubble mart is from 1 to 1.9 element [6], The reason is that there are more waist IP, these IP The licensing fee may be the same as the head , But sales are not in an order of magnitude , Naturally, the sharing cost of design and licensing fees increases .

what's more ,IP As the core of the fashion industry , but IP Signing of 、 Renewal depends on the designer , As a scarce resource, star designers have high bargaining power over the company . For example, to attract Molly Designer Wang Xinming , Paopao Mart gave up part of his equity (1.49%).

Although compared with the low threshold supply that Shanghai neighborhood committees can play with, such as blind box ,IP The operation has a certain threshold and the leader enjoys the first mover advantage , Moreover, the scale advantage of paopaomat in operation and channel can effectively help artists solve the pain points of commercialization , Make the upstream high-quality IP Gather to it . Now? , The cooperation conditions between paopaomat and artists will be more beneficial to the company .

But this is a business that can never be monopolized , The upper limit of market share of leading enterprises is also low . Tide play IP It is essentially a kind of content creativity , Even under bubbmat IP It's very hot , It can't occupy all the fires on the market IP.

2018 year 5 The search for unicorns founded in August , It has signed a contract with Korean designers FAMER BOB and RiCO. Some distributors have disclosed ,BOB and RiCO Of 601 All the products are sold in limited quantity , The heat is on the shelf for seconds , And looking for unicorn's requirements for distributors is : If the goods are not sold out in seconds , You have to get off the shelf in one day . Later, when the unlimited blind box series was released , Looking for unicorns has also won the third place in the transaction of tmall in the category of tide play blind box 1 name .

Looking for unicorns to sign RiCO

This is probably , You have your crazy “ Squid game ”, I have my obsession “ Zhen Huan preach ”, And because the concentration is limited , Bubble mart is difficult to win by monopolizing scale and high-quality designers IP Bargaining power , Instead, try your best to bind the designer , After all, everyone has to be the next Molly The possibility of .

03 From gross profit to repurchase : The charm of niche business

On the demand side , Revenue growth is not as fast as before 、 The permeability is uncertain ; On the supply side , The concentration ceiling is low . In the face of such bubbles, matt , Even if the market value falls out “ Profit margin ”, What supports investors' expectations ?

Looking back on the first anniversary of the listing of several new consumer companies ( Yixian e-commerce 、 Bubble Matt 、 Bertoni 、 Naixue's tea 、 Helens ), Yixian e-commerce, which makes a fortune through new channels 、 Naixue's tea, which relies on new categories to expand the market, has consumed their profitability in the fierce competition in the mass market , The marketing expense rate of Yixian e-commerce has reached 68.6%, On the contrary, bubble mart and betaine, who do business for specific groups, have better money making ability —— Bubble mart's net profit increased by nearly 70%, Betaine grew by nearly 60%.

The United States 《Wired》 Chris, editor in chief of the magazine ・ Anderson is in 2006 In, a book was published to understand the above phenomenon , The title is called. 《 Long tail theory : Why is the future of business a niche market 》.

Although it can be distinguished within every brand “ Hot items ” and “ Long tail goods ”, However, the long-term application of the long tail theory is a footnote to the direction of the shift of economic and cultural focus : From the mainstream products and markets at the head of the demand curve to a large number of niche products and markets at the end of the demand curve [7].

Then why did the long tail appear in the near 20 year ? According to Anderson's explanation , Only the emergence of powerful filters can pick out the right thing for everyone among the many long tail choices .

“ Network development to today , Finally, there is a search 、 Recommend these powerful information technologies , It can provide effective filtering for individual consumers . This is the long tail phenomenon and Web 2.0 The reasons that came into being in the same era ”[8], Coincidentally , This sentence comes from a Bei's book review “ The long tail ”, He lives a month, only 1079 The founder of Wandi Douban .

The age of online shopping —— no Something Reasonable shelf space restrictions , There is also overcapacity to support —— Products and services for specific small groups can also have the same economic appeal as the mainstream .

Like bubble mart, we use emotion and culture to attract trendy fans into the circle , The circle is like an echo room, constantly strengthening the identity of the group . For the vast majority of consumers , They are aiming at the bubble Mart brand (IP) consumption , The result is the release of the charm of niche business —— Bubble mart's gross profit (61.43%) Far more than retail , Buy again (56.5%) Comparable to medical beauty , Plateau effect (4.15 One thousand yuan / Square meters ) Above the bottom of the sea .

The strong stickiness of users can also be seen from the growth rate of the company's channel revenue . Robot stores and small program box extractors are the purchase channels of mature users , The former has no salesperson 、 The purchase process of the latter is complex , But the revenue of these two channels is growing rapidly :2021 year , Robot stores grew by nearly 43%, Small program box extractors have grown by nearly 93%. And in the whole online channel , The revenue of the box extractor is equal to that of other e-commerce channels .

The robot shop in the subway station

From the perspective of future growth prospects , Bubble mart is a business model of idol economy , The core of growth is “ Find valid users , Continue to tap value into them ”, That is to explore overseas markets 、 Develop high unit price categories 、 contain IP Attention, including authorization .

Doubling of overseas revenue ,MEGA Series of on-line second light , And a recent joint venture with UNIQLO , These are the transcripts that paopaomat has handed over now .

Highest unit price 4999 yuan MEGA, The second-hand price has been fried to 9 ten thousand

04 The end of the

Back to the beginning , Among the fund managers who bought bubble Mart in the past year , Except Xiao Nan and Zhang Kun , Almost identical Cenozoic .

Why did star fund managers abandon their love stocks and switch to bubble Mart , We have no way of knowing .

But in the current situation of scarcity of high-quality companies in the secondary market , The positions of fund managers are becoming more and more homogeneous , It's just the subject of these institutions' heavy positions , You can't lie down and earn money when you get on the bus like coca cola , It's crazy to make money if you can't get on the bus like Tesla .

therefore , A new group of fund managers looking for performance will always look for a new alpha . Go to Haitian soy sauce 、 It must be impossible to pick up steel in Moutai, Guizhou , With a strong desire for alpha, they probably have to deal with new consumption “ Dances ”.

[1] Bubble Mart financing story : Got 、 miss , And get and miss ,36Kr

[2] Tu Zheng of Fengqiao capital, the early investor of bubble mart, revealed the secret for the first time :“ The first wave of Chinese fashion play ” The capital behind the past , Hit the net

[3] What are the reasons for the upside down valuation in the primary and secondary markets , Guotai junan

[4] Meng Yan talks to the Yellow Sea : Let more people know about you , Or let the people who love you love you more , Nobody knows

[5] Golden tide play , The future has to —— In depth report of fashion industry , Zheshang securities

[6] Bubble Matt : King of trendy play , Nuggets Z Generation entertainment consumption , Shenwan Hongyuan

[7] Long tail theory : Why is the future of business a niche market , Chris ・ Anderson

[8] The long tail , A North

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Yuanchuan Business Review ”(ID:ycsypl), author : Yu Peiying ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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