current position:Home>Investors Miss Zhou Yahui

Investors Miss Zhou Yahui

2022-05-07 16:33:5236kr

2003 year , Wang Xing dropped out of school and founded Duoyou ;2005 year , Zhang Yiming started the collaborative office system —— A few years before them 2000 year , Zhou Yahui suspended school and founded Vulcan animation network .

Although I have thrown drops 、 Interesting shop 、 Ying Ke And many Unicorn enterprises admired by the outside world , Zhou Yahui's ambition is more than that . last year 1 month , Zhou Yahui said in an exclusive interview that “ Do not do 100 Billion dollar company , I can't go out and meet people ...... This time is a man with his tail between his legs ”, More than 20 years have passed , He has long been financially free , I still regard myself as a member of Tsinghua Wudaokou's entrepreneurial circle .

Be as honest as he , To be frank “ I'm not doing very well , So keep a low profile ”.2015 In, he wrote many famous internal operation details of investment projects , It is still popular today . Leave office Kunlun world wide Chairman Jin 2 Years he , Rarely seen , Quietly working on his re entrepreneurship projects in Africa Opera browser .

Zhou Yahui wants to return to the stage . Investors Miss Zhou Yahui .

Start with games , Now, Chinese models and products are exported to enterprises all over the world , Often let the outside world can't understand . As the core business of the game, the development is slow ,2021 year , The framing of the five major businesses seems to make this enterprise, which is constantly exploring in each subdivision track, begin to take shape , But as a new pole of growth Opera Facing the pressure of internal and external difficulties, it seems that they are also struggling to survive . Based on the industry average of each business segment , Its valuation does seem to be underestimated , Despite strong profitability 、 No shortage of money seems to be the consensus , However, Zhou Yahui, a self styled entrepreneur, seems to be one of the biggest variables . Many people in the outside world care about : Investor Zhou Yahui , Can you personally bring a good project , Whether the 10 billion market value company will become his promised land ?

01 The transformation of “ school report ”, Investment props up net profit 、 Sea going business accounts for 70%

By 5 month 6 Closed yesterday , Kunlun world wide (300418.SH) Share price is 14.24 element / stocks , comparison 7 Years ago (2015 year ) The closing price of Kunlun world wide on the listing day 29 Yuan fell by half , The most recent share price peak occurred this year 1 At the beginning of , Also only 28.13 element . On one side is the long-term maintenance of 30 Low share prices in the yuan range . On the one hand, Kunlun world wide keeps releasing good information in the primary market .

More Than This , It also has a valuation that doesn't seem to match its revenue capacity . Kunlun world wide 4 month 3 Daily dynamic P / E ratio 11.47, This is far lower than the game industry in the same period 27.11 The average dynamic P / E ratio of .

Of course , At present, Kunlun world wide is not a game company, which can make an overview or valuation .

4 month 27 Friday night , Kunlun world wide released 2021 Annual financial report .2021 year , Kunlun wanwei's operating income 48.50 One hundred million yuan , fell 10.5%; Net profit attributable to the parent 15.47 One hundred million yuan , fell 69.3%; Net profit after deduction is 12.9 One hundred million yuan , fell 37.9%.

Judging from the deduction of non net profit of Kunlun wanwei ,2020 It reached its peak in recent years .2020 year , Kunlun wanwei 42 Sell its same-sex dating platform for 100 million yuan Grindr. Although it hurts revenue , But let the net profit appear “ Roller Coaster ” movements .2021 year , Net profit has returned to normal , Net profit after deduction is 12.9 One hundred million yuan . actually ,2021 In the first three quarters of the year, Kunlun wanwei still maintained its non net profit 19.02 One hundred million yuan , Huge losses in the fourth quarter , The main reason is the loss of investment didi . In the fourth quarter , By 2021 year 9 month 30 Didi's latest share price on the day , Kunlun wanwei holds 212.12 Thousands of stocks ( Corresponding ADS848.48 copies ) The loss from changes in fair value is recognized as high as 3.49 One hundred million yuan .

from 2016 Began to acquire Opera and Grinder rise , The business focus of Kunlun wanwei, which has been listed for only one year, has shifted from a single game sector , Continue to build a diversified business system through investment . Annual report ,2021 The total annual operating cost of the company is 43.2 One hundred million yuan , But in the field of investment 85.6 One hundred million yuan , among 20.2 Billion yuan for the acquisition of Opera and Star Group, Complete the financial statement .

from 2016 Year to 2021 year , The investment income of Kunlun wanwei accounts for as much as... Of the current net profit 90%、31%、46%、47%、67%、107.7%. since 2018 Over the years , The investment income remains at more than half of the profits of Kunlun world wide . Interesting shop 、 Ying Ke 、Opera、 Ruhan Holding Co., Ltd 、 Dada group 、 Didi and others are listed companies invested by Kunlun wanwei . At one time, the proportion was as high as 95% Game business of , Last year, its contribution to revenue fell below 40% for the first time , Less than 16.04%, Ranked fourth in the main business income , Lower income 2020 Annual reduction 35.16%.

The transformation scale of Kunlun world wide multi business form is beginning to take shape .2021 year , Complete the rapid growth of users Opera and StarX After the consolidation of , The contribution of overseas income has reached 70.7%, The company expects 2022 The annual overseas business income can be further increased to about 80%.

02 The game business is declining , Assist in going to sea

Kunlun world wide's revenue is mainly supported by overseas information distribution platforms Opera、 Overseas social entertainment platforms StarX、 Global mobile game platform Ark Games、 Leisure entertainment platform leilai mutual entertainment and technology equity investment five business segments .

As early as 2020 year , Founder Zhou Yahui leaves the position of Chairman , Carry out secondary Entrepreneurship , Devote yourself to projects in Africa ——Opera and Opay. Zhou Yahui is ambitious ,“ Be sure to make today's headlines in these places ”. Seems to take the initiative to act , In fact, it's also a way to break the game that has been in the core game business for a long time .

2017 In, the company's game business has been surpassed by the revenue of online social networking business .2017 year ~2021 year , Kunlun world wide's game business revenue has almost stagnated in the past five years .2020 In, the epidemic gave birth to the demand for games , When other companies expand their territory , Kunlun wanwei even experienced a year-on-year decline of nearly 20% The situation of .2021 Year goes further , Fell over 35%.

2021 year , The game business is seriously marginalized , Kunlun world wide is fading the background of the game . and 2020 year , The gap between the revenue of game business and social network business is not big , The gap between the two is only 2% about ( It is worth noting that , Kunlun world wide will split the income of leisure and mutual entertainment , Room card income is classified as “ Social income ”, Revenue from combined transport of platform games “ Game revenue ”.)

The management of the company knows this “ Games are our best business . Although the proportion in the company's business has decreased , But we will continue to invest resources , Especially in Southeast Asia and South America 、 Emerging markets like the Middle East .”  In other words , The game will assist other sea going businesses to carry out large-scale strategic transformation .

Leisure and entertainment were once famous for local chess and cards , Founded on 2016 year 4 month , until 2019 In, Kunlun world wide invested for many times to complete the wholly-owned holding . Leisurely mutual entertainment launched the room card mode to achieve stable growth , The market share ranks second in the same type of industry .2019 year , Kunlun wanwei's subsidiary has made a commitment to gambling when acquiring Xianlai mutual entertainment :3 Annual accumulated net profit 30.18 One hundred million yuan .2021 year , The amount actually completed is only 27.51 One hundred million yuan . The performance bet ended in failure .

since 2016 Self developed in 《 Holy land of gods and Demons 》 after , Mobile game platform GameArk Platform 《 Tribal conflict 》、《 Island soldiers 》 It can bring stable income every year , But there has also been a downward trend . Self research game 《 Holy Land tower 》 Since its launch in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan this year, it has made remarkable achievements . This game will be represented by byte beat in the domestic market , After the edition number is issued, it may usher in a good .

03 The dawn of 10 billion new business appears ? Can the blue ocean market go smoothly “ ferry ”

Kunlun world wide was officially launched last year Opera、StarX Include major sectors .

2020 year , Kunlun wanwei reluctantly sold one of the world's largest gay dating platforms for regulatory reasons Grindr, The selling price is 6.2 Billion dollars .2020 Received in 3.2 $100 million in transactions , Let Kunlun world wide realize 27 Billion revenue 、49 The upside down performance of billion profits .

2021 year 2 month , Kunlun wanwei 13.95 Billion yuan to acquire American enterprises StarGroup60.65% Equity of , After the transaction is completed, the total holding of 80% Equity of , And complete the table work . Although already invested , until 2021 It was only in that year that I decided to buy the project , March K Song platform .StarGroup ( Renamed Star X) Be regarded as Grindr Alternative assets .

As an online K Song platform ,2021 In the first half of ,StarMaker(StarX Its main products ) The average daily online time of users is 49 minute , Second only to YouTube(77 minute )、Tiktok(71 minute ) and Facebook(55 minute ). at present ,StarMaker Won Korea 、 Spain 、 Italy and other countries ranked first in the same category , In France 、 Belgium 、 Mexico 、 Brazil 、 Chile and other places have entered the top five . Kunlun wanwei regards it as a potential stock and strongly supports . What is the prospect of this business ? It's a little sad , Kunlun world wide is not too worried about competitors , because “ Giants in this field don't look up to ”.

Same as last year's table Opera, Once known as the world's third largest browser , Under the operation of Zhou Yahui, we are committed to becoming an African “ Today's headline ”, and Opay Is positioned as the African version “ Alipay ”. So far Opera March towards the Internet platform —— The platform will gain more traffic and advertising revenue .

Zhou Yahui believes that Opera The future is a 10 billion dollar rising company ,Opera Although it did 16.0 Billion yuan of business income , The market value on NASDAQ is only 6 Around $100 million . Last year's net profit turned from profit to loss , A net loss 2.8 One hundred million yuan . Valuations seem to be well below the industry average ,Opera stay 1 An announcement was made in January 5000 A ten thousand dollar stock Buyback program . Kunlun wanwei is right Star X、Opera Support for R & D investment has increased . Before last year's consolidation, it was nearly 3 year , The proportion of R & D investment of Kunlun wanwei in operating revenue is 10.86%、7.67%、6.06%, Declining year after year . And after merging ,2021 Since, R & D expenses have increased year by year . Maybe , The investment in game research and development remains low , New businesses are creating profitable growth points .

Zhou Yahui used to 2015 Famous for a series of investment notes released around .“ Angels can take Zihui's money ,A Take Zhu Xiaohu's money ,B Take my money ,C Take the money from Sequoia , That's definitely a perfect combination ”. A horse stumbles , He invested in Musical.ly Later, it was hatched by byte beating TikTok.

04 Billion blue ocean market , Zhou Yahui's “ The Promised Land ”?

Africa is considered “ The world's last blue ocean market with a population of one billion ”, It has become the preferred destination for many domestic Internet enterprises to go to sea .2016 year , Kunlun world wide acquired the market share in Africa at that time 30% Browser Opera.

A research summary on Kunlun world wide released two years ago pointed out that ,“ Here's the problem , The liquidation cycle in Africa is relatively long , So from the perspective of realization , We should not enter India and Southeast Asia , We should enter Europe with a better user liquidity base .”

The liquidation cycle is relatively long , Because Africa ARPU value , That is, the average income of each user is low . Enterprises can rely on the first mover advantage to occupy the highland in this blue sea , But how to make money from it is fundamental . Yes Opera For browsers , How high is the market ceiling ?Opera Joint CEO Song Lin has a saying :“70%~80% Of users don't care about browser brands , Generally, we don't target this kind of people , Our goal is the rest 20%. But even this 20% Users of , Also a 10 The market of 100 million users .” However , The reality is that Opera The market share of browsers is declining , According to the statcounter data display , By 2022 year 4 month ,Opera The market share of browsers in Africa has fallen to 9%, be ranked at Chrome(72.44%)、Safari(9.12%) after .Opera Influence in Africa is being seriously eroded by other competitors .

In terms of global browser market share ,Opera Only occupy 2.07%, Over the years, it has almost stood still .2022 year 4 Monthly data shows ,Opera The market share ranks sixth in the world .

According to Kunlun wanwei 2021 Annual report ,Opera The global average monthly active users are nearly 3.6 Billion . And according to 2020 Annual report disclosure :Opera The overall monthly active users reached 3.8 Billion . The global average monthly active users of Kunlun world wide fell 2000 ten thousand , Business growth is experiencing a bottleneck period .

Opera Famous for data compression technology , It is more friendly to African users who charge by traffic , As a result, Africa has gradually gained a foothold .2021 Another disclosed in the annual report A letter Interest is ,“ In Latin America and North America 35% And 22% Rapid user growth ”. This shows that the company is still in a period of rapid growth , More importantly, perhaps the growth rate of new users in Africa is slowing down , Need to be filled by other regions .

From the perspective of business model , Browsers essentially rely on search and advertising . From the perspective of future income composition , The search section changes less , Basically around MAU an , The increment will focus on Opera News Advertising revenue from . Another Chinese enterprise that went to Africa pointed out that , The African market is paying 、 Finance 、 music 、 Travel 、 There are no mobile Internet products that occupy an absolute market share in areas such as life services .Opera The performance in terms of content ecology and payment has not yet reached the cashing period , As a result, the stock price remains depressed .

Conclusion

Kunlun world wide “ game + Sea + investment ” How the business should be valued ? We estimate Kunlun world wide by industry average , It may be possible to draw a valuation bottom line .

according to wind Data and Huatai securities Statistics ,A Stock game company 2021 year PE In more 15-30 Times the interval , The latest research reports of many securities companies believe that “ The valuation of the game sector has bottomed out ”. The latest market value of Kunlun world wide is about 174 One hundred million yuan , From the perspective of game business , Net profit of leisure entertainment 8.42 Billion , If pressed 20 times PE, Market capitalization 168.4 Billion .

last year ,Opera Revenue of 2.51 Billion dollars ( about 15.89 RMB 100 million ), The equity proportion of Kunlun wanwei 54.5%, By industry ( Refer to Google 、 Baidu 、 Amazon, etc. )PS The mean for 4 Double counting ,Opera Valuation at least 34 Billion .GameArk Pre Market 2014 year , The net profit of that year reached 3.21 Billion . Its business mainly provides cash flow , If the 10 times PE Calculation , At least 32 Billion . The version number is open 、 Yuancosmos and other business layout are good for the future . Kunlun world wide buy Star X The total transaction consideration is 13.94 RMB 100 million . With PS Valuation method , Industry average 2 times , Kunlun wanwei accounts for 72.9% equity , be Star Group This sector is valued at 28.3 Billion .

The last part is the valuation of investment business , Some people in the industry analyzed this through discount , It is known that the long-term investment account cost of the company's joint venture during the reporting period is 17.94 One hundred million yuan , Other non current financial assets are 58.89 One hundred million yuan , Trading financial assets are 8.33 One hundred million yuan , Then the total of the three is about 85.16 Billion , according to 70% At a discount , Approximate valuation 59.6 Billion .

The sum of the valuations of the above sectors , about 322.3 One hundred million yuan . At present, the total market value of Kunlun world wide is only 170 Million or so , Far below the industry level .

Remove the financial data itself , Perhaps one of the biggest variables affecting the valuation of Kunlun world wide is Zhou Yahui himself . in the past , Zhou Yahui invested in... With his personal assets , Wait until the project matures , Sold at a premium to its own listed company , After cash recovery, continue to invest with this model 、 Cash out . Leisure and entertainment 、Opera and Star Group And so on are injected into listed companies in this form , Now it also includes Opay. No matter how low the company's share price is , Zhou Yahui naturally makes a lot of money . More Than This , from 2015 Went public in 2021 In so far , The company has accumulated net profit attributable to the parent company 110 One hundred million yuan . however , The company's share to shareholders Red chat Better than nothing . This is criticized by the outside world .

Kunlun world wide under Zhou Yahui's operation , The main business sector is promoted at the rhythm of major adjustment almost once a year . Compared with Wang Xing 、 Zhang Yiming and other insiders in Wudaokou entrepreneurship circle , It's hard to get rid of the true colors of investors . The outside world still questions whether he has the ability to make the project from 1 To 100, With his own Opay For example , The project is subject to supervision due to the attribute of small loan 、 Public opinion, etc. bring continuous pressure . But whether time can stand without money this time is also known as “all in”Opera Zhou Yahui's side ?

“ Entrepreneur ” Zhou Yahui is proving himself , Investors Miss Zhou Yahui .

Node Finance Statement : The content of this article is for reference only , The information or opinions expressed in this article do not constitute any investment proposal , Node finance will not take any responsibility for any action taken due to the use of this article . 

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Node Finance ”(ID:jiedian2018), author : Node Finance ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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