current position:Home>Musk set three fires on Twitter's "cigarette butt"

Musk set three fires on Twitter's "cigarette butt"

2022-05-07 18:37:50TechWeb

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Wei Yuqi | author

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stay Twitter The Board agreed “ prostitution ” after , tesla CEO Musk distance into the master Twitter Only one step away . Although the journey of pursuing love has not been settled yet , Musk has drawn “ Big cake ”, Start giving Twitter Point out the direction .

5 month 7 Japan , According to the 《 The New York times 》 reports , Musk is seeking investor support , by 440 US $100 million acquisition Twitter Fund raising . He declared in a fundraising material that , He can be in 2028 The year will be Twitter Revenue increased to 264 Billion dollars , comparison 2020 About 51 Billion dollars 4 More than double .

Part of this revenue will come from advertising . Musk told investors ,2028 year Twitter Advertising revenue will increase to 120 Billion dollars , But the proportion will change from 2020 About 90% drop to 45%.

On the other hand , Musk also intends to pay for membership services Twitter Blue Create a second growth curve ,2028 This part of the income will reach 100 Billion dollars . He expects , The number of users of this service is 2025 The years will reach 6900 ten thousand .

Besides , Musk also plans to expand Twitter The payment business of . at present ,Twitter Our payment business is mainly tips and shopping , Small enough to be negligible ;2028 This part of revenue will grow to about 13 Billion dollars .

Musk estimates ,2028 year ,Twitter The average revenue per user is expected to rise from 2020 Year of 24.83 Increase the dollar to 30.22 dollar .

According to people familiar with the matter , Musk declared to investors , If investors support his acquisition of twitter , He will be very confident that they will get 2~3 Times the return on investment ; If everything goes well , It is possible to obtain 5~10 Times the return on investment .

Besides , According to the 《 The New York times 》 reports , Musk's roadshow to investors , The signal of downsizing has been released .

Musk predicted in the roadshow , To 2025 in , Twitter will have 11072 Employees , About... More than the current one 7500 Human growth 3600 people . however , This is not to say Twitter Will continue to expand enrollment , But first 2022 Increased to 9225 people , And then 2023 Annual decline 8332 people , And then add .

In order to achieve the above objectives , Musk is already working for Twitter Make a reform plan , It can be summarized as : Back to the mainstream 、 Improve products and get rid of advertising dependence .

5 month 2 Japan , Musk shows up 2022 New York Metropolitan Museum charity dinner , Asked about Twitter When you have any plans for your future , He expressed the hope that Twitter from “ niche ” Make into “ Main stream ”, Become as “ inclusive ” Media platform .

Musk further explained , His goal is to pass Twitter Achieve all goals , That is to provide a service that is as inclusive as possible .“ Ideally , Most Americans will use Twitter Chat .”

For what is tolerance , Musk had tried to demonstrate . stay Twitter After announcing the acceptance of the transaction , He tweeted that ,“ I hope those who criticize me most severely can also stay here Twitter On , Because that's what freedom of speech means .”


Besides , Once again, he emphasized the elimination of robots 、 Fishing and other fraud issues ,“ We don't want people to be cheated of property on this platform .” Musk said .

Twitter Deficiencies in products have always been Musk's focus . before , He also voted on whether the Edit button should be added .

Even though Twitter In terms of capital market and users, it is regarded as a thing of the past , But from Musk's operation ,Twitter It's in his eyes “ Buttstock ”, And he's already on this “ Buttstock ” Prepared three fires .

For the purpose , Musk could become Twitter The temporary leader of . American television media David Faber Recent forecast , At the completion of 440 After a $billion deal , Musk will temporarily serve as Twitter CEO For months .

however ,Twitter As an antique product in the era of graphic Internet , It has been defeated in the wave of video , Not only by Meta Under his command Facebook、Instagram Wait far behind , It is completely powerless to resist TikTok Such a rising star . When musk became the new helmsman , Want to make... In a short time Twitter It's not easy to recreate the glory of that year .


《 The New Yorker 》 The magazine once pointed out in an article that ,Twitter The current situation can be used “ Dysfunction ” To describe : Product progress can't keep up with Facebook、TikTok Other competitors , Feature updates are also extremely unstable , Always refuse to provide the functions users want , This leads to poor reputation of users .

These problems , Musk proposed some new features , Hope to attract users .

As early as 4 At the beginning of , Musk is Twitter A vote was launched on whether to add an edit button ,“yes” With more than 75% The number of votes won .


all the time ,Twitter There are no edit buttons , If the user finds that the information is wrong after publishing the information , The only thing you can do is send another tweet to correct . After musk pushed ,Twitter The editing function has been tested .

Besides , Musk also said he would resolutely crack down on robots , And open source the algorithm , So as to improve users' understanding of Twitter The trust of the .

Yes Twitter Transformation of business model , It was Musk's last fire . He said recently Twitter It may be to the government 、 Enterprise users charge .

Actually ,Twitter Has launched a subscription service , be known as Twitter blue, After opening the service , Users can collect their favorite tweets , And classify and mark , The price is... Per month 2.99 dollar .

Analogy to the long video industry , After opening a member, there is still the operation of exclusive member advertising , It will not only make the member service itself unattractive , It will also affect the relevant businesses of the platform . After musk became a major shareholder , Yes Twitter blue It is proposed to reduce the rate 、 The suggestion to cancel the advertisement . This shows that , He intends to fundamentally solve Twitter The problem of relying too much on advertising business , And then change Twitter Business model of .

at present ,Twitter The commercial value of has been greatly reduced compared with the time of listing . As user growth stagnates , as well as Tik Tok Such as the rapid growth of short video platforms ,Twitter Advertising revenue is under pressure .

Consultancy, Insider Intelligence expect ,TikTok 2022 The annual advertising revenue may be 2021 Twice as many years , achieve 110 Billion dollars .

by comparison ,Twitter Last year's revenue was 51 Billion dollars , Basic and TikTok flat ; But considering that its growth rate is much lower than TikTok, This year is likely to be left far behind by the latter . Musk wants to achieve revenue 6 Year over year 4 Times the goal , It's quite difficult .


Musk wants Twitter from “ niche ” change “ Main stream ”, Even let most Americans use Twitter Chat , This is by no means an easy task .

User side , Twitter has stalled in growth ,MAU( Monthly active users ) Since falling below 3 After billion , So far, it has not risen back .2021 year ,Twitter Of MAU achieve 2.29 Billion ; Even if you don't have the advantage of socializing with acquaintances Meta comparison , This score is not good .

On the other hand , According to the TikTok last year 9 Monthly data , Its MAU Has more than 10 Billion ; Industry organizations Business of App This figure is expected to reach... By the end of the year 15 Billion . Of these two families MAU All over Twitter More than one body position , and TikTok Still maintaining faster growth .

Even Weibo, which focuses on the Chinese market , Its user scale is also higher than Twitter. at present , Microblogging MAU Has more than 5 Billion .

Twitter The current situation , Essentially with Founder jack · Dorsey served again seven years ago CEO It was the same , And the problem is more serious than ever .

Dorsey 2015 When we returned in , There are two difficult problems in front of him .

The first is Twitter Activity declines , This is not related to the poor community environment 、 Zombie 、 Full of lies 、 violence 、 Political manipulation is directly related to .

The second is to promote commercialization to a higher level , To achieve stable profits , And change Twitter Dependence on advertising , Meet the interests of shareholders .

at that time ,Twitter Has shown signs of fatigue .Facebook The scale of advertising realized in that year has exceeded 170 Billion dollars , and Twitter There is a growing gap with the former , Not only is the scale of revenue less than a fraction of the former , And still losing money .

Regarding this , Dorsey had a deep experience ,“ We have to make a very difficult restructuring of the company .”

The goal of Dorsey's second return is to solve the above two problems , And then help Twitter A new lease on life . However , until 2021 year 11 Dorsey leaves office in June CEO,Twitter It still fails to solve the problems of stagnant user growth and advertising dependence .

For commercialization , Musk also put forward targeted measures . From Musk's statement , Although he “ Hate ” advertisement , But I'm not going to let Twitter Give up advertising . While reducing the dependence on advertising business , Develop subscription service business and payment business .

by comparison , Musk's goal is bigger , It's more difficult . He not only has to reactivate the old Twitter, And let Twitter Become more “ Main stream ”, Deeper involvement in the social industry , expand Twitter The influence of .


Musk's three fires haven't really lit yet , But it has attracted employees and Twitter Advertisers' concerns .

Many employees questioned the top management of the company , Once the company is acquired , How to preserve the company culture . Some employees suspect that the company will completely violate their values , Even become Musk's “ captive ”.

According to the 《 Washington post 》 reports , There are parts Twitter The acquisition of Musk by employees “ Shocked and frustrated ”, Some employees even said they were shocked beyond words .

Twitter The concerns of employees are not unreasonable .

A person familiar with the matter said , As part of the acquisition , Musk may cut jobs , Then introduce new engineering talents . To 2028 in , Twitter equity incentive spending will also increase from 2022 Year of 9.14 US $billion rose to slightly higher than 30 Billion dollars .

On the other hand , Advertisers worry that as musk relaxes the regulation of content , Your own ads will appear in controversial posts .

Their concerns coincide with Twitter The current problems are closely related , Musk is like Dorsey , Must find a balance in it . It means , Although musk has his own goal , But we must make some compromises after joining the master , This is bound to weaken Musk's understanding of Twitter The stimulating effect of .

Compared with the concerns of employees and customers , Social media “ value ” Is it as big as you think , It's also a question that goes straight to the essence .

Whether musk or anyone else , Look ahead Twitter The reason is that it has the leading position of social media , Have great influence , There is value potential .

One side , The public domain attribute of social media , It's fermenting 、 It has natural advantages in guiding public opinion . Domestic microblogs are calculated according to the size of users , Distance byte 、 tencent 、 The gap between the three giants of Alibaba is obvious , It can only be regarded as a second-line Internet platform ; But it's entertaining 、 Played the role of the center of public opinion in social events . Its public opinion value can be seen .

Twitter Content attributes of more meta , It also reflects the great influence of public opinion in political events . For example, former US President trump , He often passed before he was sealed Twitter To influence the direction of public opinion .


However ,Twitter Whether our influence can be translated into real income and profits , Put a big question mark on it . last year 51 $100 million in revenue , It's just like Facebook parent company Meta Of 1179 Billion dollars in revenue 4%.

Musk hasn't officially taken over yet Twitter, Many reform plans have been offered , It's quite a big fight . He also said this morning , If the acquisition is successful, the company will focus on core software engineering 、 Design 、 Information security and server hardware .

meanwhile , He also responded to questions about whether he had excellent software skills , He said that software managers must write good software .“ Or you won't ride like a cavalry captain !”

However , Judging from his prescription , Most of them are difficult to achieve quick results 、 as the medicine took effect , the symptoms lessened ; and “ Return to the mainstream ” Such a goal is not only difficult , And it is contrary to the trend of the whole Internet from graphic to video era .

This may indicate , Even better than musk , It's hard to avoid something powerful that can't be caught . Musk's previous trading company , Whether it's Tesla 、SpaceX still SolarCity etc. , The scale of its end users is millions , At least dozens ; but Twitter It's a product used by hundreds of millions of people every day , Its governance is obviously very different from managing factories and supply chains .

Twitter Though small , Five zang organs . Facing this old and lonely social media , Believe in first principles and “ Do wonders vigorously ” Musk wants to turn corruption into magic , Not at all “ SanBanFu ” You can get . How to meet the demands of users 、 Establish a new balance between platform atmosphere and commercial realization , The long-term test of Musk's ability to manage large communities .

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