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Credit Suisse: six Super trends and investment logic in 2022

2022-05-07 20:34:3436kr

Volatile global markets are sapping investor confidence , The high and low index is also displayed in the current market , How difficult it is to find benefits .

For investors , If it is impossible to predict short-term fluctuations , Then look for long-term certainty or try .

In recent days, , Credit Suisse in a study , Pointed out 2022 Six Super trends in , And the investment logic of these trends , Hope to help investors break through the business cycle limit , Looking for a long-term certainty .

The six Super trends are Anxious Society 、 infrastructure 、 Technology 、 Silver economy 、 Millennial values and climate change .

Anxious Society : Inclusive capitalism

There are still many challenges in today's society . Even if the COVID-19 is no longer a major problem in the hearts of the world , But personal and homeland security 、 Job security , And the rising cost of living and its impact on poverty and inequality . Affordability 、 Adapting to the labor market and personal safety will remain a long-term priority for people around the world , And create opportunities for the private sector and the public service sector to work together to meet social needs .

The focus of attention under this trend is :1. Can provide food that helps reduce 、 housing 、 Companies that solve the cost of basic needs such as health care or education .2. Strong human capital management ( Including staff training ) Ability and support multicultural companies , And provide further education for employees when there are significant changes in skill needs / A company that develops skills or educates .3. Companies that help improve people's safety and security .

Anxious Society —— The super trend of inclusive capitalism is mainly reflected in affordability 、 employment 、 Personal safety .

Affordability : The epidemic has frustrated Life , Affordability has become one of the key issues concerned by people . Inflation is now at its highest level for decades , Further threaten people's affordability . according to Ipsos A survey of , The global 75% Of respondents think 2022 In, prices in his country will rise faster than personal income . As food prices continue to rise , Hunger will still be a problem .2022 year 4 month , The FAO food price index has risen to an all-time high . Trying to reduce food prices is becoming increasingly important . The World Bank recommends , Digital agriculture can be used to increase production , Reduce food loss and waste , And help farmers get fair pay .

In terms of employment : How to attract talents is after the COVID-19 has significantly affected the labor market , Problems to be considered in the face of labor shortage . Companies can cope with labor shortages in two ways : Become “ A model ” employer ; Or capital can be used to replace labor force to reduce the scale of labor force , This also requires other skills . To be the best employer , In addition to understanding its interest demands , Other factors are also increasingly important , namely “ social factors ” Importance . according to CNBC/SurveyMonkeyWorkforce stay 2021 A survey conducted in , Most of the employees who participated in the survey said , They value diversity as a priority 、 Fair and inclusive (DEI) Institutional effectiveness . meanwhile , Skills upgrading and retraining remain key to ensuring that employees can meet future challenges , At the same time, it also creates an ideal career development path for prospective job seekers after joining the organization .

Personal safety : People pay more attention to issues that directly affect their personal lives . The first is the health and safety issues related to COVID-19 . secondly , After the epidemic forced many employees to work remotely , Personal safety issues — Network security has become a concern . according to CheckPointSoftware Of 《2022 Annual safety report 》,2021 In, the global cyber attacks against institutions increased compared with the previous year 50%. When infrastructure is targeted , People will be particularly affected , example ColonialPipeline in 2021 year 5 Monthly outage 7 God , Led to the United States about 1 ten thousand 2000 There is a shortage of gasoline at the gas station .

infrastructure : Fill the gap

2022 year , As us and European governments spend money on new infrastructure projects , Most of the expenditure will go into transportation 、 Energy transformation and communication infrastructure . These plans raise inflation concerns , But transportation 、 Many infrastructure companies under the sub theme of energy and Telecommunications , Inflation protection can be provided through contracts with inflation index pricing formula . In the past two years, , Due to insufficient investment in existing infrastructure , Delayed maintenance , The investment gap in infrastructure still exists . therefore , Bridging the gap is still an urgent and long-term investment theme .

The focus of attention under this trend is :1) The United States 1.2 Trillion dollar infrastructure plan , The focus is on improving transportation in the United States , Construction companies will benefit .2) The EU plans to classify nuclear energy and natural gas as “ Transitional fuel ”, This will increase new global investment in both energy sources .3) The popularity of electric vehicles in the global automobile market is faster than expected , Big cities need to speed up the construction of public and private electric vehicle charging infrastructure .4). With 5G Technology continues to spread , It is expected that the upgrade cycle will not only be 3G and 4G Need more time , And service providers and communication tower companies also need to bear higher capital expenditure .

infrastructure : The super trend of filling the gap is mainly reflected in transportation 、 Energy and water resources 、 Smart city 、 Telecommunications infrastructure .

Transportation :2022 Global travel restrictions were relaxed in , Travel restrictions and home office regulations have less impact on toll road and airport operators , Cargo ships affected by the epidemic 、 The supply chain bottleneck of railway transport operators is expected to be alleviated ; Policymakers have paved the way for years of prosperity in transport infrastructure .2022 In, construction and materials companies will benefit from national policy-making , Sustainable materials in the transportation industry will become the primary theme of new infrastructure development .

Energy and water resources : First, nuclear energy and natural gas have become green energy . The European Commission issued a formal proposal , It is proposed to classify nuclear energy and natural gas as “ Transition fuel ”, This will have a global impact on new investments in both energy sources . According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Most of the new nuclear power installed capacity will come from China , But the future 30 During the year , Europe may have the second largest capacity growth , The installed capacity of nuclear power will increase to 1000 Gigawatts or more , Ahead of the United States and Russia ( Each about 500 Gigawatt )

Smart city : The investment opportunity comes from the improvement of urban charging facilities in the United States :1.2 About... Has been allocated in the trillion dollar infrastructure programme 110 Billion dollars , Used in 2030 New... Years ago 50 Ten thousand electric vehicle charging stations .

Telecommunications infrastructure : Telecommunications infrastructure assets ( Telecommunications towers and data centers ) It provides higher than average growth opportunities for defensive investment . These assets will sign long-term recurring contracts with telecom operators . Besides , As the rental rate is pre agreed , And usually include inflation index or fixed rent increase clause , Therefore, such assets can provide a certain degree of inflation protection .5G The upgrade cycle not only lasts longer , Service providers and communication tower companies need to pay higher capital expenditure . New applications that consume more capacity, such as augmented reality and virtual reality , Will ascend 5G Incremental use of wireless networks . The expected growth in wireless mobile data usage will drive the demand for investment in wireless telecommunications infrastructure , The investment in wireless telecommunications infrastructure is the main growth driver of Telecom Tower and data center business .

Technology : Based on human service

Technology stocks 2021 year 11 Price correction starts in January , It reflects the general environment of rising interest rates , And the fact that the ultra-high growth rate during the epidemic is likely to be unsustainable . In the emerging digital world ( The meta universe ) In the context of emerging and creating new business opportunities , New catalytic factors “ Technology is based on serving mankind ” Super trend moves forward . With the increasing attention of consumers , Data privacy and protection is another growing area . Under this trend , People will enhance the customer experience 、 A safe and convenient way , Constantly adjust the balance between real life and digital platform activities .

The focus of attention under this trend is :1) Software that supports the transition of enterprise networks to cloud computing 、IT Service and platform companies , And companies that provide network security and industry automation processes .2) Yes, it helps to accelerate virtual reality (VR) And augmented reality (AR) Widely used 5G The Internet / Companies that invest heavily in equipment promotion , And by VR/AR Improve efficiency with the application of , So as to empower the metauniverse ;3) A provider of AI solutions and services for healthcare and education .4) Companies that focus on industrial automation solutions and collaborative robot manufacturing ; Quantum technology suppliers .5) The use of digital technology in the healthcare industry 、 Robots and big data analysis to improve in diagnosis 、 Treatment 、 Sequence 、mRNA technology 、 A company with executive power in nursing services .

Technology : The super trend based on human services is mainly reflected in digitization 、 Virtual reality 、 Artificial intelligence 、 Industry 4.0、 Health Technology .

Digitization : Remote work 、 Video collaboration 、 Online shopping 、 Virtual doctor visits , Digital trends such as using augmented reality based recommendations to provide remote maintenance services for machines have gained considerable momentum during the epidemic . Cloud computing investment is one of the areas that accelerated growth during the epidemic ; Another potential growth source of digital investment theme is the investment in the meta universe based on digital ledger Technology , It helps to improve the understanding of IT infrastructure 、 processing capacity 、 advertisement 、 The need for digital payments and social media , The company may be able to adapt to these new business advantages ; Consumers and businesses increasingly value data privacy , Give Way “ a farewell cookies Time ” Become another focus in the digital trend . Data collection 、 Management and analysis are entering a new dimension , Therefore, participants in this field ( Mainly in the software industry ) Will usher in years of long-term growth .

Virtual reality : The rapid rise of the yuan universe is reflected in more and more non homogenous token transactions , Keep the demand for high-quality content growing , Help the company attract more people in this virtual world where people are more and more willing to transfer some real-life activities to it Many guests Household . Although it is still in its early stage , But the meta universe may still be virtual reality (VR) And augmented reality (AR) Extension of , At the same time, it has some characteristics of games and e-commerce .

Artificial intelligence : The epidemic of the past two years is digital technology ( Especially artificial intelligence (AI)、 Machine learning and data analysis ) The catalyst . Building a strong AI capability requires a lot of investment 、 AI talent and computing power , There is still huge room for growth in the future . according to Gartner forecast , This opportunity will make 2022 In, the global AI software revenue expanded 21%, achieve 625 Billion dollars , Growth comes from driverless cars 、 Software requirements in the fields of virtual assistant and knowledge management .

Supply Chain Intelligence : The COVID-19 has severely damaged the supply chain . Realize the transformation to intelligent supply chain , Enterprises need to adopt, including big data analysis 、 New technologies including cloud computing or the Internet of things , And provide information about consumers 、 More accurate predictions of employee and business partner behavior ;3D Digital separation ( A virtual model used to accurately reflect the real object ) The use of is increasing , Still further develop immersive collaboration 、 Interactive 3D Shopping ability 、 Strong growth drivers for simulation and robotics or real-time asset operations ; In addition, during the epidemic “ A wave of resignations ” It also benefits the automation and robotics industry .

Health Technology : Enter the era of holograms , The diagnostic and therapeutic use of providing more personalized medical care is a new field of wearable devices . according to Estimation , The global wearable medical device market will start from 2021 Year of 102.8 Up to $100 million 2025 Year of 243.8 Billion dollars . Telemedicine is another important aspect of the growth of health technology drive , Including surgical robots and drug development using artificial intelligence .

Silver economy : Grasp the investment opportunities of population aging

Credit Suisse expects the super trend of silver economy to be , To 2050 In, the global elderly population reached 20 More than hundred million . This shift will create demand , It also brings challenges , Need to be in health care 、 insurance 、 Seeking innovative solutions in the consumer and real estate markets .

Under this trend, the focus can be :1) adopt RNA Innovative products such as therapies or antibody drug complexes are biopharmaceuticals to solve the diseases of the elderly 、 Medical technology and Life Sciences .2) Well managed pension housing providers and operators 、 Managed care institutions , And telemedicine operators who guide patients to the most effective point of care .3) Medical and life insurance companies with strong pricing power 、 Private financial advisers and asset management companies .4) Consumer goods companies that focus on the basic and special needs of older consumers , Such as tourism and beauty products companies , Manufacturers of prescription or hearing aids .

In the silver economy : In the super trend of seizing investment opportunities of population aging , Investment opportunities that can be grasped are reflected in treatment and equipment 、 Care and facilities 、 Medical and life insurance , And the choices of older consumers .

Opportunities for treatment and equipment manufacturers : In the long run , Health care is still the most far-reaching industry affected by population aging , What needs to be solved in the next few years is that patients miss the physical examination and pre diagnosis due to the epidemic 、 The deterioration caused by diagnosis and delayed care , This has a corresponding impact on treatment and medical device manufacturers .

The incidence rate of many chronic diseases increases with age , And there are often complications . The industry is expected to make a breakthrough in the treatment of diseases with major unmet needs , Help maintain innovation and development in the next few years . But the other side of innovation is the cost , According to historical development , It is expected that health care costs will continue to be higher than GDP (GDP) Hundreds of basis points of growth , Technology will prevent 、( In the early ) Diagnosis and treatment play an increasingly important role in controlling costs . Credit Suisse suggests paying attention to the past that has demonstrated innovation strength or involved in the above technologies and / Or companies with cost leadership in their respective regional markets .

Opportunities for care and facilities : Mainly in the future choice of the elderly . Today's elderly need special care programs and facilities , Builders and operators of professional pension housing concepts will play a key role in meeting these needs . Telemedicine has been accepted by patients and medical providers , Expand its service supply from emergency care to chronic care , Can bring considerable value proposition , Thus opening up a larger market . The shortage of nurses in nursing brings challenges and opportunities to private health care providers and professional companies .

Medical and life insurance opportunities :IMF, The epidemic may force more people to retire early , So as to reduce their pension level , And increase the risk of poverty among the elderly , At the same time, the epidemic will also impact the pension system structurally : Disability claims may increase , However, the capital pool may be affected by the shrinking wage base and / Or temporarily reduce the contribution rate and face a dilemma , At the same time, the turmoil in the financial market may affect the balance sheet position of pension funds . Last , Extensive state support measures during the epidemic may put further pressure on public finances , In the long run , Will affect the state funded or government guaranteed pension system . These trends indicate a growing demand for private sector pension solutions for the elderly . At the same time, the epidemic has improved people's general understanding of health risks , Thus, the increase has promoted the growth of global life insurance premiums , expect 2022 Years and 2023 It will grow by... Respectively 2.9% and 2.7%, Higher than the historical trend . Credit Suisse believes that insurance companies still have room for further expansion in markets with low penetration , Especially through online distribution .

Opportunities for older consumers to choose : Nowadays, the elderly are a strong consumer group , High consumption capacity . With the temporary escape from the epidemic , Travel and experience consumption are returning . In addition, the elderly invest in the remaining health care projects, that is, they are usually paid by the patients themselves ( for example , Hearing aids or dental implants ) Emerging markets also deserve attention .

The values of millennials :Z Generation and Y generation

Supply chain and consumption trends have not returned to normal after the new crown crisis , In the short term, it will cause turbulence in the consumption environment . However ,“ The values of millennials ” The long-term trend in the super trend is still solid .

The focus of attention under this trend is :1) Subvert shopping 、 advertisement 、 Global digital platform for media and Finance .2) Active in happiness 、 Health and leisure industry , Companies with outstanding business performance in emerging markets ( For example, global brands 、 Chinese domestic brands ).3) Companies that implement the environmental attitude of millennials ( For example, sustainable food 、 Clean energy and responsible consumption and production ).

The super trend of millennial values is reflected in the digital natives , And to happiness 、 Health and leisure 、 Environmental attitudes .

Digital primordial : Millennials are turning to meta cosmic life . Millennials' love of all digital things will continue to create new consumption trends . Many observers predict , The size and profitability of yuancosmos will be no less than that of the Internet itself . At this stage, the game platform has the most similarities with the metauniverse . Augmented reality (AR) And virtual reality (VR) Equipment and other hardware need to be upgraded , So as to improve the lens and display quality , Equipment sensitivity and processing speed , At the same time, we also need to increase the network data rate and shorten the delay time . Credit Suisse expects , To 2025 year ,AR/VR The unit sales volume of headwear equipment will reach 4200 Ten thousand units ( Income reaches 126 Billion dollars ),2020-2025 The annual compound growth of income (CAGR) by 36%.

happy 、 Health and leisure : It is mainly reflected in the fact that the COVID-19 and other factors urge the millennials to pay more and more attention to the pursuit of healthy life and health care . The epidemic has accelerated outdoor activities 、 Positive lifestyle and development in the field of casual clothing . Sportswear categories are improving . The most popular sports in China are running and basketball , Interest in other sports , Including skiing 、 Tennis 、 Golf and hiking , It is expected to pick up . Chinese millennials are becoming more and more proud of Chinese brands , Local sporting goods brands may become the biggest beneficiaries of sports . Functional food is another area with strong growth . In addition to providing nutrition and energy , These foods are usually sold with ingredients that contain targeted health benefits , Such as reducing the risk of illness . Supported by consumers' awareness of the benefits of healthy eating and innovative and positive regulations , The global functional food and beverage market is expected to record double-digit growth in the next decade .

Investment opportunities for environmental attitudes Embrace a more sustainable lifestyle . Credit Suisse Research Institute (CSRI) Recent surveys in developed and emerging markets show that , The younger generation is still very concerned about environmental issues , And actively promote change , Embrace a more sustainable lifestyle .2020 In, the younger generation has accounted for... Of global consumer spending 48%, Credit Suisse estimates that ,2040 The annual proportion will rise to 68%. The survey shows that , Young consumers say they are likely to invest in residential solar panels and energy-saving technologies ( Insulation equipment ), And plan to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles . In response to animal welfare 、 Important issues of concern to millennials, such as carbon reduction and global sustainable food , Now there is a kind of “ Cultivated meat ” Innovative solutions . The first initial public offerings in this field are expected to take place in the near future .

Climate change, : Economic carbon reduction

In the short term , The recent rise in energy prices will become a catalyst for the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for power generation and transportation . Accounting for global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)20% The above global food system , Is also reducing its carbon footprint .

Under this trend, the focus can be :1) Leading power generation companies , And power storage technology providers ; Companies that speed up building efficiency to reduce energy consumption .2) Can overcome problems , While reducing greenhouse gas emissions , Energy companies that maintain dividend yields ; Carbon capture technology companies and companies involved in increasing the capacity of blue hydrogen and green hydrogen .3) Transportation companies with a firm commitment to a green future ; Provide solutions to reduce the environmental footprint ( For example, electric cars 、 Sustainable fuels 、 Hydrogen or other technologies ) Vehicle manufacturers .4) Provide technology to improve sustainable food production ( For example, precision agriculture 、 Vertical farming technology 、 Gene editor 、 Waste management and reducing food waste ) The company ; Meat Processors with low greenhouse gas emissions and plant-based food providers .

Climate change, : The super trend of economic carbon reduction is mainly reflected in power efficiency 、 Green energy transformation 、 Sustainable transportation 、 Agriculture and food .

In terms of power efficiency : The key words are nuclear energy . Next three years , The expansion of renewable energy capacity is expected to absorb about 90% Global demand for electricity is growing . The European Union (EU) Released a new green label system , To avoid the financial industry “ Bleach green ”(greenwashing) practice . It is worth noting that , The EU proposes to treat nuclear power and some forms of natural gas as “ green ” Economic activity , This is expected to pave the way for investment in new nuclear power plants and natural gas . More efficient ( And reduce ) electricity , Is another way to reduce carbon emissions , There is great potential to improve the energy efficiency of buildings , for example , Improve insulation performance ( For example, windows during construction )、 Improve heating and cooling systems 、 Measures such as renovation works and smart energy use .

Green energy transformation : The key words are transition gas . The oil and gas industry needs to be transformed into a more carbon efficient industry , There are two key ways to reduce carbon : With LNG (LNG) Replace heavier fuel ; And gradually expand carbon capture facilities . Before cost-effective power storage solutions such as large battery energy storage facilities and green hydrogen become feasible , Natural gas is still an important transitional fuel for global power generation . The European Union classification lists some natural gas as “ green ” Economic activity . China's power generation industry is also strengthening the shift from coal-fired to gas-fired power generation , This will keep the demand for LNG strong in the coming decades . Again , In Europe and America , Because it takes years to build a new nuclear power plant , Natural gas is still the preferred transition fuel for the next decade . Carbon capture technology remains a key element of energy transformation to achieve global climate goals .

Sustainable transportation : Mainly reflected in the rise of electric vehicles . Credit Suisse currently expects , To 2030 year , Electric cars ( Including battery electric vehicles (BEV) Plug in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)) The share of annual car sales will reach 45%. At present, the focus of debate around the next generation mobile transformation , Is to ensure the supply of . This means investing not only in electric vehicle assembly capacity , We also need to invest in battery manufacturing 、 Battery pack assembly and acquisition of raw materials and electronic components . Automotive suppliers , Watch those technology neutral 、 Suppliers who can benefit from the development of electric vehicles .

In addition to the recent supply bottleneck , The main resistance faced by electric vehicle manufacturers is rising commodity prices , Especially lithium , This leads to a sharp rise in the cost of battery materials . As the supply of lithium is expected to remain scarce , Car companies are switching to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) The battery ( At present, it is only widely used in China ).LFP The energy density of the model is low , The mileage will be reduced 20%-25%, But it's relatively safe , And the price is lower 10% to 15%, This will help drive the demand for medium and low-end electric vehicles . Besides , If the innovative technology being developed can successfully improve LFP The energy density of , Is expected to further promote LFP Use . Last , Compared with a tighter nickel supply , A large supply of iron and easier access to LFP Battery capacity will help automotive OEMs expand rapidly LFP The size of the battery . Credit Suisse expects , To 2025 year , China's LFP The market share will rise to 67%(2020 Years for 38%), To 2025 year , The global ( Except for China )LFP The market share will increase to 15%(2020 Years for 0%).

2021 end of the year ,IEA Submitted a follow-up report on international shipping ,2020 year , International shipping accounts for... Of global energy related CO2 emissions 2% about , Did not make a substantial contribution to achieving the zero emission target . For those with emerging technologies Walker Come on , This is a good opportunity to optimize energy use in the industry , For example, sustainable fuel or more efficient 、 Cleaner shipping technology .

Agriculture and food : The key words are alternative meat . Based on the continuous growth of population and agriculture, it accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions , Mankind urgently needs a sustainable global food system . Switch to a plant-based diet , Not only help reduce greenhouse gas emissions , It can also have a positive impact on malnutrition and obesity .2020 year , Global vegetable meat accounts for only... Of total meat sales 0.3%(1.4 Trillions of dollars ), The proportion of vegetable dairy products in the whole market is 4.5%(0.5 Trillions of dollars ) However , The sales of vegetable milk have increased to... Of the total sales of milk 15%. If the sales growth and penetration of vegetable meat are compared with more mature vegetable milk products , The potential market is huge . Even considering the technical constraints of R & D and the resistance of some consumers , Credit Suisse estimated that 2030 year , The size of the alternative meat market in the United States is expected to reach 160 Billion dollars , Equivalent to the size of the traditional meat industry in the United States (2200 Billion dollars ) Of 7%. The application of intelligent agricultural technology helps to optimize the efficiency per square meter of land ( In terms of population growth and greenhouse gas emissions ), Sustainable food solution systems also pave the way for new sustainable agricultural technologies such as vertical agriculture , Sustainable packaging 、 Optimized waste management systems and a general reduction in food waste will also help address the climate change challenges facing agriculture .

( This article is only for readers' reference , It does not constitute an offer or an investment 、 accounting 、 Legal or tax advice .)

This article is from WeChat official account. “ Barron weekly ”(ID:barronschina), author : Ying Fang Huang , edit : Wu Haishan ,36 Krypton authorized release .

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