current position:Home>The second echelon is the banner of anti growth. What enlightenment will the sales of new energy vehicles bring in April?

The second echelon is the banner of anti growth. What enlightenment will the sales of new energy vehicles bring in April?

2022-05-07 18:47:4536kr

Shanghai offers two resumption of work “ White list ” after , New energy vehicle brands have also given an expected sales and delivery report card . In summary, it is ,“ If you fall less, you win ”. among , The performance of some second tier car companies is better .

4 Mid month , Li Bin 、 He Xiaopeng 、 Yu Chengdong said one after another , This has also prepared the outside world for the Waterloo of the automobile industry . The second quarter will be more than half , It's probably not the lucky season for new energy vehicles . however , What can car companies learn from these two months , It is likely to be related to the industry in the second half of the year , And even longer .

The supply chain pushes the brakes on orders

By the end of time , Mainstream new energy vehicle enterprises 4 The monthly report card is as follows ( The caliber of some car enterprises is the order quantity ):

Zero run 9087 car 、 Xiao peng 9002 car 、 Which zha 8813 car 、 Wei to 5074 car 、 Ideal 4167 car 、 Co creation 3084 car 、 Polar krypton 2137 car 、 Polar fox 1140 car .

obviously , The malaise of the new forces is reasonable , Xiao Peng still has the strength , Ideal and Wei come under more pressure . In case of supply chain interruption , Ensure that the production of products does not “ drops ” It's an almost impossible task , In particular, the automotive industry will not make a large amount of excess reserves for parts inventory under normal circumstances , It is mainly the manufacturing industry that hoards 、 Inventories are sensitive .

There is also a lot of unexpected information , For example, Zero run, first delivery to the top , And the falling trend , He Chuang is basically the same 3 month , Krypton's performance is still rising .

Starting from the three traditional powers of the new forces ,“ Wei Xiaoli ” Delivery volume fell month on month 49%、42%、62%, The year-on-year changes are -29%、75%、-25%.

Xiao peng P7 deliver 3714 car , Xiao peng P5 deliver 3564 car , Xiao peng G3 deliver 1724 car . Xiao Peng obviously maintained the greatest stability , But the hottest P7 The impact of production reduction is the most serious , It fell by nearly 60% month on month . therefore , Although the decline is small , But the loss is not low . Need to know ,3 month , Only Xiaopeng P7 Just delivered 9183 car .

by comparison , Wei to CEO Li Bin is 4 Early warning was issued at the beginning of the month :“ A car can't be produced without one part .” Affected by the supply chain ,4 month 9 The whole vehicle production of riweilai is suspended . from 4 month 15 The day begins , Hefei production base is gradually resuming production . Compared with the current supply chain situation 4 The month is slightly better , The overall pressure is gradually reduced .

most “ blue ” Should be ideal , Ideal L9 On the line, interrupted by the epidemic , Ideal ONE Still favored by consumers , But from ideal founder and President Shen Yanan to 4 In response to the decline in monthly delivery, we can see the difficulties :“ Ideal car Changzhou base is located in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province , Located in the center of the Yangtze River Delta , The ideal auto parts supplier exceeds 80% It is distributed in the Yangtze River Delta , And a large part of them are located in Shanghai 、 Kunshan, Jiangsu Province .”

“ Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta , Some suppliers located in Shanghai, Kunshan, Jiangsu and other regions are unable to supply , Some suppliers even shut down completely 、 Outage , As a result, the existing parts inventory can not continue to maintain production after digestion , This pair of ideal cars 4 The production in January has a great impact , The delivery of new cars of some users is delayed .” He said .

by comparison , The second echelon is 4 Moon won a small victory .

Zero run delivery volume fell only month on month 9.7%, Zero run Technology CEO Zhu Jiangming said to the outside world , It's just “ In the first half of the month, when the epidemic was not too serious, we caught it tightly ”; Polar krypton 4 Monthly orders increased month on month 19%, And officials revealed that new orders in a single month hit a record high .

Co creation 4 month 3084 Order quantity and 3 month 3016 Taiwan is basically flat , The reason is with Xiao Peng P7 Similar explosion strategy —— Co creation Z03. stay 13 Ten thousand yuan -17 Within the price range of ten thousand yuan , Co creation Z03 Is the “ hexagon ” warrior , Car engine 、 dynamic system 、 The endurance is at the first-line level , And cost-effective . It is worth mentioning that , By 2022 year 4 End of month , A total of... Stores have been built 179 home , Cover 120 city , Demand and channel guarantee have decentralized advantages .

Zero run 、 Polar krypton 、 He Chuang and even Xiao Peng , These players who are still robust against the trend , What enlightenment does it bring to the industry ?

The Enlightenment of stress resistance

The car companies with the most serious decline , Just because supply chain problems are “ Around Shanghai ”. In turn to see , Car companies with less tension , First of all, the location distance keeps the vehicle production capacity .

The specific term , Xiaopeng's main base is Zhaoqing, Guangdong , Zero run No. 1 Factory is located in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province , Nezha's factory is in Tongxiang, Zhejiang Province 、 Yichun , He Chuang and Xiao Peng belong to Guangdong Department , Production capacity and reserve capacity are in Nansha, Guangzhou 、 Hangzhou, Zhejiang .

It must be admitted that , Supply chain has natural agglomeration effect , Therefore, the whole vehicle still needs decentralized supply chain enterprises to complete production . for example , Some of Xiaopeng's motor related suppliers are located in Shanghai , Therefore, the production capacity will be affected after the inventory is exhausted . And ideal, even if the factory is not in Changzhou , Will also be like Wei Lai , Facing supply disruption .

For all that , Based on the consideration of ensuring more capacity , The expansion of automobile enterprises is still a potential guarantee , Especially in the face of capacity climbing, card position war and longer-term development after the end of the epidemic . The first quarter of this year , The second phase of Guangzhou intelligent ecological factory of gac-e'an was completed , newly added 10 Annual production capacity of 10000 vehicles ; Dongfeng Honda signed the annual production capacity agreement in Wuhan 12 Investment agreement for a new electric vehicle factory of 10000 vehicles ; Annual production capacity of FAW Audi 15 Jilin new energy plant with 10000 vehicles has also been put on record .

The king in this respect is BYD , According to the officially disclosed information such as production , BYD has Hefei at least this year 、 jinan 、 zhengzhou 、 Xiangyang and other places 、 Serve more than... Of its different models 6 A new factory is put into operation . BYD, which does not compete with the new forces at the same level , It was sold in April 105475 Passenger cars , Year on year growth 136.5%, among DM hybrid 48072 car ,EV Pure electricity is 57403 car .

And BYD's Enlightenment , Namely “ Double redundancy ”, One is capacity redundancy , The second is supply chain redundancy .

Ideal founder Li Xiang 4 Month sent a circle of friends , Call on auto brands to go deep into the supply chain , Focus on 、 Aid often overlooked low-level suppliers . They are most vulnerable to external intrusion , But it is also an indispensable part . The epidemic has made car companies more certain , Need to strengthen communication and cooperation with suppliers , Mutual support 、 Resist risk .

On the other hand , There is only a rich supply chain Ecology , In order to give car companies more choices , The profits will not be diluted by the industrial chain . Rare things are precious , technology 、 resources 、 Industrial relations are like this . For a business , If you give up something because of short-term interests , It may become a shackle or even a threat to itself in the near future , Then it needs to think twice .

For manufacturing , Stability concerns life and death , The fluctuation of one node will affect the whole network . Nansha District where hechuang automobile is located , We are actively promoting the integration and innovation of the third generation semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry . From wafer production to chip design 、 Packaging and Application , Whole industry chain “ Near the door ”. When car companies expand their layout , With the local government 、 It will become a clearer focus for Industry institutions to cultivate regional supply chain Ecology . With the spark of scattered clusters , Burn out the haze of the epidemic .

meanwhile , This is also the time to strengthen the core technical force . BYD's blade battery is still unique in the industry , It is also the only one in China to have IGBT Automobile enterprises with complete industrial chain . Whether it's daily or under special circumstances , Manufacturers with stronger autonomy , Development will be more comfortable .

The focus of industry pressure may be in the second half of the year

although 4 Affected by the epidemic in January , For many new energy vehicles Q2 Sales performance poured cold water , But this will also be a season with recovery and energy accumulation as the main melody .

Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, said , The car market was under great pressure in the second quarter , The situation is extremely grim , Its trend is closely related to the recovery speed of Shanghai under the epidemic situation , Retail sales are expected to achieve zero growth throughout the year .5 month 5 Japan , He wrote again that ,“ As the only consumer goods that are not popular , Passenger car consumption continues to be depressed , More measures are needed to promote car market consumption .”

In the way , Due to the pressure of government funds , Therefore, we should give full play to the tax reduction effect of individual income tax on car purchase , Drive the growth of automobile consumption .

The consumer end , The policy is already in action , hope Q2 Can have a positive effect .4 month 25 Japan , Issued by the general office of the state council 《 Opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption 》, Propose to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles . Jiangxi Province in 4 month 28 Announced Wednesday ,5 month 1 solstice 7 month 31 Raise policy funds 7600 10000 yuan to support Automobile Exhibition , Individual consumers can draw lottery subsidies .

4 month 29 Japan , Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced the policy , from 5 month 1 solstice 6 month 30 Japan , Ceiling subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles 10000 element / car , Guangzhou and Shenzhen will add 4 10000 car purchase indicators .

The recovery of the production side requires the active cooperation of enterprises and various parties . Chen Yudong, President of Bosch China 5 month 1 Said Monday , There are two problems with returning to work , One is the lack of closed-loop management staff , The output of the factory is not enough ; Second, the resumption of production by suppliers at all levels is too slow . In short , Insufficient total capacity recovery , And the conduction is too slow . He suggested canceling “ White list ”, Speed up the resumption of work and production .

Huaxi Securities Cui Yan, chief analyst of the automotive industry, believes that , After the resumption of production, the capacity elasticity of the factory is still relatively large , Work overtime 、 Two shifts are expected to fill the supply gap in the early stage , But capacity recovery will also be in 6 About month .5 month 6 Japan , Many media reports , Tesla is hoping to start from 5 month 16 A two shift system has been implemented in the factory in Shanghai since August , Let the production capacity return to the policy track as soon as possible .

If you refer to the first quarter and April , Cost effective brands run like zero 、 He Chuang et al , Maybe get back to your rhythm faster . Weilai, which is more luxurious, is working with its partners to meet the demand of orders , And the ideal of closer relationship with the Yangtze River Delta , We need to pay more attention to epidemic control and resumption of work and childbirth . But anyway , Car companies will not let the crisis be just a crisis , Check for defects and make up for omissions 、 Consolidate foundation , Everything is unfolding silently , This is also a different kind of competition .

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Hong Kong Stock Research Institute ”(ID:ganggushe), author : Hong Kong Stock Research Institute ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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