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This time is different. Be vigilant against dual nuclear impact
Source: Zhiben society
Author Yi Qinghe President of Zhiben Society
No secondary reprint is provided
In the near future , International exchange rate market “ Megaquake ”.
4 month 28 Japan , The yen fell below the US dollar 131, The drop in the day was 2%. The sharp fall of the yen exchange rate triggered a chain reaction , Non US dollar currencies fell sharply against the US dollar . The offshore RMB fell below... Against the US dollar 6.65 Gateway , set up 2020 year 11 A new low since ; The euro fell below... Against the dollar 1.05 Gateway , It is a new low in the past five years ; The pound fell below... Against the dollar 1.25 Gateway , by 2020 year 7 For the first time in months .ICE The dollar index rose to 103.71, Refresh 2017 year 1 Month high . But the next few days ,ICE The dollar index fell sharply again , Non US dollar currencies rebounded sharply .
Since the Fed raised interest rates in March , The focus of international investment banks on monetary policy mainly focuses on two aspects ： First, the sharp rise in international oil prices has reduced the international monetary status of the US dollar , The challenge to the Fed's interest rate hike ; The second is the appreciation of the US dollar against Turkey 、 The exchange rate and debt markets of emerging countries such as Argentina pose a threat .
however , The sharp fall of the yen against the US dollar is sending a strong warning . It warns that we should not just focus on the United States and emerging countries , But all countries outside the United States ; The challenge of international crude oil faced by the US dollar , The same applies to non US dollar currencies , The challenge of the latter may be more serious .
In other words , Few people realize , Countries outside the United States may suffer “ Dual core ” impact ： First, the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve promotes the rise of the dollar index and poses a threat to the financial market , Especially countries with high debt ratio and still adhering to loose policies ; Second, the rise in international crude oil prices also poses a threat to the financial market , Especially energy 、 Countries with low self-sufficiency in food and Commodities .
The most vigilant thing is ,“ Dual core ” The impact is mutually reinforcing , While actively chasing the US dollar, domestic capital is forced to chase international crude oil and grain , Have to abandon their currencies on a larger scale , And then impact the exchange rate 、 Debt 、 negotiable securities 、 Real estate and all financial markets .
In every dollar tightening cycle in the past , Emerging countries will experience a certain degree of financial turmoil , but “ This time it's different ”. High dependence on foreign energy 、 Japan, which has maintained loose policy for a long time , Europe is in the midst of an energy crisis , as well as “ Special file ” Emerging countries , It will be an encounter “ Dual core ” The dangerous economy of shock .
Local time 5 month 4 On the afternoon of Sunday , The Fed's interest rate meeting decided to raise interest rates 50 BPS , Increase the federal funds rate range to 0.75% To 1%. This is the Federal Reserve 22 Raising interest rates for the first time in years 0.5%. meanwhile , The Federal Reserve announced 6 The month begins to shrink , Decrease in the first three months 475 $billion in assets and liabilities , Three months later , Will reduce... Per month 950 Billion dollars . After the news , US stocks, gold and crude oil rose , The dollar index plunged .
that , In the general trend of monetary tightening and energy （ food ） Under the attack of crisis , Where is the macro-economy going ？“ Dual core ” Which countries are more threatened by the impact ？
The logic of this paper is
One 、 The battle of the yen
Two 、 The plight of the euro
3、 ... and 、 Beyond the dollar
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01PART The battle of the yen
Since the Russian Ukrainian war , The international exchange rate market bears the brunt of the yen . Why is that ？
The fuse of this round of sharp decline in non US dollar exchange rate points to the Bank of Japan .4 month 28 Japan , The Bank of Japan said , The benchmark interest rate will be maintained at -0.1% unchanged , At the same time, buy unlimited bonds at a fixed interest rate on weekdays , To defend 10 The yield of one-year daily bonds 0.25% Target upper limit of . This means that the Bank of Japan is committed to the loose policy of controlling the yield curve , It will further deviate from the possible accelerated tightening policy of the Federal Reserve . The market is moving , The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar quickly fell below 131, Set a near 20 Year low .
The Bank of Japan is the pioneer and creator of quantitative easing . 1990s , The Japanese economy has been hit by two financial crises , The Bank of Japan to save the economy , Cut the overnight bank lending rate to zero , Take the lead in entering the era of zero interest rate .2001 The Internet foam crisis hit Japan again , The scale of stock assets invested by Japanese commercial banks has shrunk significantly , Capital adequacy ratio from 2000 At the end of 11.1% Down to 2002 At the end of 9.6%. The Bank of Japan to save commercial banks , Start quantitative easing （QE）, Become the first central bank to launch quantitative easing on a large scale . This has impacted the exchange rate market ,2002 year 4 month , The yen fell below the US dollar 130 mark .
2007 year , The Bank of Japan tried to exit quantitative easing , But the next year, it encountered the world financial crisis . thereafter , The world's major central banks have opened the era of super easing . The Bank of Japan has explored double easing （QEE）, Purchase Nikkei stock index ETF, Also implement negative interest rates （NIRP）, Japan took the lead in entering the era of negative interest rates . from 2009 Year to 2011 During the year , As the major central banks have implemented easing policies , The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has not depreciated, but has appreciated , Price maintained at 79-93 Between .
2012 Year begins , Abe promoted during his second term “ Abenomics ”, That is to promote the depreciation of the yen through monetary easing policy to promote its export growth . Abe's move aims to finance the Japanese government , To alleviate the pressure of huge pension expenditure caused by population aging . The Bank of Japan aims at controlling the yield curve to reduce the government's financing cost . This has led to a rapid increase in the size of Japanese government debt , To 2019 In, the total amount of government debt reached 1103.35 Trillions of yen , Government debt accounts for GDP Up to 238%, The highest in the world . meanwhile , The yen continued to fall against the US dollar , from 2012 At the beginning of the year 75 Continued to depreciate to the present 131, Devaluation of more than 70%.
Now , The Bank of Japan from “ Lender of last resort ” Reduced to “ The last buyer ”. The Bank of Japan has become the biggest creditor of the Japanese government , The proportion of national debt in total assets has risen to 85% about ; It has become the largest shareholder of Japan's commercial bank and stock market , It's about 40% One of the top ten shareholders of Japanese Listed Companies .
Since this year, the yen has been “ Big crash ”, At least 50 The longest consecutive decline in years , The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell close to 13%; In March alone, the depreciation against the US dollar reached 7.9%, Become G10 The worst performing currency against the US dollar .
Two of these factors are superimposed ： One is the accelerated deviation between the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve ; Second, the rise in international crude oil prices weakened the yen .
The Bank of Japan insists on controlling the yield curve , The yield on Japan's 10-year Treasury bond is only 0.1%-0.2%; And after the Fed took tightening action , U.S. 10-year Treasury yields from 1 The beginning of the month 1.5% Rapidly rising to the current 2.9% near . In just four months , The yield spread of ten-year Treasury bonds between the United States and Japan has increased from 140BP Expand to 270 individual BP. The US Japan interest rate spread is highly correlated with the trend of the yen against the US dollar , It is an important indicator of the exchange rate market . The interest rate spread between the United States and Japan has expanded rapidly , Exacerbate capital outflows , The depreciation of the yen accelerated .
and “ This time it's different ” The real factor is the world energy crisis . Japan is a country with an extreme shortage of energy , Its dependence on foreign energy is as high as 88%. The two world oil crises in the 1970s impacted the Japanese economy , Caused inflation . however ,1979 The sharp rise in energy prices caused by the oil crisis in , stay 1982 By former Fed chairman Paul · Volcker led forced dollar “ tame ”. The Fed is highly tightening , The dollar has appreciated significantly , Oil and commodity prices fell rapidly . In this battle between the dollar and oil “ Value war ” in , Japan took the boat of the dollar and became the winner , And Mexico, which used to rely on resource exports 、 Latin American countries such as Brazil have become losers .
however , This time the situation may be different . The war between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European and American world , Triggered the world energy crisis . Now , The war continues , The lifting of sanctions is far away . The Federal Reserve this March 、 Interest rates were raised continuously in May , June shrink table , But international crude oil prices “ completely indifferent ”, By the end of 5 month 5 Japan ,WTI US crude oil prices remain at 107 dollar / bucket . If war and sanctions continue , The Fed is accelerating austerity , But still can't “ tame ” Energy prices , Then the global money market will face a severe impact . This time when the dollar Noah's Ark turned into a canoe , Japan 、 Europe will face the impact of international energy prices . Capital markets , Chasing dollars , The other side is chasing oil , Sell more local currency .
Bad is , The rise in oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar may reinforce each other , Join forces to impact those asset foam 、 Countries with high debt ratio and high external dependence on energy .
Original , The Fed is tightening , The Bank of Japan is loose , The yen continued to fall against the US dollar ; Superimposed on the rise in oil prices , Japan needs to exchange more dollars to import oil ; And exchange for more dollars , The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar continued to fall , Further reduce the external purchasing power of the yen ; Have to sell more yen , To chase dollars and oil ……
5 month 4 Japan , Japan's minister of economy and industry, Koichi Morida, said at a press conference that , Limited resources in Japan , It is difficult to keep pace with the EU immediately , There will be no ban on oil imports from Russia .
in addition , Russia Ukraine war 、 Economic sanctions and rising energy prices , Driving up global food prices . The total wheat exports of Russia and Ukraine account for... Of the total wheat exports of the world 29%, The total corn exports of the two countries account for... Of the global share 19%, Sunflower oil exports account for... Of the global share 80％. These important grain production and export , Both suffered from war and sanctions . meanwhile , Rising oil and gas prices have led to higher transport prices and fertilizer prices , Further pushing up global food prices .
The war and energy crisis triggered the food crisis . actually , A month after Russia invaded Ukraine , The price of wheat has gone up 36%. The latest issue of the World Bank 《 Commodity market outlook 》 Report forecast , Wheat prices will rise this year 40% above , The nominal price has reached an all-time high . and , Expect to 2024 At the end of the year, global food prices remained at an all-time high .
This is for countries with insufficient food self-sufficiency , Especially countries that rely on Russian and Ukrainian food , Is a huge threat . Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%, Japan has to pay more dollars to increase food imports in response to the crisis . such as , Japanese classic food buckwheat noodles , Its raw material buckwheat is imported from Russia , At present, prices are rising due to war factors .
In the short term , Import and export trade and exchange rate interact , But in the long run , Import and export trade affects the trend of exchange rate . from 1981 Year to 2010 year , Japan maintains a long-term surplus with foreign countries ; The dollar against the yen from 1982 year 11 Of the month 277 Appreciation to 2011 year 11 Of the month 75. But from 2011 Year to 2021 Only three years is a surplus , The deficit in some years is relatively large . These ten years , The yen has also entered the downward channel . Now , International Energy 、 Import prices of grain and bulk commodities have risen , Will increase Japan's external deficit , Further reduce the external purchasing power of the yen , Greater impact on the yen exchange rate . meanwhile , Rising import prices raise domestic prices , Rising prices further worsen the yen exchange rate .
02PART The plight of the euro
After the yen, it is the European currency that depreciates greatly .3 month 1 solstice 4 month 29 Japan , The devaluation of the pound 6.5%, Devaluation of the euro 5.8%, The Danish Krona depreciated 5.9%, The Swiss Franc depreciated 5.4%, The Norwegian Krona depreciated 5.1%.
Similar to the yen , The European currency also suffered a dual nuclear shock , It's just that the focus is different . The challenge of the European currency comes more from war , Not the initiative of the European Central Bank . The Russian Ukrainian war triggered the European energy crisis , Then it evolved into “ Energy war ”.
The euro is the second largest “ The currency of the world ”, The international reserve market accounts for about 20%, The proportion of international payment is about 35%. The euro is the only currency that can influence the trend of the dollar index , But in this round of exchange rate collapse , The euro is ahead . Over the past decade , The ECB is more cautious and restrained than the Fed . however , In Christina · Lagarde has been too dovish as President . Last quarter , The Fed began to withdraw from easing , The operation of the European Central Bank is closer to that of the Bank of Japan , It is planned to continue easing until the end of this year . This provides conditions for the depreciation of the euro . last year , The euro depreciated against the dollar 6.9%, The decline was obvious in the second half of the year .
however , It was the Russian Ukrainian war that had a serious impact on the euro and European currencies . The Bank of England raised interest rates a little earlier than the Fed , But the pound has fallen more than the euro . Next, we focus on the challenges of the war and the energy crisis to the European currency .
The Russian Ukrainian war took place in Europe , The biggest geopolitical crisis in Europe since World War II . This undoubtedly drives more international capital to flow to the US market . what's more , Europe is a resource poor region , coal 、 oil 、 Natural gas is highly dependent on Russia . The import proportion of natural gas in Europe is 90%, Oil is 97%. among , Russian natural gas imports account for... Of EU natural gas imports 45%, Norway for 23%, The United States for 6%, Qatar is 5%. Russian crude oil imports account for... Of EU crude oil imports 27%, Norway for 8%, Kazakhstan is 8%, The United States for 8%.
After the war broke out , The United States 、 The British 、 The French 、 Germany has successively announced that it will gradually stop importing Russian oil .3 month 7 Japan , Netherlands TTF The price of natural gas futures hit a record in recent months 345 euro / The highest price ever in megawatt hours . however , Europe is determined to get rid of Russia's energy dependence . the second day , The European Commission issued 《 Europe is cheap 、 Security 、 Joint action on sustainable energy 》, Announce the implementation of the European energy independence strategy , stay 2030 Years ago, it got rid of its dependence on Russian energy imports .
Europe's main problem is natural gas .2021 Pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas imported from Europe to Russia in （LNG） The total is 1400 Billion cubic meters . Europe's problem is how to find such a huge alternative gas source .
The first is liquefied natural gas from the United States （LNG）.3 month 25 Japan , The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on ensuring energy security . According to the agreement , The United States will supply more to Europe this year 150 Billion cubic meters of natural gas , stay 2027 Helped Europe get rid of its energy dependence on Russia years ago . This scale is equivalent to replacing Russia's natural gas exports 10%.
The second is to increase Norway 、 Netherlands 、 The British 、 azerbaijan 、 Algeria 、 Natural gas imports from Qatar and Australia .
at present , Europe's natural gas production capacity has returned to pre epidemic levels , But the incremental space is limited . The increase in natural gas supply in North Africa is also limited , About 5%. Mainly by Qatar and Australia , The Australian government is committed to meeting the European demand for at least 20% Demand for natural gas .
Europe plans to reduce Russian gas imports by two-thirds next year , It's equivalent to reducing 1000 Billion cubic meters . In the short term , Neither of the above two channels can make up for this huge gap ： First, production capacity , The United States a year LNG only 1000 More than 100 million cubic meters ; The second is the cost problem ,LNG The cost of ship transportation is much higher than that of pipeline , There is not enough in the world LNG Transport ships to undertake such a huge transportation demand .
According to the Bruegel Institute , Suppose that Russia's natural gas supply is halved and the cost of importing other alternative gas sources increases 50%, So Europe 2022 We will pay for this in 250 An additional cost of € billion , The total import of natural gas will reach 3700 Billions of euros , by 2019 Year of 6 times . Only convert pipeline gas into LNG The short-term cost of reducing energy dependence on Russia may reach 1000 Billions of euros .
therefore , European energy independence can only change the energy consumption structure , Seek more alternative energy sources , There may be many coexisting routes ：
First, oil alternatives .
The world is rich in oil , The price is lower than natural gas , Strong substitutability , Europe can turn to the United States 、 The Middle East will increase imports . After the shale gas revolution , The United States has changed from an oil importer to an exporter . Now , The federal government is urging oil producers to increase production .2022 year 12 U.S. crude oil production is expected to be higher than 2 The monthly increase is more than 100 barrels / God . The scale of production increase is equivalent to that of Russian crude oil export 20%. in addition , Canada also announced an increase in 5% Our oil exports , To meet the oil demand of the EU .
Except North America , The Middle East is an important base for oil supply in Europe , Saudi Arabia 、 Qatar 、 The increase in production of the UAE can replace the increase in Russian crude oil exports 40%, Even more . OPEC （OPEC） Your attitude is critical , The organization has repeatedly rejected requests from the United States to increase production , Saudi Arabia's attitude is more tough .
The other two major oil producers, Iran and Venezuela , We are taking advantage of this opportunity to strengthen negotiations with the United States , It is expected to get rid of some sanctions and join the ranks of global oil supply . Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world , The proven reserves are close to 3900 Billion barrels . at present , The United States is negotiating oil trade with Venezuela . The United States has restarted negotiations on a nuclear agreement with Iran due to oil shortage , Once a nuclear agreement is reached , Iran may export oil at full power .
Europe plans to completely get rid of its dependence on Russian oil , If natural gas is replaced by oil , OPEC may be needed 、 The three major oil supply bases of Venezuela and Iran are working at the same time . But now these three attitudes are full of uncertainty .
Second, renewable energy alternatives .
Renewable energy has always been the direction of energy development in Europe . In this energy crisis , Renewable energy has failed to shoulder the responsibility , But it will not deny this direction , It will even be strengthened . The EU expects , Wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity to 2025 The year will double ,2030 Three times the current level in , Wind energy increased to 480 Givash , Solar energy increased to 420 Givash , To replace 1700 Billion cubic meters of natural gas demand . meanwhile , Accelerate the development of renewable natural gas , Plan to 2030 year , Biomass natural gas can be increased to... Every year 350 Billion cubic meters of production .
According to energy technology group Wärtsilä A new report from , If the development of renewable energy in Europe is doubled , Up to... Every year 80GW, to 2030 Renewable energy power generation will reach 61%, It can reduce the proportion of natural gas consumption by half , At the same time save 3230 Billion euros in energy costs .
besides , Europe may also solve the problem of energy shortage in other ways . The EU plans to improve energy efficiency , install 3000 Ten thousand new high-efficiency heat pumps , Reduce 350 Billion cubic meters of natural gas used . expect , The United States and Europe will increase financial subsidies for renewable energy and energy efficiency improvement , So as to accelerate the transformation of energy . however , Renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements are highly dependent on technological innovation , This is undoubtedly full of uncertainty .
Third, nuclear alternatives .
before , Nuclear energy is an important energy source to alleviate the energy shortage in Europe . Before the Fukushima nuclear power plant leak , Nuclear power accounts for a quarter of Germany's electricity supply . But then , Germany and Europe have shut down nuclear power plants one after another . Now , The Russian Ukrainian war triggered an energy crisis , It could also trigger a nuclear race . expect , Europe will restart nuclear power plants , Increasing nuclear power supply while maintaining a leading edge in nuclear technology . The German Green Party, which had strongly opposed nuclear power, also said it could restart the nuclear power plant to get rid of Russian energy .
For Europe , The biggest problem is not the long-term energy transformation , But the immediate energy shortage . Through the analysis above , Whether it's an increase in production or an alternative , The gap of Russian oil and gas cannot be filled in a short time . Europe will soon enter the off-season of natural gas demand , But the EU needs to prepare for this winter , Reserve natural gas and oil in advance . The future of this war is uncertain , But the trend of Europe getting rid of Russian energy will not change . at present , European enterprise power purchase agreement (PPA) Prices have risen significantly compared with the second half of last year . Britain has risen 7.6%, Denmark rose 16.7%; Photovoltaic power rose as a whole 5.7%, Wind power rose as a whole 9.4%.
Again , Europe also faces the challenge of rising food prices . Ukraine is European “ granary ”. The war has dealt a serious blow to Ukraine's food supply . meanwhile , Ukraine also banned wheat 、 The export of oats and other agricultural products .
The real challenge for the euro is how to maintain currency credit without Russian oil and gas . Actually , Europe's economic growth in the first quarter was not low . Denominated in euros , The real growth rate of the EU is 5.2%, The euro area is 5%. among , France for 5.3%, Germany for 4%. however , If converted into US dollars , As the euro depreciates against the dollar , France's first quarter GDP Year on year decline 60 Billion dollars , Germany has only increased 33 Billion dollars .
so , The whole of Europe faces the risk of asset repricing . expect , The European Central Bank will also follow up the pace of tightening in the second half of the year , To reduce the impact of the devaluation of the euro on , Try to avoid “ Dual core ” impact .
03PART Beyond the dollar
The rise of the US dollar index and the rise of international energy prices “ Dual core ” The impact applies to any country outside the United States . The binuclear impact created two “ Dissimilarity ”：
first “ Dissimilarity ”： The dollar index rose unilaterally , Non US dollar currencies basically fell against the US dollar . The dollar index rose from 2021 year 6 The beginning of the month 89 Continue to rise until this year 4 Month end 103; only 4 month , It went up 4.8%.
the second “ Dissimilarity ”： Yen 、 European currencies bear the brunt .
The perspective of binuclear impact better explains these two “ Dissimilarity ”. What we can't ignore is , In major economies , The United States is the only energy and food “ double ” Exporting country . This advantage strengthens the position of the dollar .
“ Dual core ” The impact on countries other than the dollar is not evenly distributed , There are differences in the depreciation range of non US dollar currencies against the US dollar （3 month 1 solstice 4 month 29 Japan ）：
First gear , The yen depreciated 11.8%.
Second gear , The European currency . The devaluation of the pound 6.5%, Devaluation of the euro 5.8%, The Danish Krona depreciated 5.9%, The Swiss Franc depreciated 5.4%, The Norwegian Krona depreciated 5.1%.
Third gear ： Asian Currency . Onshore RMB devaluation 4.5%, The Korean won depreciated 4.8%, Devaluation of the Thai baht 4.4%, Malaysian ringgit depreciated 3.5%.
Fourth gear ： Australian currency and Canadian dollar . Depreciation of Australian dollar 1.3%, The Canadian dollar depreciated 1.4%, The New Zealand dollar depreciated 3.5%.
Special file ： Emerging currencies that have depreciated against the dollar for a long time . The Turkish Lira depreciated 7.2%, last year 11 Monthly depreciation 28%; The Argentine Peso depreciated 7.4%,2019 year 8 Monthly depreciation 27%, Since then, the monthly depreciation range 1-4%.
In economies outside the dollar , The following factors are more likely to cause “ Dual core ” attack ： Sustained easing policy 、 The asset foam is high 、 High debt ratio 、 High dependence on foreign energy 、 The rate of grain self-sufficiency is low 、 Exports fell sharply or the deficit widened . conversely , The safe border of exchange rate should be higher .
I am here 《 This year's first thunderstorm country 》 Sri Lanka , This country matches almost perfectly all the above conditions . The energy crisis caused by the Russian Ukrainian war is the last straw to overwhelm the island country . Now , Sri Lanka , Exchange rate collapse , High inflation , Debt storm , energy 、 Food and medicine shortages , A humanitarian crisis is taking place .
Argentina is a conventional collapse country , since 1982 We haven't been able to get out of the trap since the debt crisis in . since this year on , Food prices have risen in Argentina 20.9%, Cumulative inflation rate exceeds 16%, In the past 12 The cumulative inflation rate in the past three months exceeded 55%. In the first four months of this year , The Central Bank of Argentina has raised interest rates four times , The benchmark interest rate has been raised to an alarming 47%, But it still can't stop high inflation and falling exchange rate . Turkey meets most of the above conditions , There were two stock debt exchange crises last year , Now it is in the process of rapid market clearing .
In turn, , In this round of austerity , Resource-based countries 、 The exchange rate decline of countries with export expansion is smaller . The energy crisis and food crisis have created resource export dividends , Among them, Australia 、 Canada 、 Brazil 、 Mexico's average income . By value ,2020 In, Australia's largest export commodity was iron 、 coal 、 oil 、 Gold and aluminum , In total, it accounts for 63%. China is the largest importer of Australian resources . meanwhile , Australia is also a major grain exporter , This year, China purchased a large amount of wheat from Australia and North America to replace Ukrainian grains . The situation in Canada is similar to that in Australia , Resources and food exports support the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar . New Zealand is an exporter of agricultural products , Also benefited from rising food prices .
Brazil staged again in March and April this year 70 s “ Script ”. Brazil is a resource exporter , stay 70 In the era of great inflation , Earn a lot of dollars by exporting resources . however 1982 year , The Federal Reserve raised interest rates quickly , Resource prices have plummeted , Trade surplus turns into deficit , Brazil is in a debt crisis . Now , The Fed raised interest rates , Prices and resources remain strong , Brazil still enjoys a resource export dividend . This year, 3-4 month , The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the US dollar did not fall first , It's going up 4.2%. Brazil's basic price is better than Argentina , But not as good as Australia and Canada . The inflation rate last year was 10%, Much higher than the median of the government's control target in that year 3.75%. In the past , The Brazilian real has depreciated against the US dollar for a long time , stay 2020 year 3 Monthly decline 14%. This year, , The Central Bank of Brazil has raised interest rates several times , At present, the benchmark interest rate has been raised to 12.75%. Brazil's central bank needs to prevent a recurrence when energy prices fall 1982 The tragedy of the year .
Vietnam is a low-key and pragmatic country 、 Open and enterprising 、 A country eager for change . It is not resource exports that support the country's economy and currency , It is “ Explosive single ” Exports of goods . First quarter , Vietnam's exports reached 891 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth exceeding 13%. The latest report of the world bank predicts , Vietnam is expected to become RCEP The countries with the fastest growth in income and trade among Member States . This year, 3-4 month , The devaluation of vnd against the US dollar is only 0.6%, Is the best performing Asian currency .
Finally, China . The situation in China is the most special , Mainly reflected in the foreign exchange and capital management system . however , In the long run , The trend of RMB is still dominated by the law of exchange rate market . From the perspective of dual nuclear impact , China needs to focus on two aspects ： Self sufficiency rate of oil and grain , Short term capital outflow and commodity export growth .
China is the world's largest oil and gas consumer , It is also the largest importer of oil and gas , The dependence on foreign oil is 73%, Natural gas is 84%. Rising oil and gas prices will increase domestic transportation 、 Domestic gas 、 plastic 、 textile 、 Daily Necessities 、 Prices of building materials, etc . Some of China's metal resources are highly dependent on imports . The external dependence of iron ore is 64.7%、 Copper ore is 92.9%、 Manganese ore sand is 95.9%、 Bauxite is 59.5%、 Nickel ore is 85.7%、 Platinum is 100.0%. among , Iron ore is the second largest deficit species , From Australia every year 、 The import volume of Canada and other countries exceeds 600 Billion dollars . in addition , Ethylene polymer 、 cyclic hydrocarbon 、 Xylene 、 The external dependence of potash fertilizer is high , Xylene is 50.5%、 Potash fertilizer is 43.0%.
China's grain is in a tight balance .2021 China's grain output in 6.83 One hundred million tons of , Imported grain 1.65 One hundred million tons of . among , rice 、 The self-sufficiency rate of wheat and corn is relatively high , soybean 、 Vegetable oil 、 Beef depends on imports . among , The external dependence of palm oil is 100%, Soybeans are 83%, Barley is 78%. Ukraine and Russia are China's major grain importers . Ukraine 10% The cultivated land is cultivated by Chinese enterprises . After the war broke out , China turned to Australia and North America to import a large amount of grain . actually , The last year , China will vigorously import grain , rice 、 barley 、 sorghum 、 The growth rate of corn imports exceeded 50%. Another thing that is easily overlooked is , China's dependence on foreign grain seeds is very high .
Actually , Nowadays, the food demand of all countries in the world depends on global supply and production . In this crisis , Countries with higher external dependence , The import cost of grain is higher , Need to consume more foreign exchange reserves .
Then look at capital outflow and commodity export . The RMB exchange rate is mainly supported by commodity exports , Last year, China's commodity exports were booming , A large inflow of US dollars has pushed up the RMB exchange rate . China's central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits , Trying to curb the rapid appreciation of the RMB . since 2019 Year begins , The central bank will no longer force commercial banks to settle foreign exchange , A lot of dollars are stuck in commercial banks , Cumulatively up to 1.3 Trillions of dollars . This year, , China's export growth rate fell at a high level ,4 The RMB depreciated rapidly against the US dollar in June , The central bank also lowered the foreign exchange reserve ratio , Try to release more dollar liquidity to curb the rapid depreciation of the RMB . expect , In the future, China's export growth will decline , This will drive the devaluation of the RMB .
We can focus on the correlation between the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index . since 2016 Since then , The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is highly correlated with the US dollar index . But in the last six months , The two obviously deviate from . If the dollar index remains at 103 above , According to past experience , The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may fall to 6.8-7 Between .
We also need to consider the risk of dual nuclear impact , Especially energy （ food ） The price rise and the rise of the US dollar index reinforce each other .
This war is actually changing the international monetary system . Famous Credit Suisse Analyst Zoltan Propose the Bretton Woods system III. He thinks that , Commodities and politics are changing the international monetary status of the dollar . I think there are two changes that deserve attention ：
First, the European and American world is trying to establish an international financial system for oil to Russia .
Second, countries are strengthening state power to increase intervention in the monetary and financial system , Increase food 、 Self sufficiency rate of energy and key resources , Increase credit endorsement for local currency .
As a counter measure , Russia expressed its support for “ Unfriendly countries ” Supply of natural gas , Ask the other party to settle in rubles . The state has the power to give its own currency “ Application scenarios ”, To support the exchange rate of the local currency . After the battle , Major countries will strengthen national strength 、 The tightness and security of key resources and money .
Last , We should pay attention to “ Dual core ” The unexpected risks caused by the mutual enhancement of shocks .
In the first quarter, the United States actually GDP fell 1.4%, Growth below market expectations 1%, But this score is not bad , Year on year real growth 4.3%. This will not change the Fed's determination to tighten , Curbing inflation is the Fed's top priority right now . The Federal Reserve announced in May that it would increase the federal funds rate 0.5%. meanwhile , The Fed also announced that it would start to shrink its watch from June . This decision is in line with market expectations , US stocks and international oil prices rose instead of falling . same day , NASDAQ Index 、 The s&p 、 The Dow closed higher 3.19%、2.99% and 2.81%, Gold prices rose during the day 0.9% about , The United States WTI The price of crude oil rose to 108 about , The dollar index fell by 1%. If the Fed wants to achieve its inflation target , You have to hit oil prices , Then perform more than expected operations .
The Federal Reserve released in May “ pigeon ”, Is it the most “ eagle ” The time has passed ？ To what extent will the Fed's tightening policy ？
At the press conference of the may interest conference, there was a question ： The Fed has achieved 2% The inflation target of , Whether the supply problem needs to be solved first ？ Fed chairman Powell said , The Fed's goal is to solve the problem of overheating demand , Focus more on eliminating the core of energy and food prices PCE indicators . This means , The Fed will tighten to a certain extent , Aimed at solving inflation caused by excessive demand , Not dedicated to fighting energy 、 The price rise caused by the problem of food supply .
such , The dollar index rose to a certain extent and energy （ food ） High maintenance will exist at the same time , This is likely to pose a dual nuclear impact on non US dollar countries , At the same time, there are mutually reinforcing effects . We need to pay close attention to Europe, which is plagued by war and energy crisis 、 Japan and special emerging countries . These countries have to sell more local currencies , In pursuit of dollars and energy 、 food . In this different crisis , US stock 、 The currency of resource poor countries 、 Bonds and real estate in emerging countries , And all the assets of special countries , More vulnerable to impact .
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