current position:Home>The tourism industry is changing darkly, and a new wave of value remodeling has emerged

The tourism industry is changing darkly, and a new wave of value remodeling has emerged

2022-11-24 19:00:05Deep Eye Finance

图片来源@视觉中国

图片来源@视觉中国

文 | 深眸财经,作者 | 秦沁

旅游业,Can also carry?

毫无疑问,2022Years of tourism must accept the ask.From the first half of the trough,In July and August「小阳春」,Again plummet from late August,Tourism to sit a roller coaster ride,Volatility and uncertainty is always accompanied by.

According to the text brigade headquarters sampling data,2022In the domestic tourism total m20.94亿,比上年同期减少5.95亿,同比下降22.1%.其中,The third quarter of domestic tourist trips6.39亿,同比下降21.9%.

很明显,Industry has a low,Is waiting for a turning point.

But turning point accurately determine?不能,Only the determination of fuzzy.就像巴菲特所说的,宁要模糊的正确,也不要精确的错误.在「深眸财经」看来,作为最受疫情影响的行业之一,Domestic tourism market and the industry chain has been profound changes have taken place in,不管是商家、景区、OTA平台,Fantasy back to the past are not real.

Compared with the predicted industry recovery time node,Perhaps we should think more,We are facing how to market,It what is happening in the change?Industry should be how to layout to deal with?未来的机会在哪里?

新政「撩拨」消费欲望,Open a new repair

实际上,Tourism spring is not far. 

过去十几年,China's tourism industry enjoyed decades of boom.根据国家统计局数据,2016~2019In domestic tourism income accounted forGDP的比重从5.28%增长到5.81%.2019年前三季度,Domestic tourism accumulated to45.97亿,比2022年高出54.4%. 

换句话说,National travel demand did not disappear,Just be inhibited the epidemic.Once the external environment“松绑”,Pent-up“弹簧”Will quickly place. 

所以,We see tourism was slightly“撩拨”一下,就又“支棱”起来. 

比如7月份,新疆、Western Tibet and yunnan some popular tourist passengers increased significantly,以318国道、独库公路、草原天路、青藏公路、Qinghai lake road, represented by a group of road、Rv swim line popular hot,Even once formed congestion,Several topics about tourism on the microblogging hot search. 

According to the China tourism academy according,7Month total tourists increase62.2%,The national railway transport cumulative passengers2.24亿人次,Average daily send passengers yoy increase30.9%.同程旅行平台上以“夜游”为关键词的搜索量翻倍,其中周末“夜游”搜索量最高,较日常“夜游”搜索量增长超2成.It was in the third quarter,Travel with routine monthly active users、Monthly fee user operating indexes such as record. 

再比如,Several policy measures to help the tour market of“复苏”.11月11日,Article 20 state WeiJianWei announced measures,Clear will intensify efforts to control“一刀切”、“层层加码”现象,取消了入境航班熔断机制. 

11月15日,The text brigade headquarters issued a notice again,Across the provincial tourism activities and risk during the implementation of the linkage management no longer,自2021年8Month from across the province tourism“熔断”Mechanism to stop.Only one hour,同程旅行数据显示,Platform with group tour product searches on the rise in the same time super6倍,机票、Train ticket search volume were up182%和97%. 

紧接着17日、18And continuous release for scenic spots、旅行社、Notice of the location performance,Reiterated that no“一刀切”,Eased the tension,Consumer travel will also be further activate. 

一边是冰,一边是火. 

风起于青萍之末,就是在这「将变」和「未变」之间,Desire to consume with policy optimization,Industry is from「低谷」挣脱,A new repair. 

11月22日,同程旅行(0780.HK)披露2022年第三季度财报,实现收入20.5亿元,同比增长5.6%,经调净利润2.5亿元,经调整净利润率12.3%. 

As tourism「润滑剂」,Trip with this kind of OTATo performance rapid recovery after the market recovery,Is both a corroborating data,Also from the side to give industry a new round of recovery cycle injection of confidence. 

下沉「崛起」,本地「破界」

Churchill said a word:Never waste any a crisis. 

疫情三年,Based on the profound change of the domestic tourism market and the industry chain,Even if a new round of recovery cycle open,Tourism also back to less than in the past,In any industry, changes in temperature,How to find and respond to the change,Will into opportunities is the top priority of. 

那么,A new round of recovery cycle under,Domestic tourism appeared what changes?或许,From the same trip results we can see just a little. 

一方面,Sinking market rapid rise,Or will become the future new pillar and a new engine. 

截至第三季度,With the trip of the first-tier cities registered users of the total number of registered users about86.7%,In the third quarter WeChat platform about60%的新付费用户来自中国的三线或以下城市,Low tier cities hotel room nights grew nearly10%. 

China more than seventy percent of the population from three lines and the city,Along with the economic development level of continued ascension、城镇化进程不断推进、The construction of infrastructure and logistics system constantly improve、居民可支配收入增加,Sinking markets show unprecedented consumption potential. 

Spell in sinking market popular a lot,Look forward to tomorrow's tourism,Regardless of user size or consumption potential,Under the sink market is becoming a new cycle,The life-blood of the tourism market and even backbone strength. 

另一方面,Emerging in the local market,The local and surrounding short-distance demand. 

According to the data of brigade headquarters,国庆假日期间选择跨省游和省内跨市游的游客比例分别下降了14.4和9.5个百分点,前往城郊公园、城市周边乡村、城市公园的游客占比居于前三位,分别达23.8%、22.6%和16.8%. 

对比来看,2020In National Day swim and swim across the province proportion in the province is about7:3,而到了2022 Year of the Dragon Boat Festival this proportion is turned into a9:1,Average travel distance from213Km continue to107.9 千米. 

很显然,Swim around and short-distance travel has become a new selection,This phenomenon can also be reflected in the earnings of listed companies,Such as the third quarter with ticket online penetration industry to speed up and effective customer strategies,With trip ticket sales in the third quarter year-on-year growth100%.It is also the localization based on the needs of improve,With routine travel accommodation reservation income even during the outbreak realized26.9%的增长. 

目前,Both sink market and local demand,携程、同程旅行、Meituan platform are actively meet,But to associate the pulse,却并非易事. 

以下沉市场为例,Compared with line city,Sinking market users for offline channels rely on more obvious,How to effectively touch of sinking market consumer key.In the previous quarters,Stay with routine travel sweep through the hotel code、Scenic spots and yards swimming、Intelligent bus travel such as scene has set up a platform will be offline import passenger flow line access.而如今,As this batch of new customers to online consumption habits,The flow of new customers value also began to gradually shift to commercial value. 

Again for instance local market,Its ability to the full integration of multiple formats require higher,Once have deterred many participants. 2021年9At the end of the organization structure adjustment with trip,Set up accommodation with the local consumer group,Focus on excursion and local consumption,Integrating all transportation service for business travel,还提出“Wisdom passenger”,Through the smart car ticketing equipment and car operators to establish strategic cooperation in urban and rural areas and,The layout of the expanding transport business in the country,For short trips and local consumption capacity. 

Dark change as,新潮迭起

尼古拉斯·塔勒布在《反脆弱》一书中写道:“The wind will blow out the candles,却能使火越烧越旺……对随机性、不确定性和混沌也是一样:你要利用它们,而不是躲避.” 

诚然,Whether sink market or local market,In essence is a kind of structural change and consumption alternative,How to deal with this kind of change has spawned new layers and service. 

比如,Camping this year heat up,11月21Japanese brigade headquarters and other departments issued《About the camp promote healthy and orderly development of tourism and leisure guidance》,Actively guide related text brigade markets around the layout. 

再比如,携程推出“乡村旅游振兴”计划、Food smell ten-day Lin will、Holiday farm, etc,With trip held the tournament、设计“Camping in the new plan”专题活动,探索“Camping season”“旅行+X”等新玩法. 

Take the water festival is,Through innovative music play,In hengdian water festival held during the,Scenic spot orders daily highest month-on-month growth in hengdian studios250%,The divergence from,With trip also introduce“微信状态X足迹地图”、Phil section of dreaming、Dozens of new digital collection,Attracted hundreds of thousands of passengers user participation. 

Industry within these actions,Not only will be a new generation of travelers more closely,But also activate the user is located surrounding tourism market. 

而这,Is the industry in the dark is to find new opportunities. 

数据显示,截至8月18Day trip with WeChat small program since its inception to heavy cumulative access user breakthrough billion.The third quarter of the average monthly live users to2.8亿,平均月付费用户达到3680万, 12Months of paying customers2亿,同比增加了2.2%. 

当然,This is its service to do thick,Companies to form long-term competitiveness a chance,Drive growth logic by「规模」向「价值」转型. 

比如,With routine travel online“With the process list of good living”,在APPOnline local consumer projects page,Set food and beverage、Traffic, local columns,And in combination with starbucks、肯德基、McDonald's and other famous offline brand or coupon,Access to the city bus service card,With yulin airport、延安机场、汉中机场、Ankang airport four shaanxi branch signed a strategic cooperation agreement, etc. 

在任何一个行业,From the scale to high quality requires a catalyst,Anxiety can be flow,Also can be in the industry volume,Even the business model of dimension reduction to crack down on,Tourism can find value in the trough of the direction,In industry recovery find new growth opportunities,实属不易. 

As the epidemic prevention and control policy optimization,Industry haze will eventually be dispelled,得益于对“毛细血管”The value of the deep and systemic l d,The value of a rare release window will appear,That's what makes the trillions of market to boil a,War of the vast heaven and earth. (本文首发钛媒体APP)

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