current position:Home>By the Ningde era? Gem fell into valuation depression

By the Ningde era? Gem fell into valuation depression

2022-05-07 19:48:28Chinese industry information station

But before , from 2021 year 12 In June, the gem encountered 3500 After a little resistance , In the middle of the month, it turned sharply downward and entered a downward trend , In the past 5 In more than months , The gem index callback exceeded 36%, Maximum pullback approach 40%.

The last time a similar sharp rebound was in 2021 year 7 month 29 Japan , Gem rebounded again 5.32%, But after that surge , The gem was opened in 3200 spot -3500 Point to a market that continues to fluctuate .

Although the sustainability of the future rise of the gem is still not optimistic , But by contrast, this round of one-day super 5% The retaliatory rebound occurred in the early sharp correction near 40% in the future , Have a certain margin of safety .


Bottom growth enterprise market

First, have a comprehensive understanding of the gem , end 2022 year 4 month 28 Japan , Gem has 1141 Stock only , Here we need to explain in advance , Gem refers to the selection of stocks from gem 100 Only constituent stocks are used as the benchmark , It does not represent the whole picture of the gem . The first is to start from the market value , By the end of the day , More than 100 billion enterprises on the gem 11 home , Like the Ningde era (300750.SZ)、 Big Mac like Mindray medical is still rare on GEM ,500-1000 Billion only 12 home , and 100 Less than 100 million 981 home , Accounted for nearly 86%:

 Data sources :choice
Data sources :choice  

Then divide the time node into two segments , from 2020 year 4 Month to 2021 year 11 The monthly market is dominated by an upward trend ; And since 2021 year 11 Month so far , The market has entered a downward trend , Compare the gem enterprises with different market values , The overall look 100-1000 The market value of billion yuan is better ;100 Companies with a market value of less than 100 million are underperforming ; and 100-500 Gem enterprises with a market value of 100 million are in “ Niu Xiong ” The transition period has more advantages , Although the increase is not as big as the market value , But it's also more resilient .

In terms of stock style ,57% The companies listed on GEM are growth oriented , This makes the gem enjoy high growth while , It brings investors a high risk premium .

 Data sources :choice
Data sources :choice  

The second is the distribution of gem industries . Classified by Shenwan industry 29 In two categories , Machinery and equipment ( Intelligent manufacturing 、 The direction of AI )、 Computer 、 Electronics, medicine and biology basically account for half of the gem , These four sectors are characterized by emerging industries 、 High growth 、 Overvalued .

 Data sources :choice
Data sources :choice  

Since the gem is characterized by high growth 、 High risk , From the perspective of growth and risk return , end 2021 Third quarter of 2007 , The average weighted return on net assets of gem (ROE) by 9.45%, The median is 6.39%; At present, the average weighting of the gem ROE Drop to 1.03%, The median value dropped to 1.34%, It can be seen that in such a special time node , The yield of gem is not very ideal .

Since short-term yields cannot be guaranteed , What about growth ? The following growth statistics are mainly compared with nearly 3 The growth of revenue and net assets per share in . among 1141 There are nearly... Gem enterprises 3 The annual revenue growth averaged 72%, Compound annualized growth in 15% about , Diluted earnings per share is bleak , Compound annualization is only 4%.

In order to eliminate outliers , Go into segments . Market capitalization 500 The growth of more than 100 million companies is still quite obvious , near 3 Annual revenue growth in 209%, Compound annualized growth in 42%; Diluted earnings per share growth 109%, Compound annualization 24%. Market capitalization 100-500 Million of the company , near 3 The annual revenue growth is 157%, Compound annual growth 30%; Diluted earnings per share growth 93%, Compound annualization 20% about . It can be seen that the overall growth of companies with small market value is less than that of companies with large market value .

by comparison ,500 Enterprises with a market value of more than 100 million still have strong scale advantages and competitive barriers , When experiencing the impact of the epidemic or other black swan events , Although the performance growth rate may slow down , However, there will be no obvious decline or loss in the overall performance and diluted earnings per share .


Gem valuation depression

At present, we have everything A The level of implied risk premium is close to 8 year 90% Quantile level ; The market breaking rate is close to 2011 The position of the bear market in , The median range of rise and fall on the first day of opening reached an all-time low ; whole A The static P / E ratio is lower than the market low after the epidemic , But with 2018 There is still a gap at the end of the year . A number of valuation indicators gradually hit a low level .

From the price earnings ratio of the gem composite index above , To eliminate 2015 Outliers around the year , It can be basically concluded that the approximate valuation level range of gem is 27x-80x about ( The average is 50x about ). From the above historical valuation , In the last 12 years , There are only two periods below the current valuation level , Namely 2012 Years and 2018 year .

At present, there are many pullbacks on the gem as a whole , The valuation has entered a low level . But compared with historical data , At present, the price earnings ratio of the gem composite index is indeed below the average , But there is still room for further callback , After the fall, it still needs a shock buffer time .

 Data sources :choice
Data sources :choice  

And from the vertical view below , The valuation of the gem composite index is still higher than other indexes . in general , The stocks on GEM are mainly small and medium-sized , Technology 、 The proportion of biomedicine is relatively high , These two sectors are characterized by high risk 、 High yield . But at present, the profitability of the gem is not ideal after this correction , And the growth differentiation of individual stocks is more serious , Companies with large market capitalization have better growth .

Whether the gem is in “ The golden pit ”, Not only in terms of callback range , Historical data is only for reference , You can't completely use the past to push the future .

Take the gem index as an example ( contain 100 Home component stocks ), In the early , In addition to the macro environmental impact , The sharp correction of gem index is mainly due to Ningde era, the largest powerful stock in its composition (300750.SZ) And the fifth largest weight sunshine power supply (300274.SZ)2021 The impact of poor performance in the first quarter of 2013 . The performance of high-power heavy shares is less than expected , The uncertainty risk of superimposed environmental epidemic , As a result, the market's expectation of the performance and profit growth of the gem has decreased , The continuous pullback led to the spread of panic , So as to make the gem breakdown 2200 spot .

Next , It is necessary to consider whether the expected growth of the gem can be divided into shares in the future .

Most of the gem are high-tech industries , The current weight is large ( exceed 35%) It is still the power equipment sector , New energy related ( Ningde era 、 Sun power 、 Yiwei lithium energy ), And advanced manufacturing ( Huichuan technology 、 Pilot intelligence, etc )、 Health care ( Ireland Eye 、 Mindray medical 、 AMEC 、 Tiger medicine, etc ) And semiconductors ( Zhuo Shengwei 、 Third ring group, etc ) Less weight .

The problem lies in the medium, short and even long term in the future , Whether the performance growth rate of the power equipment sector will be like 2021 As high as at the beginning of the year , In fact, the recent performance of Ningde times and sunshine power has given risk tips .

In the past year , Underestimated, such as medical beauty leader aimeike (300896.SZ)、 Eye leader Aier ophthalmology (300015.SZ) etc. , These companies are still growing , But the performance of the secondary market is very weak ; And advanced manufacturing 、 Semiconductor plate , Affected by the epidemic and inflation , The slowdown in performance growth has led to mediocre market performance in the past year , But in the medium and long term, it still has strong growth potential .

The author of this article | Liu Chaoran       source | Talent magazine

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