current position:Home>Shein, is it worth $100 billion?

Shein, is it worth $100 billion?

2022-05-07 19:15:58Open pineapple Finance

writing | Open a pineapple (kaiboluocaijing), author | Wu Jiaoying , edit | Jin yuyu

Making money for years SHEIN, There's no way to keep a low profile .

SHEIN( Xiyin ), A cross-border e-commerce brand focusing on fast fashion and cost-effective women's clothing , Less than 10 Year time , Design 、 Production in China , market 、 Consumers are overseas , Take the rare in the industry B2C The form , Have their own independent website and APP, go by the name of “ China Version ZARA”.

Because it focuses on European and American markets , Plus the founder team rarely shows up ,SHEIN Rarely seen in public view and media coverage . lately ,SHEIN With “ China's most mysterious Unicorn company ” Identity attracts attention , Because it is reported by many media that it is carrying out a new round of financing , The post investment valuation may reach 1000 Billion dollars ( Renminbi equivalent 6666 One hundred million yuan ).

An unlisted company valued at $100 billion , What is the concept ? Analysis Agency CB Insights data display , In the global list of Unicorn startups , This valuation is second only to 1400 Billion bytes jump and 1003 $ SpaceX.

A cross-border e-commerce brand engaged in fast fashion clothing business , It's really worth hundreds of billions of dollars ? From three sets of numbers , Or you can see one or two .

First, financing and valuation . Bloomberg recently reported that ,SHEIN Is raising a new round of at least 10 Billion dollar financing , Investors include transatlantic capital 、 Sequoia China 、 Tiger Global Fund . Before that , According to Tianyan ,SHEIN Has completed five rounds of publicly disclosed financing , The last time 2020 year 8 Monthly financing , Its valuation is only 150 Billion dollars .

Second, scale and growth rate . Based on the research reports of several securities companies and media reports , By 2020 year ,SHEIN continuity 6 The annual growth rate exceeds 100%,2020 Annual revenue is about 100 Billion dollars ,2021 The annual sales volume doubled compared with the previous year . The latest data from dolphin society shows ,SHEIN 2021 The annual sales volume is 1000 One hundred million yuan , Growth of 89%.

Third, users and daily activities .PYMNTS The shopping app leaderboard shows , 2021 year 5 The month and 2022 year 1 month ,SHEIN Of APP Twice more downloads than Amazon . According to the delay LatePost reports ,2021 year 6 month ,SHEIN More than registered users 1.2 Billion , Day live user (DAU) exceed 3000 ten thousand .

Li Chengdong, founder of dolphin club, Xiangkai pineapple financial analysis , A valuation of 100 billion dollars , Represents the capital to SHEIN High expectations , From the development of this enterprise in the past few years GMV In terms of growth rate and growth ,“ It's not a big problem ”. in addition , He said ,SHEIN No shortage of money , Has been profitable .

What is worth exploring is , Behind these bright data , Going overseas alone SHEIN How to become a unicorn ? Where does the confidence of $100 billion valuation come from ? Whether it will be copied , Where will it go ?

SHEIN Your overseas customs clearance password : The price is low 、 There are many things 、 New express

open SHEIN Its official website , European and American models with bright smiles 、 Display pictures with bright colors 、 Popular design elements , It seems to be no different from the common European and American fast fashion brands .

But let's look at the unit price of goods , This is just a “ There is a lot of competition in the clothing industry ”:14 A dollar dress 、9 Dollars a piece T T-shirt 、24 Dollars a pair of jeans 、2 A dollar set of accessories …… The lowest price in the same category ,ZARA than SHEIN Higher than 6-10 dollar .

The price is so low , There's a lot of discount , The official website is as low as 4 Folded Slogan Flickering , Several half price items have been sold out . Every big promotion is more exaggerated , last year “ Black five ” period ,SHEIN near 1 Ten thousand items are discounted , The highest discount 75%, The more you buy , More discounts .

SHEIN Official website

The quantity of goods is also large enough to be dazzling , The dress has 8 More than 10000 articles ,T Shirt you 3 More than 10000 pieces , Ornaments 、 shoes 、 The product links of the package are up to 17 m . Last week , On average, the official website is updated every day 6800 New product , At present, women's wear is on sale as many as 34 Thousands of pieces of .

The price 、 Number 、 New speed , contrast ZARA、H&M And other traditional fast fashion brands , It's hard not to let overseas consumers in the middle and low-end market “ It's delicious ”.

stay Instagram、Facebook Wait for social platforms , Countless young people sun out SHEIN My shopping list , Direct call “ addiction ”“ Pleasantly surprised ”, Chinese young people living overseas also share in xiaohongshu SHEIN 's skirt 、 Fitness clothes and trinkets , call “ Pick the best from a wide range of clothes , Super healing ”“ I don't want to wait for domestic transshipment ,SHEIN To meet the needs ”.

SHEIN dress source / Official website

Such attraction , Reflected in the data , Give Way SHEIN It's hard to keep a low profile .

Zhongtai Securities Research Report shows ,2021 year 5 month ,SHEIN With 1400 More than 10000 downloads than Amazon , In the super 20 Shopping in three countries APP Ranked first in downloads . Guojin securities research report predicts ,SHEIN 2021 Annual sales exceed 160 Billion dollars , Among them, women's clothing accounts for more than 60% .

According to Chen Tao, senior analyst of Analysys brand retail industry ,SHEIN Can quickly become a cross-border e-commerce unicorn in just a few years , The first reason is Find the right market position , Directly face consumers with the brand concept of focusing on cost performance , Taking the lead in breaking the international market's recognition that China's FMCG products are equivalent to “ white card ”“ Less known and inferior brand ” The cognitive .

SHEIN The brand was officially established in 2014 year , before ,SHEIN Founder Xu Yangtian has been rooted in cross-border e-commerce for several years , It was the popular wedding dress business at that time , Made the first pot of gold . later , Xu Yangtian saw the overseas fast fashion women's clothes , Decide to transform .

Since its birth ,SHEIN Walking is a different way 、 A bold and adventurous way .

Chen Tao introduced to kaipineapple finance , At the time , Most Chinese enterprises engaged in cross-border e-commerce , It's all about B2B Pattern , Sell bulk commodities to overseas traders or do OEM production for foreign brands , Then they sell the products to local consumers . There are also some businesses that directly face consumers , But basically with Amazon 、 Alibaba express is a third-party platform for sales .

and SHEIN, It was almost the only company to take B2C Model of cross-border e-commerce companies . Many overseas clothing brands are like that ,SHEIN Since its birth, it has established its own official website , Then I made a mobile phone APP.

“ Independent stations and third-party platforms , It can be compared with the popular ‘ Private traffic ’ And ‘ Public domain traffic ’ Concept .” Chen Tao thinks , It is such an independent channel , Give Way SHEIN Get rid of many rules of third-party platforms , Have the opportunity to build their own brand power and operation ability , And from a simple fast fashion brand, it has gradually developed into a platform with vertical e-commerce nature .

For the sea brand , It's not difficult to build an independent station , The difficulty is where to find traffic . but SHEIN Very lucky , Because of doing SEO( Search engine optimization ) Xu Yangtian who was born , Familiar with traffic marketing .

From the early stage of brand launch ,SHEIN It's just Facebook、Instgram、Youtube And other overseas mainstream social platforms have registered their official accounts , A lot of advertising , Increase the exposure rate ; meanwhile , Give it back to wanghong KOL Send clothes for free 、 Distribution of coupons , In exchange for their sharing on their account “ Want to buy ”. later ,SHEIN And further launched the alliance Commission return program , Commission refund through single transaction 10%-20% Recruit members , Accelerate brand promotion and traffic precipitation .

It is through the diversion from public social platforms to private e-commerce platforms ,SHEIN Completed the original flow accumulation of going to sea .

“ Xiao Dan, come back soon ”,SHEIN How do you make a hot money ?

stay SHEIN In the jigsaw puzzle of overseas breakthrough , In addition to finding the blue ocean market 、 Self built independent station 、 Beyond precision traffic marketing , At the core of 、 It is also the most often discussed later , It is the “ Xiao Dan, come back soon ” Pattern .

So-called “ Xiao Dan, come back soon ”, namely First small batch production of different styles of products for market testing , Then feed back through the terminal data , About the “ Hot style ” Make a quick return , To maximize profits , At the same time, reduce inventory risk .

“ Women's clothing industry has very high requirements for fashion sensitivity , Whether we can grasp the demand changes of various global markets in time , Is one of the elements of success . therefore SHEIN Choose a large number of clothes with obvious design differences for sales test , See which styles are in which regions 、 Which consumer groups are more popular , Then carry out mass production of the popular funds in various markets .” Chen Tao explained .

“ Xiao Dan, come back soon ” In the mode of , Before putting a lot of test styles on the market ,SHEIN Our buyer designer team needs to get a lot of the latest fashion elements through online data and offline stores , Carry out combination design for the mastered popular elements , Give the style to the supplier , The supplier's factory looks at the drawing, prints the plate and makes the goods . This is a SHEIN One of the three major cooperation modes with garment suppliers :OEM Pattern .

OEM The mode requires printing effectiveness 5 God 、 Production aging 7 God source / SHEIN China Merchants official website

Besides ,SHEIN Ready to wear categories also take ODM Pattern and OBM Pattern Cooperate with suppliers , The former is pushed by the supplier 、 Buyers choose , The supplier is required to have independent development ability and shooting ability ; The latter partners are mostly brand suppliers , Development and design capability is required 、 Supply chain and operational capabilities , And they all need to prepare their own goods .

That means ,SHEIN At the same time with a large number of different sizes 、 Cooperate with suppliers of features . So ,SHEIN The headquarters of the company also moved from Nanjing to the Pearl River Delta where the garment supply chain is more concentrated , Landing in Panyu, Guangzhou . According to several media reports , Now SHEIN Hundreds of core suppliers are located in the Pearl River Delta .

“ Xiao Dan, come back soon ”, The supplier is required to receive small batch orders at any time , And the requirements for delivery time are very high . According to the SHEIN The cloud factory shows , Most of their orders are 100-500 Pieces of / Small batch orders for orders ,OEM、ODM The delivery time requirements are 7-11 God 、10-15 God . Therefore ,SHEIN Divide its suppliers into S、A、B、C、D common 5 A level , Hierarchical management 、 Superior bad discard .

Under such harsh conditions ,SHEIN How is it? “ Take down ” These suppliers ?

Have studied SHEIN Zhang Ke, a garment industry practitioner in the supply chain, believes that ,SHEIN Most of the cooperative suppliers should be small and medium-sized factories ,“ Because they think less about scheduling 、 More flexible , On the contrary, the efficiency is the highest .”

“ These factories may usually cooperate with many other businesses , But once SHEIN Such priority partners have the demand of exploding orders , Just give a slightly higher profit , It can quickly change roles , Give priority to scheduling production for the other party .” He explained , This is commonly known in the industry as “ Package Factory ”, It can also be understood as “ Flexible supply chain ” The basic version .

According to Zhang Ke , Many in the industry are close to SHEIN Small and medium-sized factories in the industrial chain , Strong willingness to cooperate , In addition to the fast checkout speed 、 Short collection cycle , I have a crush on SHEIN The scale effect of .

“ Garment manufacturing is a labor-intensive industry , The cost mainly includes fabric and labor , The characteristic is that the larger the scale 、 The lower the cost 、 The higher the profit . The gross profit of the garment industry is generally 50% about , But a dress is made of 10 Ten thousand and 1000 Pieces of , The cost difference is very large , Sometimes it can compress 20%.” Therefore , Zhang Kecheng , face SHEIN There are many popular models 、 Partners with high return rate , Suppliers love to see , Even willing to undertake the extremely compressed construction period and small batch orders in the early stage .

SHEIN And the source of product circulation mode of general garment enterprises / China Thailand Securities Research Report

Li Chengdong said to kaipineapple Finance , stay SHEIN“ Xiao Dan, come back soon ” behind , There is a supplier role that manages multiple chain factories , It connects a variety of auxiliary material suppliers to the upstream , Connect multiple cooperative brands downstream . Such a large core supplier , Based on digital and intelligent system management , It can greatly improve production efficiency , Reduce the production cycle .

“ In general , The production cycle of traditional clothing brands is 2-3 Months ; Fast fashion giants such as ZARA, The first order is from the design 、 The whole cycle from production to off-line display is about 1 Months , Extreme cases can be compressed to half a month ; And those who rely on such suppliers SHEIN, The first production cycle is only half a month , In case of emergency, it will be compressed to one week .” He talked about .

In a lot of attention and Research SHEIN According to relevant practitioners , Based on strong supply chain “ Xiao Dan, come back soon ” Pattern , Plus the scale effect , It's just SHEIN To be with ZARA The key to our competition : It makes SHEIN The market reaction is faster 、 The new is faster 、 Faster shipping speed .

China's most mysterious Unicorn , Without foresight, there are near worries

As the most mysterious unicorn in China ,SHEIN There is no shortage of competitors . In recent years , To share the cake , The most exciting thing is the Internet factory at sea .

Alibaba holding the old cross-border e-commerce platform Express , In recent years, it has successively invested in the e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia Lazada、 Turkish fashion e-commerce platform Trendyol、 Indonesia's largest e-commerce platform Tokopedia etc. , Last year, it also launched a cross-border e-commerce platform for women's clothing Allylikes.

Allylikes Official website

Internet upstart 、 Hold the emerging overseas short video social platform TikTok Byte beat of , Officially launched last year TIK TOK Shopping And Independent E-commerce APP Fanno, The positioning of the latter is described as “ European version spell a lot ”. At the end of last year , Byte runout has also introduced what is known as benchmarking SHEIN Women's cross-border independent station Dmonstudio.

Dmonstudio Official website

Many analysts admitted to kaipineapple Finance , hold SHEIN Take apart all the links of , Many are not their first , The threshold is not high , To copy SHEIN The pattern of , It is not difficult to .

such as “ Xiao Dan, come back soon ”, In fact, it is a common model of China's garment industry ,“ It's just SHEIN It was applied to the blue ocean market of fast fashion going to sea, which was not concerned by many people at that time , And got external financing , Can polish the supply chain .” Zhang Kecheng .

For example KOL Want to buy , Chen Tao thinks , From the original text content of the microblog official account , Up to now, shake up the short video live broadcast of little red book , It also belongs to the mainstream marketing mode in China .“SHEIN Learn from the successful experience in China , Move overseas to try , After the first wave of sea bonus .”

Zhang Ke recalled , A few years ago , Many clothing businesses want to do sea business through Alibaba Express Platform , But many people lack courage and capital , Cross border e-commerce has never been regarded as the main business .“ however SHEIN Did this , Study the dressing styles and habits of overseas users from the beginning , After discovering the demand , Go back to China and connect the supply chain , Don't make hot money 、 Don't drill brands , Just make it cost-effective .”

Today, , When SHEIN Has enough scale advantages , And can exchange this for high profits , Reverse drive supplier , It's hard for latecomers to recreate SHEIN.

According to the investment community ,Dmonstudio Main fast fashion women's wear , Selection and SHEIN The degree of coincidence is quite high ; Cover 100 Multiple countries and regions , Overseas warehouses have been arranged all over the world ; even to the extent that , Half of the team is from SHEIN Dug up . However , The wind comes and goes quickly , This year, 2 month ,Dmonstudio On line only 3 It was announced to stop operation after three months .

In Chen Tao's opinion , Many new projects of Internet manufacturers are meant to be experimental , It's normal to enter or end like this .“ Large factories may start multiple projects at the same time , See which model has less resources but greater benefits 、 Better value for money , If it doesn't meet expectations , Just cut it off .”

go back to SHEIN In itself , Foreign aggression is not yet close , But there are many internal worries .

The most often criticized , It is its Product quality problems . Although the price has made many consumers take the initiative to lower their expectations , On social platforms at home and abroad , Such as “ The quality of clothes is generally not very good ”“ The cloth is thin 、 Small version 、 Poor texture ”“ Have a frustrating shopping experience ” There are still many comments . And then , And overseas environmentalists are right SHEIN Products are not environmentally friendly 、 Accusations of serious waste of resources .

meanwhile ,SHEIN Massive fast fashion pieces , Also cause Suspected imitation and plagiarism , Constantly encounter infringement disputes . According to the observer network , last year 6 month , British Martin boots brand Dr.Martens Prosecution SHEIN Plagiarize and use original photos for publicity , but SHEIN Then deny it . In the same month , American jewelry brand Kikay charge SHEIN A certain earring copied its product , The product was taken off the shelf .

I can see you , Even though SHEIN Has successfully sailed to the sea as a brand , But to take root in the global fast fashion field , Even seek listing in the future ,SHEIN Concerns , It is bound to change from scale 、 Efficiency and profit turn to quality 、 Image and corporate responsibility .

Dmonstudio A broken Halberd , To some extent, it proves that , Cross border e-commerce fast fashion business , It's not that easy to do .SHEIN Our internal worries can also be seen ,“ New players don't have no chance at all ”. Chen Tao thinks , Because the global clothing market is large enough ,SHEIN Our market share is not that high ,“ New players may be able to focus on more subdivided blank tracks , Make a difference , For example, Southeast Asia 、 The Middle East market , Another example is men's wear 、 Children's wear , Or swimsuit in women's clothing 、 Sports fitness clothes and other categories ”.

* Respondent's request , Zhang Ke is a pseudonym in the article .

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