Ice and fire of cross-border e-commerce: Shopify winter and sheen attack
2022-05-08 00:54:45【Value Institute】
writing | Value Institute
2006 It was officially launched in , Positioned on the one-stop e-commerce service platform 、 Provide various online services for retail business customers , From one family only 5 Small companies with individual start-ups use 16 It has grown into a peak in years, with a market value of more than 1600 The second largest cross-border e-commerce giant in North America with us $billion ,Shopify The history of wealth is legendary .
But along the way , Eat all the dividends of the times Shopify, Now it's time to slam on the brakes .
The announcement before Thursday's US stock market 2022 First quarter financial report of fiscal year shows ,Shopify The performance of various core financial data is not ideal ： Revenue growth dropped significantly , The amount of loss continues to enlarge .
After the announcement of financial statements ,Shopify It has fallen for two consecutive days , On Thursday, it closed down nearly 15%, Down to last year 4 Lowest since . Besides , National Bank of Canada 、 Citigroup and many other big banks also lowered their prices Shopify Target price , The evaluation of this financial report by the capital market is self-evident .
Profit decline 、 The loss magnified , In addition to the slowdown in revenue growth , The increase of cost and the transformation of revenue structure are also important reasons . what's more , The gross profit margin of subscription solution business with relatively low revenue is much higher than that of merchant subscription service .
In the Research Report of Wall Street investment banks , All mentioned Shopify Of “ Domestic trouble and foreign invasion ”： Internal worries are naturally the decline in revenue growth and the amplification of losses , And foreign invasion , It points directly at the rising external competitors .
Under internal and external troubles ,Shopify Whether we can ride the wind and waves ？
Lower than expected revenue 、 Net loss amplification , I can't feed enough Shopify
Before Thursday's US stock market , Cross border e-commerce giants Shopify published 2022 The first quarter of the fiscal year , The performance of various core financial data is not ideal .
This is not ideal , Mainly in two aspects ： First, the decline of revenue growth , The second is the amplification of losses .
The growth rate of revenue decreased significantly , The epidemic dividend continues to subside
First, look at the overall revenue . From the revenue growth curve ,Shopify Although the actual revenue scale does not regress too much , But it is an indisputable fact that the growth rate of revenue continues to decline .
data display ,Shopify The total revenue in the first quarter was 12.04 Billion dollars , Less than the market expected 12.4 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 22%. Four quarters of the last fiscal year ,Shopify The revenues are 9.88 Billion 、11.19 Billion 、12.23 Eva 13.38 Billion dollars , The corresponding year-on-year growth rates were 110%、57%、46% and 41%, Are much higher than in the first quarter of this year .
In the opinion of the value Institute ,Shopify Revenue bid farewell to the era of high growth , It is largely due to the gradual decline of cross-border e-commerce dividends brought by the epidemic . The most direct evidence , Namely Shopify Business scale and growth rate GMV The decline in growth .
As the epidemic has a serious impact on the global offline retail industry , E-commerce has become a direct beneficiary .2020 In the year ,Shopify Net growth 70 Ten thousand businesses , This horrific performance has attracted the attention of the industry . However , This hot market disappeared in the second half of last year .Shopify Senior executives also admitted in the fourth quarter earnings report last year ,“ The outbreak of e-commerce industry induced by the epidemic only lasted until 2021 In the first half of ”, The number of new businesses shrank sharply to 30 ten thousand .
in fact , Since the second half of last year Shopify We will continue to launch various preferential activities and innovation activities , Include and Tik Tok、 Jingdong cooperation , Trying to drive the number of businesses to continue to grow , Unfortunately, the effect is not satisfactory .
GMV aspect , In the first quarter 432 Billion dollars , Also less than the market expected 465 Billion dollars ,16% The year-on-year growth rate is the same as that of the same period last year 114% There is a great difference . Need to know , Second half of last year Shopify Of GMV Still hold 50% The above year-on-year growth , The decline in the first quarter disappointed the market .
Behind the loss amplification , Cost pressure is becoming increasingly prominent
secondly , While revenue growth stagnates ,Shopify The loss situation is not optimistic .
First quarter ,Shopify A net loss 14.74 Billion dollars , Compared to the same period last year 12.6 The dollar is further magnified . Diluted loss per share was recorded 11.7 Billion dollars , Compared with the first quarter of last year 9.94 The diluted earnings per share of US dollars have fallen sharply .
Profit decline 、 The loss magnified , In addition to the slowdown in revenue growth , The increase of cost and the transformation of revenue structure are also important reasons .
at present ,Shopify Its revenue mainly depends on subscription solution business and merchant solution business , The latter accounts for the bulk of revenue . First quarter , Merchant solutions business revenue 8.59 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 29%; Subscription solution business revenue is 3.45 Billion dollars , Year on year growth only 8%.
Compare historical data , The revenue growth of the two business segments in the first quarter was not high . In the same period last year , This subscription solution business revenue 3.21 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 77%; The revenue and year-on-year growth of merchant solution business are as high as 6.68 $and 136%.
what's more , The gross profit margin of subscription solution business is much higher than that of merchant subscription service .
Revenue from subscription solutions business , Mainly from providing subscription function package 、 plug-in unit 、 E-commerce such as customer management SaaS service . The merchant solution business relies on the payment provided for the settled merchants 、 logistics 、 Profit from charging services such as warehousing .
In the first quarter earnings report ,Shopify It focuses on the acquisition Deliverr The situation of , It indicates that the scope of performance services will be expanded .Shopify Of CFO Amy Shapero Express , Believe in Deliverr Can simplify the process 、 Guaranteed delivery commitment , Provide more advantages for businesses .
thus it can be seen , The future of merchant solutions business is still Shopify Main force direction . But relatively higher operating costs , Especially logistics 、 The construction of technical facilities required for storage costs a lot , Seriously restrict the gross profit level of the business .
let me put it another way , With the current revenue structure ,Shopify It's hard for the dividend to subside 、 The decline in revenue growth pushed up profit margins .
Of course , Profit worries more than Shopify.
The first quarter of this year , Amazon released its worst financial report in recent years . among , Revenue from e-commerce related businesses 、 Profit margin and other indicators fell in an all-round way , Even more 2015 Loss for the first time since , Directly caused Amazon's share price to plummet , Market value evaporated overnight 2000 Billion dollars .
Shopify The share price performance of is also not optimistic . After the announcement of financial statements ,Shopify It has fallen for two consecutive days , On Thursday, it closed down nearly 15%, Down to last year 4 Lowest since .
in fact , After the financial report , Amazon and Shopify The target price has been lowered by many major Wall Street banks , The capital market is full of worries about the prospects of these two high-quality stocks . Especially the latter , By Citigroup 、 National Bank of Canada 、 Steffield and others have been looking down on , Citigroup set its target price from 534 The dollar fell sharply to 432 dollar .
In the research reports of these investment banks , All mentioned Shopify Of “ Domestic trouble and foreign invasion ”： Internal worries are naturally the decline in revenue growth and the amplification of losses , And foreign invasion , It points directly at the rising external competitors .
Some of the strongest opponents , Just from China .
Online retailers SaaS outside ,SHEIN Provides another attempt
And into the winter Shopify Different , The domestic cross-border e-commerce industry is still in a thriving trend .
According to the report of prospective industry Research Institute ,2019 Years later, , The domestic cross-border e-commerce industry has entered a period of rapid development , As of the first half of last year, the overall market scale reached 6.05 One trillion . data display , Over the past three years, the growth rate of transaction scale of China's cross-border e-commerce industry has maintained at 16% above , The penetration rate is from... Five years ago 22% All the way up to 38.86%.
Reviewing the development trend of domestic cross-border e-commerce market, we can find , Capital has been looking for the next Shopify.
Statistics of Zhitong finance and economics show that , Over the past year, Aike Technology 、 Leyan Technology 、 Leading star ERP、 Store secretaries and dozens of cross-border e-commerce SaaS The company reaps a new round of financing , The total financing scale exceeds 25 Billion . Besides , I like it 、 Both Weimeng and the old cross-border e-commerce giant Weimeng are making efforts SaaS Business .
among , Dunhuang. Com's MyyShop And Weimeng's Shopexpress, The upward trend is most obvious .
and Shopify comparison ,MyyShop and Shopexpress Although the scale is very different , But the advantage lies in relying on China's huge market and the complete e-commerce industry chain behind it .Shopify When announcing the strategic cooperation with jd.com, he publicly acknowledged , Chinese sellers are the most active cross-border e-commerce seller team in the world , Occupy an important role in the industrial chain .
However , With Shopify Bid farewell to the era of high growth 、 Fall to the altar ,MyyShop、Shopexpress Followers may need to rethink ： Online retailers SaaS Whether the model is profitable or not ？Shopify Is it really possible to duplicate the growth myth of ？
The value Institute believes that , Live in MyyShop、Shopexpress Next yo SHEIN, Maybe it can solve some doubts .
As the most popular cross-border e-commerce platform in recent years ,SHEIN The legendary color of his body is no less than Shopify. The two are quite different in revenue structure and business performance , It perfectly interprets the cross-border e-commerce industry SaaS、DTC The similarities and differences between the two business models and their respective advantages and disadvantages .
according to Apptopia The data of ,SHEIN stay 2021 The total number of downloads in is 1.9 Billion , a 2020 Annual inflation 70%, And has surpassed Amazon to become the world's most downloaded shopping APP. According to foreign media reports ,SHEIN The current valuation is as high as $100 billion , Three times more than a year ago ; Last year's revenue is expected to be 157 Billion dollars , An increase of nearly 60%—— Further forward 8 year ,SHEIN Has created continuous 8 Annual revenue growth 100% Myth .
Up to now ,SHEIN At present, the market share of fast fashion in North America is close to 30%, amount to ZARA and H&M The sum of . In the latter's eyes ,SHEIN Has long been the number one enemy . about SHEIN For their followers and the capital behind them ,SHEIN The performance of the , To some extent, it is equivalent to a barometer of the cross-border e-commerce market .
Of course , envy SHEIN It's not just foreign giants . At home , Ali 、 Jingdong and other old e-commerce overlords , There are also companies that want to have a place in the overseas market , Long ago SHEIN See yourself as your number one enemy .
At the end of last year , Alibaba has launched fashion shopping focusing on women's market overseas APP“AllyLikes”, Heavy bets on the North American market . It should be noted that , Alibaba's cross-border business has always followed the comprehensive e-commerce route ,AllyLikes It is the first time to try the vertical e-commerce mode , It's Ali's initiative to change .
The North American market where Ali has made a heavy bet , Not just Amazon and Shopify Stronghold , It's also SHEIN An important granary —— No matter from which angle , Ali's move to the north is bound to further intensify market competition .
Objective to , Leading the upsurge of domestic cross-border e-commerce , Is not Shopify Led by e-commerce SaaS Pattern , But Alibaba international station 、SHEIN Headed by DTC Pattern .
Investigation organization Grand View Research Statistics show that , Expect to 2025 year , The scale of the global decentralized e-commerce market dominated by independent stations will rise sharply to 5500 Over US $100 million . Cross border e-commerce platforms from China have stepped into the battlefield of North America , It will undoubtedly pose a great threat to the local e-commerce platforms in the United States and Canada .
It's just ,Shopify And Amazon's recent experience , For the big red and purple SHEIN And the imitator Ali behind it 、 Bytes also have important warning significance .
Shopify And Amazon , Ali 、SHEIN、 Bytes or not , We must deal with the contradiction between cost and profit margin . It's not just about SaaS、DTC The competition between the two major cross-border e-commerce tracks , More implied B2B、B2C And other supply chain management problems that cannot be avoided by various business models .
The future of cross-border e-commerce ： Pay attention to customer operation & Strengthen supply chain management
without doubt , The epidemic has indeed brought a series of uncertainties to the cross-border e-commerce industry , It also puts forward new requirements for all players in the market .
Shopify Headed by SaaS Electronic business platform , and SHEIN As a representative of the DTC Cross border e-commerce outbreak , It has something to do with the blocking of offline business channels after the outbreak of the epidemic , The tightening of offline supply chain also brings rare e-commerce dividends .
besides , The two have another thing in common ——B2C Patterns are beginning to play an increasingly important role .
In the current core battlefield, North America ,B2C It's better than B2B More popular models . The reason for this , It is related to the consumption habits of North American consumers and the popularity of cross-border e-commerce business .
According to the data of iResearch consulting statistics , The United States 61% Of consumers are willing to shop on international websites , Accounting for% of cross-border online shopping consumption 32%, The proportion of Canada is 33%,C End consumer firepower is approaching B End . It is precisely because local consumers in North America are enthusiastic about cross-border consumption 、 The repurchase rate and single consumption are at the leading level in the world , Therefore, cross-border independent stations are increasingly prosperous , The increase of supply promotes the growth of consumption , Forming a virtuous circle .
Historical data shows ,2016 Years later, Shopify Merchant solutions business to 52% The proportion of revenue exceeds that of subscription solution business , Then the gap between the two becomes larger and larger . During this period ,Shopify Rely on building independent stations to help businesses connect C End resources , Not only rapidly improve the brand image and popularity of , It has significantly broadened the way of revenue , It provides an opportunity for small and medium-sized businesses in North America to get rid of Amazon monopoly .
Now Ali 、SHEIN To burn the war to North America , Naturally, we should learn from the successful experience of our predecessors , Identify the pain points of local customers —— That is to do a good job in localized operation .
A lot of people will SHEIN The success of the product is attributed to the rapid drop point and ultra-high cost performance , But ignore its user operation ability .
Track user preferences through big data and technical means , yes SHEIN The most important operating principle . Official data show ,SHEIN yes Google Trend Finder Key customers of , The two sides have been working closely on customer data management . Besides ,SHEIN To have a 800 People's buyer team , Track users' consumption habits through offline channels .
Two pronged SHEIN, It can even be said that it is one of China's cross-border e-commerce platforms , Users have the strongest thinking 、 The most successful localization operation .
But as I said earlier ,Shopify Of SaaS The model is good ,SHEIN The self-supporting mode of , Keep going B2C There is an obvious flaw in all routes ： High operating costs , And the industrial chain links connecting upstream and downstream are more complex , Facing a severe test in Management .
and B2B Compared to model ,B2C Mode because you want to connect C End consumers , So it involves cumbersome distribution and retail 、 After-sales service 、 Terminal warehousing, logistics, distribution and Payment Finance , Rising cost pressure is almost inevitable .
To put it another way , Strengthen supply chain management , It is the inevitable choice to reduce costs , It is also the key to break through the profit bottleneck in the future .
As for the specific measures , It is positioned as SaaS Of the service platform Shopify And those who do their own business SHEIN, Nature has its own emphasis . But they have one thing in common —— Strengthen the control of all links of the supply chain , Firmly grasp the core link with higher profit margin in their own hands .
Acquisition Deliverr, Namely Shopify Strengthen the control of downstream logistics and warehousing links . At the moment when the competition is gradually becoming white hot , Who can solve supply chain problems faster , Who can take the initiative .
At the end
According to foreign media reports , Amazon went online internally early last year “ Santos project ”, By Amazon vice president of consumer Peter Larsen Commander in chief , It has gathered a large number of elite employees in Amazon's retail consumption Department , The goal is to strangle the rapidly rising Shopify.
At the time ,Shopify In its heyday , The market share is close to eBay, Subsequently, it officially took the second place in the cross-border e-commerce market in North America . Made a fortune by small and medium-sized business customers Shopify, To some extent, it has many similarities with Alibaba , These two giants also pose a great threat to Amazon, the overlord of e-commerce in different periods .
Now look back , Amazon may have overestimated Shopify The power of , I didn't expect a sudden rise SHEIN On the contrary, it has become a new major problem .
From Amazon 、eBay、 Alibaba , And now Shopify、SHEIN and Shopee, The tide of cross-border e-commerce has been rising and falling for more than ten years , No one can tell what new stories will happen in the next stage . from SaaS To DTC, from B2B To B2C, No one can predict which model can continue to shine in the future .
There is only one thing for sure ： The popularity of cross-border e-commerce remains high , All players will not give up this treasure easily . That means , More intense fighting is still ahead .
author[Value Institute],Please bring the original link to reprint, thank you.
The sidebar is recommended
- Video editing software
- Anti science culture people, what kind of popular science do you want?
- Seven regrets of decoration loopholes. Don't fall into the pit when you are decorating!
- What if there is no nucleic acid certificate for passengers entering Zheng outside the province? Zhengzhou east coach station: on site arrangement
- Make work more free! From spreadsheet to low code, the birth and development of black technology software
- The headline is an encyclopedia. Please be kind to the headline
- Three solutions of volcanic engine help Hualin securities build a new version of dolphin stock
- Horizontal survey: the best remote tool! Todesk, sunflower, TeamViewer, anydesk
- 5g "routine" exposed? The people's daily made a sound overnight after 300 million people were cheated
- Mitsubishi PLC software installation, use, programming logic common problems summary, software installation so easy
guess what you like
The simplest family KTV establishment scheme
Interior designer registration conditions and examination contents - suggestions collection
Wild feast: what are the highlights of the 2022 Dakar Rally?
Jia Yueting's microblog IP possession is displayed as Beijing netizen: President Jia has returned home?
The investment companies of Nora whose licenses have been revoked have been cancelled or revoked
One of the most useful enrollment methods for art training institutions: special introduction
One hundred children around the factory had nosebleed, and BYD promised to make thorough rectification after being accused of pollution
The IP territorial business behind the network's popularity: some links have been taken off the shelf and are still selling for keywords
Dry goods kindergarten spring theme activity plan, collect it quickly
Dry goods: 800 million yuan sold in one year, panda does not go through the marketing planning scheme (detailed explanation of ppt on page 47)
- [uncle Dao said] a fire that has been burning for a hundred years
- This year's national college entrance examination will be held from June 7 to 8
- How to apply for Tiktok guild
- The revenue decline of several head MCN institutions and the openness of the contradiction between the platform
- Direct attack on March 15: apple, hungry, 51job, Internet companies named in those years
- Baidu home decoration brand Zhuang Xinjia starts xinju award designer competition
- "Second empty"! Why is it so popular for the ambassador to China to bring goods?
- Radio and television and other four departments: minors are prohibited from participating in live broadcasting, reward and engaging in live broadcasting
- E-commerce information / dry goods of "February 25 express" on e-monkey.com, which gathers new e-commerce news all over the world
- Remote control boot, easy office weapon: sunflower boot box K3 hands-on experience
- The return rate of Ningde times Shanghai Port factory is 90%, and the production capacity returns to the pre epidemic level
- The graduate student talked with the liar for 3 hours and was cheated by 740000. He didn't wake up until his girlfriend dissuaded him
- Frontline ｜ the new hi version of extreme fox alpha s is launched, equipped with Huawei's full stack intelligent driving scheme + Hongmeng car machine OS
- How to create a successful entry in the Encyclopedia of business people
- Hardcore observation 629 when Google Docs encountered poetry, it crashed
- Consumer level Raptor ultimate nuclear bomb zen4 version thread Ripper rushed to 96 core 192 threads
- Microsoft edge team sends an open letter to recruit chrome kernel plug-in developers
- Samsung Galaxy Z flip4 exposure: Xiaolong 8 plus + 3400mah combination is unique
- Huawei's first high-level automatic driving car, extreme fox alpha s, has a new hi version on the market: from 397900 yuan
- Xiaolong 8 plus flagship Samsung Galaxy Z fold4 / flip4 Online
- Scientists have developed a new quantum bit platform based on solid-state neon
- Professional "stenographer" and private "translator" Sogou recording translation pen experience
- Let's start ｜ how to quickly start making high-quality videos?
- "Cloud office" is recognized by the workplace
- Transformation marketing plan of physical stores: how to do well in short video marketing?
- Working remotely from home, these software are very practical
- After several renames and mergers, how can it be selected as a model school?
- Gao Lina, the "Iron Lady of dairy industry", retired, and modern animal husbandry entered the "Mengniu era"
- Netizens editing encyclopedia entries involving infringement Baidu was sentenced to 6 yuan
- Phenomenon: what is the reason why the entry of smart home encyclopedia refuses to be updated?
- "That's what I'm busy with."
- Will the ENS domain name become a "new favorite" be the next NFT boom?
- Another new perspective on 5g: 356 cities rank first in China
- Decoding AI open source technology application and future trend
- 2021 mobile phone SOC chip ranking inventory: more than 40 models, there is always one by your side
- BYD: the emission of Changsha Yuhua Industrial Park complies with relevant national regulations and standards
- The game version number has become a "hard currency" industry, and the "war of robbing millions of people" is difficult to reproduce
- The new hi version of Jihu alpha s, a high-end intelligent driving pure electric car, is on the market at a price of 397800 yuan
- There are no cases related to acute hepatitis in children with unknown causes in China
- What's it like to eat birthday cake in the holding room?