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Musk's ambition, Tesla's troubles

2022-05-07 20:05:3636kr

Tesla's expansion pace has changed again New movement towards .

5 month 4 Japan , Foreign media reported that , Tesla plans to build a new factory near the current Tesla Shanghai Super factory , Used in the production of Model 3 and Model Y, Expected to increase 45 The annual production capacity of 10000 cars , Become Tesla in the world “ The largest car export center ”.

Soon ,“ Tesla is about to build a second factory in Shanghai ” It was sent to microblog hot search .

however ,5 month 5 Japan , There are also media reports that , The accurate information obtained from Tesla insiders is “ Is to expand production , Not the second factory ”.

But whether it's expanding production or building a second factory , It means that Tesla's production capacity will be further improved . Not to mention Tesla CEO Elon · Musk once gave 2022 Tesla's delivery volume in has set a “ Year-on-year growth 50%、 It is even possible to achieve 60% growth ” The goal of .

Musk's exposed ambition undoubtedly stimulated the rise of Tesla's share price , After the news of production expansion flows out , As of US east time 5 month 4 Closed yesterday , Tesla shares rose 4.77%, Report on 952.62 dollar , The total market value 9869 Billion dollars .

However , For the complacent musk and his Tesla , External concerns have never stopped .

1、 The big winner of new energy vehicles

As the automobile industry moves towards the era of new energy , Tesla is undoubtedly the most concerned new energy vehicle enterprise in the world , And its founder Elon · Musk also became the biggest winner , With Tesla, the world's richest man .

According to Forbes China data ,2021 year , Musk's wealth has increased 680 Billion dollars . stay 4 month 5 Published by Forbes on the th 《2022 List of the world's billionaires 》 On , According to the deadline 2022 year 3 month 11 Daily stock price calculation , Musk 2190 The net worth of $100 million surpasses Amazon founder Jeff · bezos ( oneself and one's family 1710 Billion dollars  ), Become the richest man in the world .

stay 2022 First quarter 3 In months , Tesla also made huge profits .

Tesla's results show , first quarter , Its total revenue is 187.56 Billion dollars , year-over-year 103.89 Billion dollar growth 81%, among , Automobile business income reached 168.6 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 87%. Tesla's net profit in the first quarter reached 33.18 Billion dollars , year-over-year 4.38 Billion dollars soared 657.53%.

This performance exceeded expectations , before , Wall Street expects Tesla's revenue 、 The profits are respectively 180 Billion dollars 、26 Around $100 million .

For the growth of automobile sales revenue , Tesla attributed it to the increase in car delivery and the rise in single car prices .

In the earnings report , Tesla points out , By 2022 year 3 month 31 Three months of the day ,Model 3 and Model Y Cash delivery increased 111915 pen ,Model S and Model X Cash delivery increased by 10305 pen .

since this year on , With the price rise of raw materials in the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry , tesla 、 BYD 、 Xiao peng 、 Weilai, Weima and many other new energy vehicle brands set off a wave of price increases , The price increase ranges from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan .

In this year 3 month 10 Japan -17 Japan 8 In the day time , Tesla went crazy 3 Second price increase , Raise the price of some domestic products Model 3、Model Y Model price , The price range is 1 Wan to 3 Ten thousand yuan . among , only Model Y The price of a high-performance model increases in a few days 3 Ten thousand yuan .

Tesla's website shows , end 5 month 5 Japan ,Model Y The price of the high-performance version is 41.79 Ten thousand yuan .

( chart / Tesla official )

meanwhile , Tesla also raised the price of its products in the United States , Price range from 2 Thousand to 1.25 Ten thousand dollars .

This is related to 2020 Tesla's move to seize the market in is very different :2020 year , Tesla has repeatedly lowered the price of its products ,1 month , Tesla will be made in China Model 3 The basic car price starts from 35.6 Ten thousand yuan down to 32.4 Ten thousand yuan , The price after subsidy is 29.9 Ten thousand yuan .5 month , In new energy vehicles 30 After the announcement of ten thousand yuan subsidy threshold , Tesla will Model 3 The starting price of the standard endurance upgrade has been adjusted to 29.18 Ten thousand yuan , The subsidized price is as low as 27.16 Ten thousand yuan ……

The reflection behind this , It is the improvement of the demand of the whole new energy vehicle market .

Relevant data display ,2021 year , The global annual sales volume of new energy vehicles is 675 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 108%. among , The year-on-year growth of China's production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 160%, Sales of 352 Thousands of cars .

2021 In the year , Tesla delivered 93.62 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 87.4%. This year, 1-3 month , Tesla delivers 310048 car , about 2021 One third of the annual delivery , Up to 69%.

On the day of the release of this brilliant financial report (4 month 21 Japan ), Tesla's share price once rose 12%, Although at the close, the increase narrowed to 3.23%, The share price still closed at 1008.78 dollar / stocks .

2、 Cars no longer make hard money ?

Behind Tesla's brilliant first quarter results , It reflects not only the changes in the market demand of new energy vehicles , Further , People see the new possibilities after the automobile enters the new energy era : Stop making hard money .

2022 First quarter , The gross profit margin of Tesla automobile business has reached 32.9%, And the same period last year , The data is 26.5%. If such gross profit margin is placed in The farmer mountain spring 、 Consumer goods companies like Moutai in Guizhou , It may be called “ range ”. But in the automotive industry , Such gross profit margin can reach the top , The outside world even uses “ A record ” To describe .

「 Bullet financial view 」 According to Oriental Wealth Choice Data statistics , At present , stay A There are about... Vehicle enterprises listed on shares and Hong Kong shares 29 home , Given that most car companies have not yet released 2022 First quarter results , Therefore, only 2020 year 、2021 Financial data for , The gross profit margin of these car companies is difficult to compete with Tesla .

29 Among the listed vehicle enterprises , Including SAIC 、 Including GAC group 9 Home car companies , The gross profit margin is lower than 10%, BAIC Blue Valley, which was once proud in the new energy vehicle market , The gross profit margin is as low as 0.81%.

Including BYD 、“ Auto independent top three ” geely 、 Great wall and Chang'an , And the new forces of car building 、 Xiao Peng and others 17 Home car companies , The gross profit margin remained at 10%-20% Between .

among , Take the high-end line 、 Wei Lai, who is constantly benchmarked with Tesla , Although the gross profit margin is 17 Ranking first among automobile enterprises , achieve 18.88%, But it is still far away from Tesla . Even Tesla's biggest rival BYD , The gross profit margin is only 13.02%, set up 2013 New low since , Just look at the gross profit margin of its automobile business , There is only a 17.39%, Year-on-year decline in 7.81%.

Gross margin over 21% Only Beijing Auto 、 Ideal car Two families , Respectively 21.4%、21.33%.

And look at the world , Gross profit margin like Tesla , Also left behind a number of luxury car brands .2021 year , Mercedes 、 The annual gross profit margins of BMW and Audi are 12.7%、17.6% and 10.7%.

“ Tesla's gross profit margin is much higher than that of other companies in the automotive industry , On the one hand, it is related to its high brand positioning , The selling price of the main selling models is relatively high ; On the other hand , In the field of new energy vehicles , Tesla holds a large number of orders , When talking about cooperation with upstream enterprises such as power battery enterprises , Have more say , This also helps to reduce its cost . in addition , The capacity of Shanghai Super factory has been increased , It has also further reduced the cost of Tesla .” A person who works for a new power enterprise of car manufacturing in China is right 「 Bullet financial view 」 Express .

And Tesla also said frankly in the financial report , The main reason for the increase in gross profit margin is that with the increase of production capacity of factories in Shanghai ,Model Y Favorable changes have taken place in the sales and production structure of .“ Although the raw materials 、 goods 、 Logistics and speed-up costs rise , However, due to localized procurement and manufacturing in China ,Model 3 and Model Y The average unit cost of has decreased .”

It is reported that ,2021 year , The delivery volume of Tesla Shanghai Super factory increased by as much as... Year-on-year 235%, achieve 48.41 Thousands of cars , Annual deliveries at Tesla 93.62 The proportion of 10000 vehicles reached 51.7%. When Tesla launched into the European market , Shanghai Super factory plays a great role , exceed 16 Ten thousand cars were delivered from Shanghai factory to overseas markets such as Europe .

therefore , It is not difficult to understand that after the news that Tesla's Shanghai plant will expand production , Tesla's share price soared .

The aforementioned new forces of car building further pointed out that , The gross profit margin of new forces of car making is generally higher than that of traditional car enterprises , One reason is that the new forces of car making have more channels to make money , For example, the income from selling new energy points 、 Software service income, etc .

3、 Car companies besieged Tesla

But at present, Tesla seems to be making great progress , But there are no hidden worries .

The biggest worry still comes from capacity . Early years , Tesla has been in deep trouble due to insufficient power battery capacity and other reasons “ Capacity hell ”. Now , Although Tesla's production capacity has been greatly improved , But it can be said that , Capacity constraints remain Tesla's problem .

With 3 month 22 The opening ceremony of Tesla's Berlin super factory was held on the th , Tesla follows Nevada 、 After New York and Shanghai , It has the first in the world 4 A super factory .

It is reported that , The annual output of Tesla Berlin super factory will reach 50 Thousands of cars , The main production models are Model 3 and Model Y. thus , Tesla is in North America 、 China 、 The three major global car markets in Europe have established their own production bases .

Only global capacity has stabilized , High volume 、 High-income 、 High gross profit margin is guaranteed . But now , The production capacity of Tesla Berlin plant is still in its infancy .

And now that the epidemic is repeated , The development of automobile supply chain is blocked , The sharp increase in demand for new energy vehicles is transmitted to the upstream, resulting in a shortage of chips 、 The problem of raising the price of raw materials remains unresolved , In this context , Including Tesla 、 Automobile enterprises including Weilai have encountered shutdown crisis .

4 month 14 Japan , Xiao peng car CEO He Xiaopeng wrote on his social platform that ,“ If the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to resume production dynamically , In May, all vehicle factories in China may stop production .”

from 3 month 28 The day is coming 4 month 19 Japan , Tesla Shanghai plant has experienced the longest shutdown since it was completed and put into operation ——22 God . From the calculation time of financial statements , The impact of shutdown will be mainly concentrated in the second quarter .

But musk clearly does not intend to slow down the pace of expansion , He once pointed out in a conference call that ,2022 Tesla will deliver more cars than 2021 Annual growth 50%, It is even possible to achieve 60% The growth of . Even press 50% Growth rate calculation , tesla 2022 Annual car deliveries will also exceed 140 Thousands of cars .

With the expansion of production capacity , The cost input will also increase . But at the moment , The price of raw materials for new energy vehicles has not dropped significantly .

Lithium iron phosphate and the core raw materials of ternary batteries —— Take the selling price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide as an example .

According to the market data of Shanghai Nonferrous metal network ,2021 The purity at the beginning of the year is 99.5% The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 5.3 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of , At the end of the year 27 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of , In the year to 4 month 12 Japan , It has risen to 49.8 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of , During this period, the increase was as high as 839.62%, end 5 month 5 Japan , The average price is 46.15 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of .

The purity is 56.5% Battery grade lithium hydroxide ( Micro powder type )2021 The average price at the beginning of the year is 5.5 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of , In the year to 4 month 12 The sun has risen to 49.95 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of , During this period, the increase was as high as 808.18%, end 5 month 5 Japan , The average price is 47.7 Ten thousand yuan / Tons of .

If the supply and demand of upstream raw materials are still difficult to balance in the short term , Even new energy vehicle giants like Tesla , Will eventually face pressure .

The bigger crisis lies in : Tesla has more and more opponents , And the old opponent is also running wildly .

4 month 3 Friday night , BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, officially announced that it would stop the production of fuel vehicles , Show your ambition in the field of new energy vehicles .

Now , Except BYD 、 New forces of car making and other players are shunting the market , Traditional car companies, whether they are BBA、 The public 、 Toyota and other international auto companies are still SAIC 、 geely 、 Great wall and other Chinese auto enterprises , Are accelerating the transformation of electrification , The end is to enter the new energy vehicle market and fight .

Relevant data display ,2021 year , porsche Taycan The delivery volume in the Chinese market has reached 7315 car , Global sales 41296 car , yes 2020 More than twice as many years , Even beyond the classic Porsche 911. Need to know , porsche Taycan It's expensive , beginner 88 Ten thousand yuan , Top configuration 180 More than ten thousand yuan , The average selling price is one million yuan .

In addition, according to the data released by Volkswagen China ,2021 The general public ID The cumulative sales volume of the series in China is 70625 car . Besides ,2021 year , BMW Group's sales of pure electric vehicles exceed 10 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 133%.

in fact , The diversion effect brought by the increase of competitors , In recent years, Tesla's market share has been reflected .2019 year 、2020 year , Tesla's global market share is 17%、16%.2021 year , Tesla still ranks first in the global electric vehicle market , But market share has fallen to 14.4%.

And the current Tesla , Still not “ Second leg ” To support the company . such as , Tesla was already 2015 Years have come to light 、2019 In, it was a self-developed and self-produced power battery with frequent big actions , Still prefer to stay in “ The story ” level .

The present , The automobile industry is striding from the era of fuel vehicles to the era of new energy , This is Tesla's chance , But under the general trend , The development window period of new car building forces such as Tesla is also shortening , Good grades at the moment , It's not enough to make Tesla relax .

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Bullet financial view ”(ID:zidancaiguan), author : Xu Yun , edit : The egg always ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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