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36 krypton read "it is estimated that 80% of the scenes in the book may become a reality in 20 years"

2022-05-07 21:27:4336kr

This article excerpts from 《AI Future progressive 》, author : Li Kaifu 、 Chen Huafan ,36 Krypton authorized release .

“ at present ,AI The energy storage has been completed , It is about to usher in a new turning point .”

“ I think it's in 20 After year , 80% of the scenes in the book may become a reality .”

lately , A new book by Li Kaifu, a famous AI expert 《AI Future progressive 》 Launched by Zhejiang People's Publishing House . What is different from the past is , This time, , He joined hands with science fiction writer Chen chuanfan , In the book “ Technology + Science fiction ” A new way of telling , It depicts 20 Years later, the human world under the influence of artificial intelligence and other technologies .

The English version of the book 2021 year 9 The month is published abroad , As soon as it is published “AI future ” Push the topic upsurge again , He was selected in that year 《 Wall Street journal 》《 Huasheng Dayton post 》《 The financial times 》2021 Book of the year , Pushed by many professionals at home and abroad .

Turing award winner 、 Meta universe ( facebook ) Yang Likun, chief AI scientist, commented after reading the book :“ Only those with courage and insight dare to look forward to the future of artificial intelligence . Pioneers in science and technology and science fiction writers with insight into the future work together to create this groundbreaking book , Made a bold and far-reaching prediction on the urgent issue of how science and technology will change human life in the future .

《 Trisomy 》 author 、 Hugo Award winner Liu Cixin thinks :“ This book uses an unprecedented multi perspective across the text , Looking forward to the future of artificial intelligence construction , Let's grasp the future development trend rationally while , Touch the texture and temperature of the future emotionally . Vivid sci-fi imagination is perfectly combined with rigorous and in-depth technical discussion , Give Way This book is not only from the perspective of science fiction, but also from the perspective of technological reality , Have unparalleled charm .

With AI Continuous iteration and development of technology ,

Where will the future of mankind lead ?

stay 《AI Future progressive 》 In a Book ,10 A fascinating short story , It shows a series of eye opening future scenes . While bringing amazing experience to readers , The science and technology review after each story makes people think infinitely .

In the book , Kai Fu Li predicted ,AI Will greatly promote the development of human society , Through many practical application scenarios, it brings great surprises to mankind :

First ,AI Will create unprecedented value for society . According to the prediction of PWC, the world's top accounting firm , To 2030 year ,AI Will create 15.7 Trillions of dollars in economic value , This will directly contribute to the eradication of poverty and hunger .

secondly ,AI It will also be through efficient computing , Take over some repetitive work , Liberate mankind from busy and heavy daily work , Let mankind save the most precious time and resources , To do more exciting 、 Challenging work .

Last , Human beings will be with AI Achieve man-machine cooperation ,AI Responsible for quantitative analysis 、 Result optimization and repetitive work , Human beings contribute their creativity according to their strengths 、 Strategic thinking 、 Complex skills 、 Passion and love . In this way , Human productivity will increase significantly , And everyone has the opportunity to maximize their potential .

“AI The time has come . In front of us , Opportunities and challenges coexist . Such as AI How to coexist with human characteristics , We need to explore and think deeply .”

When thinking about these topics , Li Kaifu hopes to make people understand more intuitively AI The human world of the times . And in the thorough answer “AI What will the future of the times be like ” When it comes to this , He believes that some specific story cases are also needed , In this way, we can do better Surface The exhibition of .

“ I think it's in 20 After year ,

80% of the scenes in the book may become a reality ”

4 Years ago , Kai-fu lee in 《AI· future 》 Most of the predictions made in have become a reality . now , He hopes that this new book will take a more forward-looking look at AI The future of .

stay 《AI Future progressive 》 In the preface to , Li Kaifu talked about : The original intention of creating this book , In a frank way 、 objective 、 In a constructive way , Describe what might happen at the other end of the time tunnel AI Of “ True story ”. The ideas in the book are not only based on the existing AI Based on the technical analysis , Also considered in the future 20 New technologies that are expected to appear or will be born within this year .

“ Deep learning ” What's the problem ?

In the education 、 Medical care 、 Consumption and other fields ,AI What new applications will there be ?

What is the metauniverse ? When will real autopilot appear ?

Will autonomous weapons become the greatest threat to human survival ?

What kind of work is not easy to be AI replace ?

Who is worthy of our trust and qualified to store all our data ?

After the age of abundance , Would be Singularity era Do you ?

AI Will your story have a happy ending ……

The story in the book outlines 2042 The face of the world in .“ I think it's in 20 After year , 80% of the scenes in the book may become a reality , Of course , It does not rule out that some parts are overestimated or underestimated , But please believe that , I think about the future with a responsible attitude AI All the possibilities of the times .” Li Kaifu said .

In the past 40 In the year , He is deeply involved in Apple 、 Microsoft and Google AI Technical research and product development , Today, it manages technology investment funds with a total size of billions of dollars . He knows very well how to turn an academic paper into a universally applicable product , At the same time, he has rich experience in market operation .

He analyzed in the book : at present , Among all enterprises in various industries , Only less than 10% Enterprise application of AI technology , It needs to be used more AI Technology empowers innovation . There are still many opportunities ahead for us to grasp together . Even if we're not sure about the future AI Will there be another major technological breakthrough in the field of deep learning , But it's clear that ,AI Up to now , It has had a far-reaching impact on human society . He believes that , He told the 20 After year AI The prophecy of the times will come true , And this book is the testimony that he has made such prophecies .

new 、 A unique way of telling :

once “ Technology + Science fiction ” Collision

《AI Future progressive 》 It is also a unique creative experiment .

In Li Kaifu's opinion , There should be no threshold for reading . To make this relevant AI Your story is more attractive , Let more people really understand AI future , He specially found his colleague Chen luofan when he was at Google —— Now a science fiction writer , And won the Chinese science fiction Galaxy Award for many times 、 Global Chinese science fiction Nebula award and other awards , Hope that through the cooperation of both sides , Help people More intuitive understanding of the future 20 The development trend of artificial intelligence and other science and technology in , Think more deeply about the impact of the landing of science and technology on people and human society .

The two authors agree that , expectation 20 Technology that has a chance to become a reality within the year , Embed it in a fascinating story , It's a challenging but meaningful writing attempt . This combination of left and right brain , A form of CO creation that breaks through the barriers between liberal arts students and science students , It is also extremely novel on a global scale .

In the book , They set the timeline of the story to 2042 year , Don't move in an instant 、 Killing robot 、 Alien aliens and other commonly used science fiction plots to win the attention of readers , Instead, it tries a unique way to help readers open AI The journey of the future .

In the process of creation , be responsible for “ science ” Li Kaifu first depicts a picture of “ Technical blueprint ”, Speculate when some technologies will mature , Integrate AI How long does the improvement iteration take , It is difficult and phased to implement the application in all walks of life , Technical challenges... And then face the possibility of landing 、 Corresponding regulations and policies , And the conflicts that may accompany these technologies 、 Social phenomena such as threats and difficulties .

be responsible for “ Science fiction ” Part of Chen Chuang fan is based on Li Kaifu's rational analysis framework , Design 、 Build fictional characters related to technical analysis 、 Scenes and plots . At the end of every chapter of science fiction , Li Kaifu will also make a thematic technical interpretation of the scientific and technological content of this chapter , It also makes an in-depth discussion on the transformation of human society caused by the theme technology in this chapter , Put forward opinions .

Therefore visible , This book does not weaken the content of science and technology because of the integration of science fiction . But at the same time ,“ This book is still for non-technical readers , Even readers who don't have any basis in computer theory , Can also easily read ”, Li Kaifu said :“ As long as you are curious about the future , Yes AI And the wave of technology such as the meta universe , The story in the book will resonate with you .”

face AI Great potential , Some people may embrace it warmly , Some people may use it maliciously , Some people may choose to surrender in front of cold technology , Others may become the phoenix of bath fire after the baptism of Technology .

Satya, chairman and CEO of Microsoft · NADELLA wrote after reading this book :“ Chen Chuang fan's creative strength , Plus Li Kaifu's scientific and technological skills , Construct a curious and worrying AI The new world of the future . By reading this fascinating book , You can see when those cutting-edge technologies will 、 How to optimize and mature , Understand what they mean to mankind .

Title :《AI Future progressive 》 author : Li Kaifu Chen Huafan , Press. : Zhejiang People's Publishing House

Author's brief introduction

Li Kaifu

Doctor of computer science, Carnegie Mellon University . World famous AI experts 、 investors 、 best-selling author . He once served as global vice president and President of Greater China of Google , And worked at Microsoft 、 Apple and other companies hold important positions .2009 Innovation workshop was founded in , Committed to helping entrepreneurs grow and develop . Co chair of the artificial intelligence committee of the world economic forum , And be 《 Time 》 Selected by weekly as affecting the world 100 One of the people of the year . Publish Chinese bestsellers 10 Yu Ben . 、

Chen Huafan

Science fiction writer 、 The writers 、 translate 、 Curator . Vice president of China Association of popular science writers , Honorary president of the world Chinese Science Fiction Association . Won the nebula Award 、 Galaxy Award 、 Families, Fantasy Magic translation Award 、 Mao Dun Newcomer Award and other awards , In many European and American science fiction magazines, he is the first Chinese writer to publish his works . His works have been translated into 20 Many languages , including 《 Famine tide 》《 Life algorithm 》 etc. .

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