current position:Home>MINISO was sold short, Ye Guofu's 10 yuan store is not doing well?

MINISO was sold short, Ye Guofu's 10 yuan store is not doing well?

2022-08-06 13:14:32Bohu Finance

图片来源@视觉中国

图片来源@视觉中国

文 | 伯虎财经,作者 | 东篱

7月13日,名创优品登陆港交所,敲钟仪式上,Ye Guofu ambition full:“Return to Hong Kong double major listed,对名创优品Is an important milestone again,We stood in a more stable platform、A new starting point of the higher.”然而,话音刚落,Hong Kong break. 

祸不单行,两周后的7月26日,名创优品After the blue whale capital(Blue Orca Capital)Short the sniper,一份长达30Page to short the report名创优品的“多宗罪”.报告一出,名创优品U.S. stocks slump in the night15%,The next day Hong Kong fell over10%. 

(The blue whale capital report part)

名创优品的“三宗罪”

有着“杀人鲸”Known as the blue whale capital has repeatedly to do air almost shares,新氧、中国飞鹤、万国数据、Spell of all was the goal.根据“杀人鲸”的报告,它对名创优品Put forward the question mainly concentrated in the following3点: 

其一,The core business model a false.名创优品Declared in China99%Stores by an independent franchisee operation,But the agency after7个月的调查发现,有620Many stores by the名创优品Executives or close to the chairman of the board of directors of the company's personal secret owns and operates.The blue whale capital speculation,名创优品或在“Secretly take”Many of the costs of traditional retailers,Rather than its hype light assets of franchise mode. 

其二,Chairman of embezzlement.名创优品With Ye Guofu formed a joint venture,Ye Guofu hold80%股份,名创优品持有20%.2021年10月,名创优品以6.95One hundred million yuan to buy the Ye Guofu hands that80%的股份,To the joint venture and Ye Guofu never invest any money. 

其三,零售下滑.名创优品2021财年90.72亿元的营收较2018Peak value of the fiscal year170One hundred million yuan have shrunk by40%以上.并且从2020年至今,名创优品The franchise fees from8万元/Cuts in to2.98万元/年;Product deposit also from75万元降至35万元,这可能意味着名创优品Brand value is falling. 

名创优品The core of the business model from ah period lasted,China merchants to join also名创优品To the rapid expansion of fundamental.“杀人鲸”This question is directed at名创优品的发展根基,尽管名创优品紧急回应,Rejected the first two charges,But the decline in revenue is indisputable fact that. 

名创优品回应部分)

数据显示,2019财年至2021财年,名创优品实现营收93.95亿元、89.79亿元及90.72亿元,Neither breakthrough billions.相较2016至2018财年的100亿元、120亿元、170亿元,营收大幅缩水. 

Revenue growth or caused by the number of stores growth is slowing,名创优品In the prospectus has made it clear that,Store expansion network capacity is a key driver of revenue growth.而最近两年名创优品New stores each year only to497家和527家,Far less than the peak of the New Year800家门店. 

While growth also in widening losses,2019至2021财年,名创优品净亏损分别为2.94亿元、2.6亿元、14.29亿元,3年累计亏损近20亿元. 

营收缩水、Slowing expansion in、亏损拉大,“百国千亿万店”The strategic goals of the drifting away,名创优品The future development of also seemed to be stuck.而就在几年前,Ye Guofu also debut at harvard business school, talk about,名创优品Also was muji、Established companies such as uniqlo as a“全球最可怕的对手”,Is this all turned out to be a fraud? 

名创优品没有秘密”

叶国富曾说:“Almost all the big dreams come from a small idea,And all the retail giant,By a small grocery store grow up.” 

As a senior grocery store boss,Once the fire through the streets of ah me shop is his play with the rest of the,After the encounter with a barrage of electricity,Wave a hand to say thousands of stores shut off.Then a trip to Japan he had transformation“优质、创意、高性价比”The household department of boutique idea,这才有了2013年横空出世的名创优品

Ye Guofu and individual name“叶大炮”,Once famously admixture into ma and wang jianlin bet:10年后(刚好今年),如果电商在中国零售市场份额占50%,Mr Wang will give ma a $,如果没到,Ma give Mr Wang a $.2016年,We haven't bet due,Ye Guofu buy that《广州日报》Such as newspaper front page,Addressed the ma:“1个亿,我帮你给!”2The days in guangzhou again《羊城晚报》On the front page from dong mingzhu:“董事长+一个亿.一起来,过千亿.” 

What makes Ye Guofu so crazy? 

At the time of Ye Guofu do have crazy capital.名创优品只用了3年就从1Stores do1500家店、实现了从0到100亿的销售额,And successfully put out to sea,In the U.S.、泰国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯等多个国家,Confident for the future Ye Guofu conveniently put forward in the second year“百国千亿万店”的战略目标,并在2018Year launched the listing plan.2020年,名创优品登陆美股,Value of broken billions,Listed in the United States became the first Chinese entity retail brand,“The world's largest comprehensive value retailers own brand”Brand started from now on. 

若要总结名创优品近10年来的发展史,“快”Word came out. 

First of all, set up shop is fast.名创优品Nearly two years expansion speed is slower,Also reached the annual500The new opening speed,The peak year thousands of also off.截至目前,名创优品Global stores have breakthrough5000家,其中国内3197家,分布在全国的360个城市;海外1916家,Covers around the world100个国家和地区. 

名创优品The rapid expansion of thanks to its asset light joining model.以2021年为例,名创优品在全国的3168家门店中,有3146家为加盟店,仅有5家为官方直营店.Franchisees can share turnover every day38%(Food and beverage as33%),But need to bear the payment for the deposit、门店装修、Store rent and staff wages、Hydropower and other daily business spending,Stores, distribution and sales by the名创优品统一管理.Through this kind of fashionable,名创优品Both achieved rapid expansion,Also realized the light asset operation,降低了经营风险. 

The second is the new fast.名创优品施行“711理念”,即每周7天从10000A product ideas to research,Finally introduced about100个新SKU,Keep fresh goods,Let the consumer into the shop, every time a new product can buy,Improve the inside frequency. 

Fast on new is a powerful supply chain support behind.名创优品自有一套“以量制价、买断定制、不压货款”The methodology of supply chain,By increasing the order size compression to reduce production cost and the cost,At last, through the brand force for white card commodities increase premium.名创优品Suppliers of big shop sign contract,For some of the core quality supplier,名创优品At investment to ensure the supply source,从而塑造了名创优品“三高三低”The core of the product advantages,即高品质、高颜值、高频率;低成本、低毛利、低价格. 

Stack stores the formation of the rapid expansion of scale effect,名创优品Can lower the product cost again,To consolidate its price advantage,At the same time expand the profit space.财报显示,名创优品的“低毛利”In the first quarter of this year up to30.2%,较上年同期28.1%Gross margins and growth by. 

But the pattern of offline store is simple,Lives in a small articles of daily use where I can buy,名创优品It is no more than a capital.As the capital betting on consumer market in recent years,KK集团、诺米(NOME)、九木杂物社、Hibiscus life was born,In terms of product positioning and core user groups with名创优品正面竞争. 

名创优品Tried to diversification ofX-Strategy also mediocre,Incubation brands such as beauty makeup collection storeWOW COLOUR、会员制饰品集合店ACC超级饰、潮玩集合店TOP TOYAnd high-end beauty makeup storesHAYDON中,只有TOP TOYAchieve sales revenue,But its share of the market also is only1.1%,Can only play in the competitive tide market ranked seventh. 

And because the outbreak again and again,名创优品Same-store sales decline significantly,从2019财年的270万元降至2021财年的190万元.但名创优品90%Income from the offline,This not only affect their sales revenue,Also severely compressed the joining trader profit margins,进而导致名创优品Expansion speed slow,Initial incomes fall. 

更为雪上加霜的是,随着线上流量触顶,After spell with extreme low price rise a lot,Established electrical business giants also start“十元店”生意,比如京东的“京造十元店”,阿里的“Tao's ten dollar store”. 

名创优品没有秘密》A word from the book quoted Ye Guofu:“互联网时代的创业,要么彻底拥抱互联网,要么从事互联网影响不到的行业.”事实证明,The Internet is affected Ye Guofu“10元店”生意. 

线上还是线下,名创优品的伪命题

As a representative of the offline entity retail brand,名创优品There is no give up online this channel,Even said it would“Continue with the online business”,Implement the strategy of full channel. 

名创优品Consumption of each year into the shop, people have20亿之多,By paying attention to the public, namely send shopping bag way has accumulated a large number of fans.目前,名创优品拥有超过5700万注册会员,The private domain users more than2000万,Retention rates close to75%.并在2020In the height of the epidemic,Rely on the private domain has realized the online300%的增长. 

In addition to power the private domain,名创优品也在抖音、快手、B站、The little red book and taobao live public domain platforms such as continuous“刷脸”.早在2019Years had on eu her studio,Products launched1Minutes sold nearly4万单.截至2021财年,名创优品Online sales have accounted for the total domestic sales of nearly1/10. 

发力线上,Also means that the flow of high cost.2019至2021财年,伴随名创优品Power electricity and new traffic,The promotion and advertising costs from0.86亿元飙升至2.15亿元. 

But result is not satisfactory.据了解,名创优品Two official accounts in trill platform“名创优品旗舰店”与“名创优品”分别有43.7万和51.6万粉丝,But could not only dozens of people watch online,Most live with sales invoice field in thousands of yuan,Sales even as a grocery store in the middle of the night went live.名创优品的2022年Q2财报数据也显示,The quarter e-commerce revenue1.7亿元,In addition to the private domain small program of electrical business channel revenue shortfalls6000万元,占比仅为35%. 

究其原因,Maybe in offline consumption scenarios for the advantage of名创优品,Online does not depend on its products successfully to break.在名创优品最为核心的10元到50元价格带,有大量的“白牌”And small and medium-sized brand by quickly、抖音的KOL、KOC迅速崛起,While the white card also comes from“Good contract”.而且名创优品The quality of the product itself is not enough resistance to play,截至发稿,名创优品Black cat complaint up to1396件,Complaints are related to product quality more. 

(黑猫投诉截图) 

And partners to offline franchisees for名创优品发力线上,There are plenty of online discount and platform activity will let offline bosses“很受伤”.Less revenue earnings has made the joining trader can't make money,长此以往,退出将会是早晚的事. 

与这些问题相比,“杀人鲸”The sniper is but a little thing,在名创优品28After Sunday night in response to shorting charges,The secondary market and gives a positive reflection,股价有所回升.Hope fast full10岁的名创优品Don't like the past ah,Only a generation short memories. 

参考来源: 

  • 斑马消费:名创优品Be sold short behind:全球第一,No profit 
  • Phoenix net electricity institute:“Flat for dark horse”名创优品,在直播间被“平替” 
  • 虎嗅:被抖音“绑架”的名创优品 
  • 惊蛰研究所:名创优品Will be the next rui fu? 

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