current position:Home>Ice and fire of cross-border e-commerce: Shopify winter and sheen attack

Ice and fire of cross-border e-commerce: Shopify winter and sheen attack

2022-05-08 00:54:45Value Institute

 picture source @ Vision China

picture source @ Vision China

writing | Value Institute

2006 It was officially launched in , Positioned on the one-stop e-commerce service platform 、 Provide various online services for retail business customers , From one family only 5 Small companies with individual start-ups use 16 It has grown into a peak in years, with a market value of more than 1600 The second largest cross-border e-commerce giant in North America with us $billion ,Shopify The history of wealth is legendary .

But along the way , Eat all the dividends of the times Shopify, Now it's time to slam on the brakes .

The announcement before Thursday's US stock market 2022 First quarter financial report of fiscal year shows ,Shopify The performance of various core financial data is not ideal : Revenue growth dropped significantly , The amount of loss continues to enlarge .

After the announcement of financial statements ,Shopify It has fallen for two consecutive days , On Thursday, it closed down nearly 15%, Down to last year 4 Lowest since . Besides , National Bank of Canada 、 Citigroup and many other big banks also lowered their prices Shopify Target price , The evaluation of this financial report by the capital market is self-evident .

Profit decline 、 The loss magnified , In addition to the slowdown in revenue growth , The increase of cost and the transformation of revenue structure are also important reasons . what's more , The gross profit margin of subscription solution business with relatively low revenue is much higher than that of merchant subscription service .

In the Research Report of Wall Street investment banks , All mentioned Shopify Of “ Domestic trouble and foreign invasion ”: Internal worries are naturally the decline in revenue growth and the amplification of losses , And foreign invasion , It points directly at the rising external competitors .

Under internal and external troubles ,Shopify Whether we can ride the wind and waves ?

Lower than expected revenue 、 Net loss amplification , I can't feed enough Shopify

Before Thursday's US stock market , Cross border e-commerce giants Shopify published 2022 The first quarter of the fiscal year , The performance of various core financial data is not ideal .

This is not ideal , Mainly in two aspects : First, the decline of revenue growth , The second is the amplification of losses .

The growth rate of revenue decreased significantly , The epidemic dividend continues to subside

First, look at the overall revenue . From the revenue growth curve ,Shopify Although the actual revenue scale does not regress too much , But it is an indisputable fact that the growth rate of revenue continues to decline .

data display ,Shopify The total revenue in the first quarter was 12.04 Billion dollars , Less than the market expected 12.4 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 22%. Four quarters of the last fiscal year ,Shopify The revenues are 9.88 Billion 、11.19 Billion 、12.23 Eva 13.38 Billion dollars , The corresponding year-on-year growth rates were 110%、57%、46% and 41%, Are much higher than in the first quarter of this year .

In the opinion of the value Institute ,Shopify Revenue bid farewell to the era of high growth , It is largely due to the gradual decline of cross-border e-commerce dividends brought by the epidemic . The most direct evidence , Namely Shopify Business scale and growth rate GMV The decline in growth .

As the epidemic has a serious impact on the global offline retail industry , E-commerce has become a direct beneficiary .2020 In the year ,Shopify Net growth 70 Ten thousand businesses , This horrific performance has attracted the attention of the industry . However , This hot market disappeared in the second half of last year .Shopify Senior executives also admitted in the fourth quarter earnings report last year ,“ The outbreak of e-commerce industry induced by the epidemic only lasted until 2021 In the first half of ”, The number of new businesses shrank sharply to 30 ten thousand .

in fact , Since the second half of last year Shopify We will continue to launch various preferential activities and innovation activities , Include and Tik Tok、 Jingdong cooperation , Trying to drive the number of businesses to continue to grow , Unfortunately, the effect is not satisfactory .

GMV aspect , In the first quarter 432 Billion dollars , Also less than the market expected 465 Billion dollars ,16% The year-on-year growth rate is the same as that of the same period last year 114% There is a great difference . Need to know , Second half of last year Shopify Of GMV Still hold 50% The above year-on-year growth , The decline in the first quarter disappointed the market .

Behind the loss amplification , Cost pressure is becoming increasingly prominent

secondly , While revenue growth stagnates ,Shopify The loss situation is not optimistic .

First quarter ,Shopify A net loss 14.74 Billion dollars , Compared to the same period last year 12.6 The dollar is further magnified . Diluted loss per share was recorded 11.7 Billion dollars , Compared with the first quarter of last year 9.94 The diluted earnings per share of US dollars have fallen sharply .

Profit decline 、 The loss magnified , In addition to the slowdown in revenue growth , The increase of cost and the transformation of revenue structure are also important reasons .

at present ,Shopify Its revenue mainly depends on subscription solution business and merchant solution business , The latter accounts for the bulk of revenue . First quarter , Merchant solutions business revenue 8.59 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 29%; Subscription solution business revenue is 3.45 Billion dollars , Year on year growth only 8%.

Compare historical data , The revenue growth of the two business segments in the first quarter was not high . In the same period last year , This subscription solution business revenue 3.21 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 77%; The revenue and year-on-year growth of merchant solution business are as high as 6.68 $and 136%.

what's more , The gross profit margin of subscription solution business is much higher than that of merchant subscription service .

Revenue from subscription solutions business , Mainly from providing subscription function package 、 plug-in unit 、 E-commerce such as customer management SaaS service . The merchant solution business relies on the payment provided for the settled merchants 、 logistics 、 Profit from charging services such as warehousing .

In the first quarter earnings report ,Shopify It focuses on the acquisition Deliverr The situation of , It indicates that the scope of performance services will be expanded .Shopify Of CFO Amy Shapero Express , Believe in Deliverr Can simplify the process 、 Guaranteed delivery commitment , Provide more advantages for businesses .

thus it can be seen , The future of merchant solutions business is still Shopify Main force direction . But relatively higher operating costs , Especially logistics 、 The construction of technical facilities required for storage costs a lot , Seriously restrict the gross profit level of the business .

let me put it another way , With the current revenue structure ,Shopify It's hard for the dividend to subside 、 The decline in revenue growth pushed up profit margins .

( The picture is from Shopify results )

Of course , Profit worries more than Shopify.

The first quarter of this year , Amazon released its worst financial report in recent years . among , Revenue from e-commerce related businesses 、 Profit margin and other indicators fell in an all-round way , Even more 2015 Loss for the first time since , Directly caused Amazon's share price to plummet , Market value evaporated overnight 2000 Billion dollars .

Shopify The share price performance of is also not optimistic . After the announcement of financial statements ,Shopify It has fallen for two consecutive days , On Thursday, it closed down nearly 15%, Down to last year 4 Lowest since .

in fact , After the financial report , Amazon and Shopify The target price has been lowered by many major Wall Street banks , The capital market is full of worries about the prospects of these two high-quality stocks . Especially the latter , By Citigroup 、 National Bank of Canada 、 Steffield and others have been looking down on , Citigroup set its target price from 534 The dollar fell sharply to 432 dollar .

In the research reports of these investment banks , All mentioned Shopify Of “ Domestic trouble and foreign invasion ”: Internal worries are naturally the decline in revenue growth and the amplification of losses , And foreign invasion , It points directly at the rising external competitors .

Some of the strongest opponents , Just from China .

Online retailers SaaS outside ,SHEIN Provides another attempt

And into the winter Shopify Different , The domestic cross-border e-commerce industry is still in a thriving trend .

According to the report of prospective industry Research Institute ,2019 Years later, , The domestic cross-border e-commerce industry has entered a period of rapid development , As of the first half of last year, the overall market scale reached 6.05 One trillion . data display , Over the past three years, the growth rate of transaction scale of China's cross-border e-commerce industry has maintained at 16% above , The penetration rate is from... Five years ago 22% All the way up to 38.86%.

Reviewing the development trend of domestic cross-border e-commerce market, we can find , Capital has been looking for the next Shopify.

Statistics of Zhitong finance and economics show that , Over the past year, Aike Technology 、 Leyan Technology 、 Leading star ERP、 Store secretaries and dozens of cross-border e-commerce SaaS The company reaps a new round of financing , The total financing scale exceeds 25 Billion . Besides , I like it 、 Both Weimeng and the old cross-border e-commerce giant Weimeng are making efforts SaaS Business .

among , Dunhuang. Com's MyyShop And Weimeng's Shopexpress, The upward trend is most obvious .

and Shopify comparison ,MyyShop and Shopexpress Although the scale is very different , But the advantage lies in relying on China's huge market and the complete e-commerce industry chain behind it .Shopify When announcing the strategic cooperation with jd.com, he publicly acknowledged , Chinese sellers are the most active cross-border e-commerce seller team in the world , Occupy an important role in the industrial chain .

However , With Shopify Bid farewell to the era of high growth 、 Fall to the altar ,MyyShop、Shopexpress Followers may need to rethink : Online retailers SaaS Whether the model is profitable or not ?Shopify Is it really possible to duplicate the growth myth of ?

The value Institute believes that , Live in MyyShop、Shopexpress Next yo SHEIN, Maybe it can solve some doubts .

As the most popular cross-border e-commerce platform in recent years ,SHEIN The legendary color of his body is no less than Shopify. The two are quite different in revenue structure and business performance , It perfectly interprets the cross-border e-commerce industry SaaS、DTC The similarities and differences between the two business models and their respective advantages and disadvantages .

according to Apptopia The data of ,SHEIN stay 2021 The total number of downloads in is 1.9 Billion , a 2020 Annual inflation 70%, And has surpassed Amazon to become the world's most downloaded shopping APP. According to foreign media reports ,SHEIN The current valuation is as high as $100 billion , Three times more than a year ago ; Last year's revenue is expected to be 157 Billion dollars , An increase of nearly 60%—— Further forward 8 year ,SHEIN Has created continuous 8 Annual revenue growth 100% Myth .

Up to now ,SHEIN At present, the market share of fast fashion in North America is close to 30%, amount to ZARA and H&M The sum of . In the latter's eyes ,SHEIN Has long been the number one enemy . about SHEIN For their followers and the capital behind them ,SHEIN The performance of the , To some extent, it is equivalent to a barometer of the cross-border e-commerce market .

Of course , envy SHEIN It's not just foreign giants . At home , Ali 、 Jingdong and other old e-commerce overlords , There are also companies that want to have a place in the overseas market , Long ago SHEIN See yourself as your number one enemy .

At the end of last year , Alibaba has launched fashion shopping focusing on women's market overseas APP“AllyLikes”, Heavy bets on the North American market . It should be noted that , Alibaba's cross-border business has always followed the comprehensive e-commerce route ,AllyLikes It is the first time to try the vertical e-commerce mode , It's Ali's initiative to change .

The North American market where Ali has made a heavy bet , Not just Amazon and Shopify Stronghold , It's also SHEIN An important granary —— No matter from which angle , Ali's move to the north is bound to further intensify market competition .

Objective to , Leading the upsurge of domestic cross-border e-commerce , Is not Shopify Led by e-commerce SaaS Pattern , But Alibaba international station 、SHEIN Headed by DTC Pattern .

Investigation organization Grand View Research Statistics show that , Expect to 2025 year , The scale of the global decentralized e-commerce market dominated by independent stations will rise sharply to 5500 Over US $100 million . Cross border e-commerce platforms from China have stepped into the battlefield of North America , It will undoubtedly pose a great threat to the local e-commerce platforms in the United States and Canada .

It's just ,Shopify And Amazon's recent experience , For the big red and purple SHEIN And the imitator Ali behind it 、 Bytes also have important warning significance .

Shopify And Amazon , Ali 、SHEIN、 Bytes or not , We must deal with the contradiction between cost and profit margin . It's not just about SaaS、DTC The competition between the two major cross-border e-commerce tracks , More implied B2B、B2C And other supply chain management problems that cannot be avoided by various business models .

The future of cross-border e-commerce : Pay attention to customer operation & Strengthen supply chain management

without doubt , The epidemic has indeed brought a series of uncertainties to the cross-border e-commerce industry , It also puts forward new requirements for all players in the market .

Shopify Headed by SaaS Electronic business platform , and SHEIN As a representative of the DTC Cross border e-commerce outbreak , It has something to do with the blocking of offline business channels after the outbreak of the epidemic , The tightening of offline supply chain also brings rare e-commerce dividends .

besides , The two have another thing in common ——B2C Patterns are beginning to play an increasingly important role .

In the current core battlefield, North America ,B2C It's better than B2B More popular models . The reason for this , It is related to the consumption habits of North American consumers and the popularity of cross-border e-commerce business .

According to the data of iResearch consulting statistics , The United States 61% Of consumers are willing to shop on international websites , Accounting for% of cross-border online shopping consumption 32%, The proportion of Canada is 33%,C End consumer firepower is approaching B End . It is precisely because local consumers in North America are enthusiastic about cross-border consumption 、 The repurchase rate and single consumption are at the leading level in the world , Therefore, cross-border independent stations are increasingly prosperous , The increase of supply promotes the growth of consumption , Forming a virtuous circle .

Historical data shows ,2016 Years later, Shopify Merchant solutions business to 52% The proportion of revenue exceeds that of subscription solution business , Then the gap between the two becomes larger and larger . During this period ,Shopify Rely on building independent stations to help businesses connect C End resources , Not only rapidly improve the brand image and popularity of , It has significantly broadened the way of revenue , It provides an opportunity for small and medium-sized businesses in North America to get rid of Amazon monopoly .

Now Ali 、SHEIN To burn the war to North America , Naturally, we should learn from the successful experience of our predecessors , Identify the pain points of local customers —— That is to do a good job in localized operation .

A lot of people will SHEIN The success of the product is attributed to the rapid drop point and ultra-high cost performance , But ignore its user operation ability .

Track user preferences through big data and technical means , yes SHEIN The most important operating principle . Official data show ,SHEIN yes Google Trend Finder Key customers of , The two sides have been working closely on customer data management . Besides ,SHEIN To have a 800 People's buyer team , Track users' consumption habits through offline channels .

Two pronged SHEIN, It can even be said that it is one of China's cross-border e-commerce platforms , Users have the strongest thinking 、 The most successful localization operation .

But as I said earlier ,Shopify Of SaaS The model is good ,SHEIN The self-supporting mode of , Keep going B2C There is an obvious flaw in all routes : High operating costs , And the industrial chain links connecting upstream and downstream are more complex , Facing a severe test in Management .

and B2B Compared to model ,B2C Mode because you want to connect C End consumers , So it involves cumbersome distribution and retail 、 After-sales service 、 Terminal warehousing, logistics, distribution and Payment Finance , Rising cost pressure is almost inevitable .

To put it another way , Strengthen supply chain management , It is the inevitable choice to reduce costs , It is also the key to break through the profit bottleneck in the future .

As for the specific measures , It is positioned as SaaS Of the service platform Shopify And those who do their own business SHEIN, Nature has its own emphasis . But they have one thing in common —— Strengthen the control of all links of the supply chain , Firmly grasp the core link with higher profit margin in their own hands .

Acquisition Deliverr, Namely Shopify Strengthen the control of downstream logistics and warehousing links . At the moment when the competition is gradually becoming white hot , Who can solve supply chain problems faster , Who can take the initiative .

At the end

According to foreign media reports , Amazon went online internally early last year “ Santos project ”, By Amazon vice president of consumer Peter Larsen Commander in chief , It has gathered a large number of elite employees in Amazon's retail consumption Department , The goal is to strangle the rapidly rising Shopify.

At the time ,Shopify In its heyday , The market share is close to eBay, Subsequently, it officially took the second place in the cross-border e-commerce market in North America . Made a fortune by small and medium-sized business customers Shopify, To some extent, it has many similarities with Alibaba , These two giants also pose a great threat to Amazon, the overlord of e-commerce in different periods .

Now look back , Amazon may have overestimated Shopify The power of , I didn't expect a sudden rise SHEIN On the contrary, it has become a new major problem .

From Amazon 、eBay、 Alibaba , And now Shopify、SHEIN and Shopee, The tide of cross-border e-commerce has been rising and falling for more than ten years , No one can tell what new stories will happen in the next stage . from SaaS To DTC, from B2B To B2C, No one can predict which model can continue to shine in the future .

There is only one thing for sure : The popularity of cross-border e-commerce remains high , All players will not give up this treasure easily . That means , More intense fighting is still ahead .

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